Climate Change In The News - Spring 2013

[Coast]

Climate change will threaten wine production, study shows

Global warming will make it difficult to raise grapes in traditional wine country, but will shift production to other regions

Bid adieu to Bordeaux, but also, quite possibly, a hello to Chateau Yellowstone. Researchers predict a two-thirds fall in production in the world's premier wine regions because of climate change.The study forecasts sharp declines in wine production from Bordeaux and Rhone regions in France, Tuscany in Italy and Napa Valley in California and Chile by 2050, as a warming climate makes it harder to grow Grapes in traditional wine country. But also anticipate a big push into areas once considered unsuitable. That could mean more grape varieties from northern Europe, including Britain, the US north-west and the hills of central China.

The most drastic decline was expected in Europe.

"The fact is that climate change will lead to a huge shakeup in the geographic distribution of wine production," said Lee Hannah, a senior scientist at Conservation International and an author of the study.

Researchers expect big changes in regions enjoying the cool winters and hot dry summers that produce good grapes. "It will be harder and harder to grow those varieties that are currently growing in places in Europe," Hannah said. "It doesn't necessarily mean that [they] can't be grown there, but it will require irrigation and special inputs to make it work, and that will make it more and more expensive." Wine grapes are known to be one of the most finicky of crops, sensitive to subtle shifts in temperature, rain and sunshine. The industry has been forward-looking when it comes to anticipating the effects of climate change. Wine experts have known for several years that a hotter, drier climate would change growing conditions in many of the most prized wine regions – forcing vineyards to mist grapes on the vine to protect them from the sun, or move sensitive vines to more hospitable terrain.

But the latest findings, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, still took the researchers by surprise. "We expected to see significant shifts, but we didn't expect to see shifts like these," said Hannah. The scientists used 17 different climate models to gauge the effects on nine major wine-producing areas. They used two different climate futures for 2050, one assuming a worst-case scenario with a 4.7C (8.5F) warming, the other a 2.5C increase. Both forecast a radical re-ordering of the wine world. The most drastic decline was expected in Europe, where the scientists found a 85% decrease in production in Bordeaux, Rhone and Tuscany.

The future was also bleak for wine growing areas of Australia.

The future was also bleak for wine growing areas of Australia, with a 74% drop, and California, with a 70% fall. Wine growers in the Cape area of South Africa would also be hit hard, with a 55% decline. Chile's wine producers would expect losses of about 40%, the study found.

Wine growers in the Cape area of South Africa would also be hit hard.

But climate change would also open up other parts of the world to grapes, as growers look for higher, cooler ground, the study found.

The industry is already scoping out potential new territory such as Tasmania. The findings could lead wine growers to strike out for wilderness areas around Yellowstone Park, or even scale higher into the hills of central China. Both areas could be prime areas for wine production, the study found. However, that search for new wine country could in turn create a whole new set of potential problems, for the wine growers of the new frontier.

Some newly identified wine growing regions of the future are wilderness areas – such as that around Yellowstone Park in the US, where there are already clashes between ranchers and wolves. In China, the suitable wine growing regions of the future lie squarely in the hill habitat of the endangered giant panda. Both are going to be heading for those same hills. "Wine is going to be on the move in the future as will wildlife," said Rebecca Shaw, a scientist for the Environmental Defence Fund and an author of the paper. "This adaptation has the potential to threaten the survival of wildlife."

Climate change would also open up other parts of the world to grapes, as growers look for higher, cooler ground.

http://www.guardian....wine-production

[knocker]

Not a reflection on future temps but might be of interest.

The TempLS monthly anomaly for March 2013 was 0.396°C, down slightly from 0.447° in February. I had actually reported a small decrease from Jan to Feb which with more data was converted to a small rise.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/templs-global-temp-down-005-in-march.html

[Hiya]

Not a reflection on future temps but might be of interest.

http://moyhu.blogspo...5-in-march.html

The anomoly over Britain looks a little on the high side assuming it is for surface temperature.

[VillagePlank]

The Iron Lady’s dedication to green matters contradicts the popular perception that she – and the Conservative party in general – was more concerned with commerce than carbon emissions. But trawling through the speech archives following news of her death yesterday, her dedication to protecting the environment is clear.

http://blogs.indepen...-green-matters/

Edited April 10, 2013 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

The consequences of a Blue Arctic

http://www.grinzo.com/energy/2013/04/10/the-consequences-of-a-blue-arctic/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Polar Maritime]

Those who doubt climate change could soon be forced to change their minds – if they want to succeed in school, that is. To prepare kids for adulthood, the American school system is incorporating climate change into its science curriculum.

