South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/03/13 13z---->

[AWD]

Updated FAX chart for tomorrow shows what I was on about in an earlier post;

A trough in the flow over the SW supportive of a squall like feature and likely to be accompanied by a large scattering of shower cell activity.

[cornish snow]

Miserable day traipsing around Truro - dark skies and constant rain

I can say the same thing most saturdays. Just change the last 4 words with, following wife.

[Erbyskerby]

I can say the same thing most saturdays. Just change the last 4 words with, following wife.

Ha ha ha. Such a bloke! Must admit I saw one or two fellas that looked in a similar predicament this afternoon!

Convective stuff sounds interesting - will definitely be radar watching - thanks for the heads up AWD.

[cornish snow]

I see the MOD thread is all exited again over a another snowy spell.

Might be missing something,but just see wind and rain for our neck of the woods

Cold all locked up to our north.Suppose things could move south again.

Watch out channel islands.

[AWD]

I see the MOD thread is all exited again over a another snowy spell.

Might be missing something,but just see wind and rain for our neck of the woods

Cold all locked up to our north.Suppose things could move south again.

Watch out channel islands.

Don't worry, they aren't talking about our neck of the woods!

Up norf is where all the hype is based.

[Nights King]

Don't worry, they aren't talking about our neck of the woods!

Up norf is where all the hype is based.

So you don't think snow is possible for high ground next few days? I hold out hope after the last let down of a cold spell...

[AWD]

So you don't think snow is possible for high ground next few days? I hold out hope after the last let down of a cold spell...

It's possible but unlikely IMO.

Too little support for a confident forecast of snow down here currently, with more favourable support for snowfall further north.

However, as tomorrow may prove, some quick, non settling snowfall is possible with evaporative cooling.

[Nights King]

It's possible but unlikely IMO.

Too little support for a confident forecast of snow down here currently, with more favourable support for snowfall further north.

However, as tomorrow may prove, some quick, non settling snowfall is possible with evaporative cooling.

Even gfs forecast here on net weather gives me 10 - 60% chance of snow every day up until wednesday at moment so with evaporative cooling or nocturnal cooling I'd be surprised if we didnt see something on high ground even met office regional says maybe snow on high ground for next few days. I'd agree its looking limited at sea level for south but it could still change more in favour.

Its only 4c here now under rain

Edited March 15, 2013 by mullender83

[Dorsetbred]

6.1C down here with a constant 25mph wind gusting 42mph

[cerneman]

Rainy day with some heavy bursts of rain and blustery winds,,,,,Before rain this morning the Hares got little frisky on back field.....

[Snowkissed]

Rainy day with some heavy bursts of rain and blustery winds,,,,,Before rain this morning the Hares got little frisky on back field.....

Wow! wonderful photos there. Thank you for sharing.

[Argyle1980]

I see on the BBC News weather we have snow shows forecast for Sunday morning , winter is moving away at a slow pace.

Have to say things are looking cold in N/E Europe.

[Andy Bown]

Ian's forecast on Point West early this evening had the Cold Front and rain clearing Wiltshire by 08.00-09.00.

Judging by the latest radar I'm going for it taking several hours longer and not until midday or even early afternoon, I know they suggested

pulses/waves of rain running along the front but by now I was expecting the furthest West to be over Somerset/East Devon and not right into

Cornwall/West Wales!

Such a slower clearance will inevitably affect convective chances in the afternoon except for further W/SW where the sun breaks through

during the morning.

[AWD]

With scope for realisation of upper lapse rates now entering the far SW behind the frontal boundary exiting the region overnight, dry air is forecast to influence the atmosphere.

With colder air overrunning moist mild air, strong instability will become ever evident above the LFC and along with low humidity values, isolated storms may break out across the SW tomorrow during peak solar input.

Currently I see any sferic activity as a small and isolated risk, but possible.

More of note will be the mixture of PPN types falling across the region, helped by modest ELT values.

Expect sleet, rain, snow and hail to feature across the region in showers tomorrow.

Interesting day ahead.

Edited March 15, 2013 by AWD

[festivalking]

Horrendous trip up to dorchester tonight. Not sure what was worse the squally rain and wind or the erratic performance of other road users. Consensus then this rain band is sticking round tomorrow?

[AWD]

Latest NAE has the peak convective time between roughly 14:00 and 21:00 tomorrow:

Again showing a wintry flavour to some of the showers;

As someone said above, the quicker this frontal band clears away the quicker convection will get going. At the moment its looking like a slow affair, with associated cloudcover hindering convection during the morning, with it not until the afternoon when the sun can get the Cb's building and things get going.

Edited March 15, 2013 by AWD

[AWD]

Estofex have the first level one warning out of the season for the SW tomorrow;

Namely for isolated large hail and tornado risk.

Edited March 15, 2013 by AWD

[Purga]

Frontal snow into Cornwall next weekend

Pushing up NE

Dartmoor's turn this time around - fingers crossed.

Edited March 15, 2013 by Purga

[Beast of Plympton]

Frontal snow into Cornwall next weekend

Pushing up NE

Dartmoor's turn this time around - fingers crossed.

I like the sound of that!!

[Argyle1980]

I like the sound of that!!

well we all missed the last one...... Maybe this one could give us a surprise :-)

[khodds]

It's like we are back to square one again with the rain. I'm so fed up of it. I really hope we get a decent summer, it's like we've been in the land of eternal winter for the past 18 months. Have booked a two week summer holiday this year to Spain in July. At least we will be almost guaranteed two weeks of warmth and sun. We normally only do one week.

[Argyle1980]

What's this........ A second chance maybe?

[Beast of Plympton]

well we all missed the last one...... Maybe this one could give us a surprise :-)

You never know.... looks good so far. The southwest can really get hit hard from the lows popping up from the southwest and mixing with the cold air, lets go out with a bang!!

[Argyle1980]

I do love the unexpected .

:-)

[Argyle1980]

You never know.... looks good so far. The southwest can really get hit hard from the lows popping up from the southwest and mixing with the cold air, lets go out with a bang!!

would love to go out with a bang and as long as we keep hold of those cold uppers I think we could get hit by something very special .