Climate Change In The News - Spring 2013

[Methuselah]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract

[Gray-Wolf]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract

Seems we have even more evidence of the warming? Some legs of the conveyor are not that long and any temp rise in upwelling waters leaves more 'free energy' left in the atmosphere (energy once used on warming up cold water)

We are warned that we still have a lot of warming already 'in the pipeline', deep oceans must hold a sizable chunk of this energy?

It also appears, to me, that the warmer the deep oceans are the less cooling of subducted waters goes on so more energy is available to further warm the deeps?

[knocker]

Strength in Numbers: Mathematicians Unite to Tackle Climate Change and Other Planetary Problems

2013 is the year of "Mathematics of Planet Earth" for hundreds of organizations around the

What do polar ice caps, guinea worm disease and wildfires have in common? All are being modeled with cutting-edge mathematics. Mathematical societies and institutes around the world are participating in "Mathematics of Planet Earth," or MPE, this year. They aim to study the math that underpins geologic and biological processes on our planet as well as encourage more math researchers to tackle these problems. Events are planned for the year 2013, but the organizers hope that the initiative will have lasting effects.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=mathematicians-unite-to-tackle-climate-change-and-other-planetary-problems&WT.mc_id=SA_sharetool_Twitter

[4wd]

http://onlinelibrary....50382/abstract

Seems we have even more evidence of the warming? Some legs of the conveyor are not that long and any temp rise in upwelling waters leaves more 'free energy' left in the atmosphere (energy once used on warming up cold water)

We are warned that we still have a lot of warming already 'in the pipeline', deep oceans must hold a sizable chunk of this energy?

It also appears, to me, that the warmer the deep oceans are the less cooling of subducted waters goes on so more energy is available to further warm the deeps?

Paywalled, there's an interesting in depth look at sea temperatures here.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/03/11/is-ocean-heat-content-data-all-its-stacked-up-to-be/

The warming that has been recorded can be well explained by natural processes.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Paywalled, there's an interesting in depth look at sea temperatures here.

http://bobtisdale.wo...acked-up-to-be/

The warming that has been recorded can be well explained by natural processes.

That's not what the article claims?

It basically claims the OHC data is unreliable.

[knocker]

I see he's a regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat. Not a complete surprise.

Edited March 28, 2013 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Paywalled, there's an interesting in depth look at sea temperatures here.

http://bobtisdale.wo...acked-up-to-be/

The warming that has been recorded can be well explained by natural processes.

But, by how much are those 'natural processes' needing to be stretched?

[knocker]

Making Sense of Sensitivity … and Keeping It in Perspective

Posted on 28 March 2013 by dana1981

Yesterday The Economist published an article about climate sensitivity – how much the planet's surface will warm in response to the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks. For the most part the article was well-researched, with the exception of a few errors, like calling financier Nic Lewis "an independent climate scientist." The main shortcomings in the article lie in its interpretation of the research that it presented.

For example, the article focused heavily on the slowed global surface warming over the past decade, and a few studies which, based of that slowed surface warming, have concluded that climate sensitivity is relatively low. However, as we have discussed on Skeptical Science, those estimates do not include the accelerated warming of the deeper oceans over the past decade, and they appear to be overly sensitive to short-term natural variability. The Economist article touched only briefly on the accelerated deep ocean warming, and oddly seemed to dismiss this data as "obscure."

The Economist article also referenced the circular Tung and Zhou (2013) paper we addressed here, and suggested that if equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2°C to a doubling of CO2, we might be better off adapting to rather than trying to mitigate climate change. Unfortunately, as we discussed here, even a 2°C sensitivity would set us on a path for very dangerous climate change unless we take serious steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

Ultimately it was rather strange to see such a complex technical subject as climate sensitivity tackled in a business-related publication. While The Economist made a good effort at the topic, their lack of expertise showed.

For a more expert take on climate sensitivity, we re-post here an article published by Zeke Hausfather at the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1942&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Gray-Wolf]

The paper on deep sea ocean temps is going to have certain posters running to either discredit the data or pretend it is a nothing? Deep sea warming is part of the 'drip, drip' GHG forcing but the larger impact Ice Loss forcing has my attention esp. this extreme winters end/early spring? If this is a taste of things to come then it is going to prove an expensive year for the N.Hemisphere (£80 million extra on heating for us this March???).

I do hope it is a sign that the blocking will spill out our way for the duration. Once the sun is up to strength we can bask in it whilst we contenplate more Grain basket drought and Russian Tundra wildfires ?

I said we should expect an increase in extremes and we appear to be already on that road?

[knocker]

The Yanks are waking up.

Stanford survey: Americans back preparation for extreme weather and sea-level rise

The majority of Americans express support for stronger coastal development codes, according to a Stanford survey.

Images told the story: lower Manhattan in darkness, coastal communities washed away, cars floating in muck. Superstorm Sandy, a harbinger of future extreme weather intensified by climate change, caught the country off guard in October.

Unprepared for the flooding and high winds that ensued, the East Coast suffered more than $70 billion in property damage and more than 100 deaths.

http://news.stanford.edu/pr/2013/pr-woods-adaptation-survey-032813.html

Edited March 28, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Nothing like experiencing , first hand, the onset of extreme weather events to have you see it's occurring though? The way the Jet patterns appear to be settling out puts the U.S. at risk of all the manifestations from inundation from the sea level rise we've already had (like Sandy did to Battery Park) to flooding to drought to drencho events to deep cold.

