South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/03/13 13z---->

[Andy Bown]

Re the regional threads, there are those of us who live in between the SW and CS parts so knowing what's happening and reading discussion from both is interesting and vital.

I was surprised to be woke by heavy rain at 05.30 as I thought the warm front was bringing just drizzly stuff, however the radar revealed quite a rash of heavy showers. A real contrast to other mornings this week which have all been bright and freezing cold.

[Coast]

Morning neighbours!!!

Lots of rain coming, but it looks like some convective activity may be on the cards, with a rumble or two of thunder in prospect from GFS:

I've put some specific charts in the convective thread regarding the potential for this weekend, mainly tomorrow:

http://forum.netweat...94#entry2641994

Edited March 15, 2013 by Coast

[AWD]

Some ever developing rain over West Wales and on the approach up the Bristol Channel now, ready to give us a soaking later today, especially more western counties.

Edited March 15, 2013 by AWD

[Bobd29]

Re the regional threads, there are those of us who live in between the SW and CS parts so knowing what's happening and reading discussion from both is interesting and vital.

I was surprised to be woke by heavy rain at 05.30 as I thought the warm front was bringing just drizzly stuff, however the radar revealed quite a rash of heavy showers. A real contrast to other mornings this week which have all been bright and freezing cold.

Wiltshire must be east SW or perhaps west CS??????? Any guesses?

[Fitzwis]

Looking at the radar and models this morning has made me realise how diverse our weather can be in the south west. Only three days ago, we here in the C.I. we're experiencing our worst blizzard for 30 years. Today, we have a strengthening south west to west flow with the prospect of heavy rainfall overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning followed by some potent convective potential. At this present moment in time, FI for me is at +96h and I wouldn't be too surprised to see upgrades in the short term for the up and coming cold spell progged for next week. The form horse for me all winter has been ECMWF, with UKMO and GFS following in it's wake (in that order) when it comes to predicting colder outbreaks from the east and I am anticipating the current predicted pattern to shift a little further south and east with each run, although there will be one or two spanners thrown in the works for good measure just to keep us all on our toes. To be honest, if I don't see anymore snow this winter, I won't be overly disappointed for obvious reasons but I do hope you guys over on the mainland prosper next week. Oh, and if you do, maybe you could throw just a little more over this way for recent times sake

Edited March 15, 2013 by Fitzwis

[Mapantz]

It's not too bad here, sunny spells and 8.9°C

[cornish snow]

Looks like game over for today,solid cloud base to the west/s.west now.Rain not to far away.

[Argyle1980]

Looks like game over for today,solid cloud base to the west/s.west now.Rain not to far away.

not good is it!, came in wet and windy where I am so now working undercover doing some painting!

[AWD]

The rain has arrived here now. Cool and wet sums it up and I don't expect much change for the rest of the day, aside from the intensity of the rainfall increasing.

[Beast of Plympton]

I wish this rain was falling as snow!!

[Dorsetbred]

Last remnants of sunshine holding on by the finger nails here.

[Costa Del Fal]

Horrible dank and wet here now!

[SunnySouthCoast]

Had a little rain earlier & sunny spells since. Temp is 9C after a min of 4C

[AWD]

The latest NAE showing a good scattering of shower activity around the region tomorrow;

Will look into this in more detail as further 12z data comes out.

[AWD]

Showers of a wintry flavour also evident in the NAE;

Could be some decent activity tomorrow, looking forward to it. And again Sunday?

[Argyle1980]

Well the next couple of days are looking Interesting , I do like a surprise ! :-)

[AWD]

Netweather only has the ever useful Skew-T chart for Devon. Going to have a search around see if I can find further diagrams for other areas of the region, unless anyone knows of anywhere?

Anyway, here is the convective potential across Devon at noon tomorrow;

This is based on the GFS output I must add. Still not fully clued up on reading these myself, been studying them the past few weeks since Ian let us know of their usefulness in forecasting convective activity.

What the above suggests to me is good instability. With warm temperatures aloft and colder temperatures further down, sleet and snow is possible in the showers.

The Lapse rate between the Dewpoint and air Temperature stays close by until 400mb. This shows saturated air aloft with high cloud tops expected.

A gusty west/south westerly wind is expected, this could support a Bristol Channel streamer.

Edited March 15, 2013 by AWD

[Mapantz]

Well the rain has set in here now!

Tomorrow is looking fun, there's good potential for storm activity, cold ELT's are good for hail development which in turn is good for lightning.

Although a scattered affair, the south west could see some potent storms kicking off.

Right up my street!

[AWD]

Latest GFS showing a few hundred Joules of CAPE developing over the SW by tomorrow afternoon;

[Mapantz]

Tipping down here now, intermittent downpours with large convective drops.

[AWD]

GFS shows shower activity centred over Wales and the SW tomorrow afternoon;

Hints of some sort of "arced squall line" coming up from the SW, with numerous small shower cells in the core of the depression behind the potential squall.

[Erbyskerby]

Miserable day traipsing around Truro - dark skies and constant rain

Anything exciting coming up or more of the same this weekend? Will have to have a peek in the model thread and see what's occurring.

[AWD]

Well the rain has set in here now!

Tomorrow is looking fun, there's good potential for storm activity, cold ELT's are good for hail development which in turn is good for lightning.

Although a scattered affair, the south west could see some potent storms kicking off.

Right up my street!

Agree with you there, hail likely in some of the cells;

[AWD]

Miserable day traipsing around Truro - dark skies and constant rain

Anything exciting coming up or more of the same this weekend? Will have to have a peek in the model thread and see what's occurring.

Tomorrow, and to a lesser extent Sunday, it will be a showery regime.

Could see anything from rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder, lightning and squalls tomorrow down your way.

If convective weather is your thing, have a radar day, could be rather interesting indeed.

[jethro]

Well, it's been a positively vile day here today, such a contrast to yesterday. I'm yearning for some sunshine and warmth, longing for summer now.