Middle and high school students enrolled in the public American school system will soon be obliged to study climate change as a scientific phenomenon. In about 40 US states, students will receive extensive lessons on global warming as a man-made problem.

In order to get an A, students enrolled in US public schools will need to understand that “human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming),†according to the Next Generation Science Standards, which oversees state education curriculums. http://rt.com/usa/cl...lum-school-653/

Edited April 11, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[keithlucky]

Not true of the lakes if that drowning report is anything to go by? Lakes too thin to ice fish on yet drift ice (driven to the coast by an 'odd' high pressure system) blocks the coast in one region?

I wonder if there's anything else we need to know about the past winter up there Keith?New record broken for baltic ice

April 8, 2013 – BALTIC SEA – “Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,†ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda. On March 29th, 176,000 square kilometers of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice, a record for the time of year. On a map, it means about half of the central and northern parts are frozen over. Far north, the ice is both thick and difficult to break through. The date on which the ice reaches its maximum spread usually falls much earlier in the year. The previously latest date record was March 25th, 2008. That year, only 49,000 square kilometers of the Baltic was covered in ice, which was the smallest maximum spread of ice in the previous 100 years. “I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season,†said Karl Herlin, captain of the icebreaker Atle, currently working off the coast of LuleÃ¥ in northern Sweden. His crew is freeing up a path through the ice for the ship Rautaruukki that is picking its way to LuleÃ¥. It is one of the between five to 15 ships that Atle has assisted every day in the past week, the busiest so far this winter. “It’s kind of cool to see how the weather changes from year to year,†Herlin added. The Swedish Maritime Administration (Sjöfartsverket) has all its five icebreaking crews in service at the moment. According to the administration’s web map of the fleet’s activities, the icebreaker Odin is currently leading the way through the ice for eight ships south of SkellefteÃ¥. The remaining ice breakers are near Brahestad, Nordvalen and in the bay of Gävle. In certain locations the ships need help because the ice has become more compact,†Johny Lindvall at the Maritime Administration’s ice breaking control room told TT.  Southern parts of the Baltic Sea also retain some ice all the way past Stockholm down to the archipelago outside Västervik. “The cold is unusually stubborn, as normally the ice would have started to melt by now,†said Torbjörn Grafström at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). At first forecasters expected the Baltic ice to reach its maximum in late January, but a prolonged spell of high pressure that arrived over in early March caused new ice to form late in the season, resulting in the record-late date. –The Local

 

[cobbett]

Yep I know this is the Sun but according to the article - http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4881369/Is-the-UK-set-for-Arctic-weather.html

 

 

"Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice†towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation."

 

Interesting then that Julia in an interview  with "Geography In the News' dated June 211 was asked the followiing

9. What changes are we likely to experience in Britain’s weather in coming years as a result of climate change?

"Current predictions for later this century show that UK winters are likely to become milder and wetter. Summer weather is likely to be warmer but with less rainfall, although when the rain in summer does fall, it could be in the form of intense downpours."

 

 

No wonder so many people have an ambivalent attitude to Global Warming if so called respected experts keep changing there views based on an unusually cold month. I presume the Met Office will be back to forecasting mild winters when next March happens to be unusually Mild ??!!

Edited April 11, 2013 by cobbett

[4wd]

http://news.yahoo.com/report-global-warming-didnt-cause-big-us-drought-211545586.html

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Last year's huge drought was a freak of nature that wasn't caused by man-made global warming, a new federal science study finds.

Scientists say the lack of moisture usually pushed up from the Gulf of Mexico was the main reason for the drought in the nation's midsection.

Thursday's report by dozens of scientists from five different federal agencies looked into why forecasters didn't see the drought coming. The researchers concluded that it was so unusual and unpredictable that it couldn't have been forecast.

"This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said lead authorMartin Hoerling, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Climate change was not a significant part, if any, of the event."

 

[knocker]

James Hansen on retirement.

 

[Hiya]

Yep I know this is the Sun but according to the article - http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4881369/Is-the-UK-set-for-Arctic-weather.html

 

 

"Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice†towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation."