Events has shown them that Emperor Watts has no clothes !

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

We wouldn't want to miss that now, would we...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/175659/ghg_national_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf

[knocker]

Melting Ice and Cold Weather

The media are debating if the decrease in Arctic ice is related to this winter's cold weather in Germany. This post discusses the most recent current research about this including the most important figures from relevant studies.

http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/melting-ice-and-cold-weather.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

The Weekend Wonk: Sea Level Potholes and Speedbumps

A year ago I interviewed Oceanographer Josh Willis at AGU,(above) in regard to the sudden “pot-hole†in sea level rise that was then being observed – a sudden drop that had the denis-sphere all atwitter – “flaws in global warming theory†etc..

Josh did a nice job explaining how the large La Nina event of the previous year had actually moved so much water from ocean to land, that it was actually causing a temporary dip in sea level numbers.

Incredible? Now, the process has reversed, and instead of a “potholeâ€, we are seeing a “speed bump†in sea level, explained below by Skeptical Science.

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/03/30/sea-level-potholes-and-speedbumps/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[VillagePlank]

[knocker]

Published on Mar 29, 2013

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite captured this view of extensive sea-ice fracturing off the northern coast of Alaska. The event began in late-January and spread west toward Banks Island throughout February and March 2013. More details at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD...

[Guest pjl20101]

Found this from the daily mail website, don't know if it is true mind you:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301969/The-Arctic-greener-decades-rising-temperatures-lead-increase-plant-life.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Found this from the daily mail website, don't know if it is true mind you:

http://www.dailymail...plant-life.html

Makes sense. A warming Arctic will lead to more plant life. It's already happening, a northward "greening" has been observed by satellites.

The exact implications of this will be tricky to figure out though.

[knocker]

Marine scientist Ken Dunton talks about what the disappearing ice means for humans and animals in the "new" Arctic.

[knocker]

Volunteers use historic U.S. ship logbooks to uncover Arctic climate data

Citizen-scientists around the world are poring through digital versions of 19^th century logbooks of mariners who sailed from Pacific Northwest and California ports to explore the Arctic and chart the newly acquired Alaskan territories.

Changes in the Arctic climate are bringing new interest in those historic explorers’ observations. A volunteer effort launched last fall, headed by University of Washington climate scientist Kevin Wood with the support of the National Archives, enlists the help of citizen-scientists to examine digitized scans of the log entries and transcribe the information.

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/03/28/volunteers-use-historic-u-s-ship-logbooks-to-uncover-arctic-climate-data/

[knocker]

Record-breaking 2011 Lake Erie algae bloom may be sign of things to come

ANN ARBOR—The largest harmful algae bloom in Lake Erie's recorded history was likely caused by the confluence of changing farming practices and weather conditions that are expected to become more common in the future due to climate change.

Rather than an isolated, one-time occurrence, Lake Erie's monumental 2011 algae bloom was more likely a harbinger of things to come, according to

University of Michigan researchers and colleagues from eight other institutions.

The interdisciplinary team explored factors that may have contributed to the event and analyzed the likelihood of future massive blooms in the lake.

"Intense spring rainstorms were a major contributing factor, and such storms are part of a long-term trend for this region that is projected to get worse in the future due to climate change," said aquatic ecologist Donald Scavia, director of U-M's Graham Sustainability Institute. "On top of that we have agricultural practices that provide the key nutrients that fuel large-scale blooms."

A paper summarizing the team's findings is scheduled for online publication April 1 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-04/uom-r2l032713.php

[knocker]

Breeding birds vulnerable to climate change in Arctic Alaska

A story of winners and losers

A new report from the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) looked at the vulnerability of 54 breeding bird species to climate change impacts occurring by the year 2050 in Arctic Alaska. The assessment found that two species, the gyrfalcon and common eider are likely to be "highly" vulnerable, while seven other species would be "moderately" vulnerable to anticipated impacts. Five species are likely to increase in number and benefit from a warming climate.

Arctic Alaska harbors some of the most important breeding and staging grounds for millions of birds—many from around the world—representing more than 90 species. A rise in mean annual temperatures of at least 3.1 degrees Celsius in northern Alaska is expected by 2050, and will likely impact species in myriad ways.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-04/wcs-bb040213.php

[knocker]

'A better path' toward projecting, planning for rising seas on a warmer Earth

More useful projections of sea level are possible despite substantial uncertainty about the future behavior of massive ice sheets, according to Princeton University researchers.

In two recent papers in the journals Nature Climate Change and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the researchers present a probabilistic assessment of the Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level change. Their methodology folds observed changes and models of different complexity into unified projections that can be updated with new information. This approach provides a consistent means to integrate the potential contribution of both continental ice sheets — Greenland and Antarctica — into sea-level rise projections.

http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S36/50/04K42/

[knocker]

Smearing Climate Data

If a temperature event like we witnessed in the last century — a warming of around 0.9 deg.C in about 100 years — had happened at some other time in the last 11,300 years, would it have left some trace in the recent paleoclimate reconstruction of Marcott et al.?

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/04/03/smearing-climate-data/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Polar Maritime]