 

Interesting then that Julia in an interview  with "Geography In the News' dated June 211 was asked the followiing

9. What changes are we likely to experience in Britain’s weather in coming years as a result of climate change?

"Current predictions for later this century show that UK winters are likely to become milder and wetter. Summer weather is likely to be warmer but with less rainfall, although when the rain in summer does fall, it could be in the form of intense downpours."

 

 

No wonder so many people have an ambivalent attitude to Global Warming if so called respected experts keep changing there views based on an unusually cold month. I presume the Met Office will be back to forecasting mild winters when next March happens to be unusually Mild ??!!

 

In my opinion this is really bad scientific practice.  They have a theory, then they make predictions based on that theory.  In any science theories change as you get more results, you modify your predictions accordingly.  Once your theory and predictions come into line you publish.  They are doing this out of sequence.  They should keep their predictions to themselves.  They lose faith from the public because they drastically change their tune in a short time (and amongst scientists from other disciplines, your understanding of a situation is on a loose peg if your predictions swing 180degrees in just a few years.)  They should keep their predictions to themselves.

[barrel1234]

I'm not sure if I'm posting  in the right place but here is a youtube link of Bob Carter, I know that there are a few if you that don't like him much but if you have some time to kill its a good time filler.   It's from 2011 so a couple of years old

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

[knocker]

John Mason has written an excellent brief history of climate science

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/history-climate-science.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Texas Congressman Cites Noah's Ark As Evidence Against Climate Change

 

Texas Republican Joe Barton stands out even among his fellow conservative Republicans who have made it an article of faith to deny the existence of a human component to climate change.

 

On Wednesday, Barton cemented that reputation by citing the Old Testament to refute scientific evidence of man-made global warming, drawing on the story of Noah's ark.

 

"I would point out that if you are a believer in the Bible, one would have to say the great flood was an example of climate change," Barton told a congressional hearing on Wednesday in a video first shown on the BuzzFeed website. "That certainly wasn't because mankind had overdeveloped hydrocarbon energy."

 

Barton was speaking at a House subcommittee hearing called by the Republican leadership to promote a bill that would allow Congress to fast-track a controversial pipeline that would pump crude from the tar sands of Alberta to refineries on the Texas coast.

 

 

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/04/texas-congressman-cites-noahs-ark-evidence-against-climate-change

[Methuselah]

 

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/04/texas-congressman-cites-noahs-ark-evidence-against-climate-change

   

[UV-RAY]

John Mason has written an excellent brief history of climate science

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/history-climate-science.html

I've crossed swords many times with Mason so any links from the SS I'll ignore completely as I'm still awaiting a reply from errors in his previous works I've corrected for him.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I've crossed swords many times with Mason so any links from the SS I'll ignore completely as I'm still awaiting a reply from errors in his previous works I've corrected for him.

 

What errors are they SI?

Disregarding pieces from an entire website, while reading the biased nonsese on WUWT, seems a bit closed minded no?

[4wd]

Same here, the man has an unsavoury side which I won't go into here but I take everything he writes as mostly suspect.

[pottyprof]

 

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/04/texas-congressman-cites-noahs-ark-evidence-against-climate-change

Where do they get these people from? Too funny.

[Methuselah]

Where do they get these people from? 

Queens Park Rangers? 

[Gray-Wolf]

I have always found John M. approachable, caring and down to Earth in his dealings with me?

 

Has someone been spouting tosh toward him as I also know he does not suffer Fools willingly?

Edited April 14, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Will melting Arctic open up LNG shipping lanes?

As Alaska continues to struggle with jumpstarting construction on a massive natural gas pipeline project, Russia is marching ahead with plans to tap its own Arctic gas reserves.

 

But unlike Alaska, which is pinning its hopes on an 800-mile-long pipeline and terminal project that could cost more than $65 billion, Russia’s effort would involve icebreaker tankers transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Arctic’s ice-clogged waters.

 

In the Arctic, both Russia and Alaska hold trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. The theory has long been that pipelines would be needed to get the gas to markets. But with Arctic warming, shipping lanes are expected to open up, presenting a new approach to tapping natural gas reserves.

 

 

 

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130414/will-melting-arctic-open-lng-shipping-lanes

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it enevitable that the Arctic is to be used as a convenient route from Pacific to atlantic. with the issues in Panama (silting) and politcal issues around the Gulf Africa the 'safer' more cost effective route will be quickly exploited once 'normal' ships make the crossing?

[Polar Maritime]