South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Mapantz]

At least you have a soaking to look forward too.

lol yeah. I suppose in a way, i know exactly what i will be getting here. There could still be one or two surprises meaning you could get a bit of both.

[George]

Rain warning updated

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?map=Warnings&fcTime=1363910400

[Bumpkin]

Rain warning updated

http://www.metoffice...Time=1363910400

Excellent, i have so missed the persistent, endless, relentless rain and the associated flooding, fields of mud and mud covered soggy dogs.

Not sure how well sarcasm is picked up in the written word.

[Mapantz]

Not sure how well sarcasm is picked up in the written word.

Quite well from this end but i'm looking forward to it!

[Beast of Plympton]

Excellent, i have so missed the persistent, endless, relentless rain and the associated flooding, fields of mud and mud covered soggy dogs.

Not sure how well sarcasm is picked up in the written word.

Picked up very well. Hopefully this will be as well.

I am looking forward to the need for a rain coat everytime I step outside, the constant cold rain be blown into my face, the inevitable wet jeans, more than likely the fire shout we will get to go and pump water from some poor flooded soul and most of all, the complete dullness I will see when I look out of the window at miserable people just wishing the ice age would finally come so all this PPN can be snow and they can enjoy it rather the loathe it!!

Does that sarcasm translate??!!

[AWD]

Very unusual comment from Ian in the MOD thread;

"Latest from Exeter: concerns re potential for another "significant snow event.... with drifting and blizzards" most likely days 9-10. Potential further south, too."

Unusual in respect that the Met Office are already concerned about a possible event over a week away. There either must be universal model support already or reasonable hints of something very serious potentially to happen next week.

Don't think I can recall the Met Office being concerned about something so far out before.

[Bumpkin]

I just read that from Ian f in the mod thread (yes I ventured in there for the first time in ages, my hunt for warmth is getting desperate lol) and was quite surprised reading about concerns so far way in weather forecasting terms. The pessimist in me is expecting severe rain and floods.

[AWD]

I just read that from Ian f in the mod thread (yes I ventured in there for the first time in ages, my hunt for warmth is getting desperate lol) and was quite surprised reading about concerns so far way in weather forecasting terms. The pessimist in me is expecting severe rain and floods.

It's not like Ian to post something like that for so far away, that's all.

Must be something of concern being shown on the Met Office models for them to be concerned for something so far away.

Be interesting to see what the NWP show over the next few days. Can see the guys in the model thread examine the 240 hour charts in detail now. :p

[alijoe]

I love snow, but am quite happy now to see some lovely spring warmish weather, but what i hate with a passion is the blooming rain, cant believe alot of people must be so excited about snow and all we have to look forward to is cold rain :-(

[karlos1983]

Very unusual comment from Ian in the MOD thread;

"Latest from Exeter: concerns re potential for another "significant snow event.... with drifting and blizzards" most likely days 9-10. Potential further south, too."

Unusual in respect that the Met Office are already concerned about a possible event over a week away. There either must be universal model support already or reasonable hints of something very serious potentially to happen next week.

Don't think I can recall the Met Office being concerned about something so far out before.

That did grab my attention, as you say, it's not like Exeter to come out with thoughts like that, especially given A)the time frame and B ) the more imminent threat of snow for the coming few days.

Interesting stuff, will be viewing the output with interest over the coming runs!!

How epic this could have been if this was the setup in January!!

Edited March 20, 2013 by karlos1983

[Beast of Plympton]

It's not like Ian to post something like that for so far away, that's all.

Must be something of concern being shown on the Met Office models for them to be concerned for something so far away.

Be interesting to see what the NWP show over the next few days. Can see the guys in the model thread examine the 240 hour charts in detail now.

What are you seeing in the models at days 9-10 AWD?? Be interesting to here your thoughts.

[karlos1983]

Could this be the culprit, slide down toward the channel and France? to be continued......

come on 12z,roll out roll out

Edited March 20, 2013 by karlos1983

[AWD]

What are you seeing in the models at days 9-10 AWD?? Be interesting to here your thoughts.

I'm not seeing anything. Ian Fergusson and the Met Office are seeing the potential for snow and blizzards in 9-10 days time, even for the south.

See Ian's post in the MOD thread.

[Mapantz]

I'm not seeing anything. Ian Fergusson and the Met Office are seeing the potential for snow and blizzards in 9-10 days time, even for the south.

See Ian's post in the MOD thread.

It is hard to see exactly what the potential is but flicking through the ensembles does give a few hints.

No excitement from me until later down the line though ..

I will not be entering the model disc thread over the weekend! LOL

Edited March 20, 2013 by Mapantz

[Mapantz]

A shower has developed here with a little bit of hail mixed in! :o

[AWD]

It is hard to see exactly what the potential is but flicking through the ensembles does give a few hints.

No excitement from me until later down the line though ..

I will not be entering the model disc thread over the weekend! LOL

Indeed. You can kind of see some potential here;

But nothing worth getting excited about at this timescale IMO.

[Beast of Plympton]

I'm not seeing anything. Ian Fergusson and the Met Office are seeing the potential for snow and blizzards in 9-10 days time, even for the south.

See Ian's post in the MOD thread.

Ok, thanks buddy.

[AWD]

Anyway, the closer term also has some troublesome weather of the wet kind. Looking like a very wet afternoon and night tomorrow;

With Cornwall taking the brunt of the rainfall, with in excess of 70mm forecast to fall here and widely around the 30mm mark elsewhere;

So get that ark back out, we're going to need it again.

Edited March 20, 2013 by AWD

[noonoo418]

So a slight NE push on the snow line by the GFS. Anyone think it will come back south, judging by current output even a 100-150 mile shift south could make it interesting for some in our region.

[AWD]

So a slight NE push on the snow line by the GFS. Anyone think it will come back south, judging by current output even a 100-150 mile shift south could make it interesting for some in our region.

It's going to be rain for our region over the next 48 hours. Always was going to be rain realistically and that looks the case now. A lot of rain too as per my post above.

Cold air sinks south over the UK over the weekend is the potential for something more wintry for us at the end of the weekend and through next week especially, depending on any PPN of course.

[noonoo418]

It's going to be rain for our region over the next 48 hours. Always was going to be rain realistically and that looks the case now. A lot of rain too as per my post above.

Cold air sinks south over the UK over the weekend is the potential for something more wintry for us at the end of the weekend and through next week especially, depending on any PPN of course.

I have to admit judging by the very basic GFS precip charts for the end of the weekend, nothing of note really showing.

As for rain, more rain, things will get decidedly interesting if what is predicted materialises

[jethro]

Could this be the culprit, slide down toward the channel and France? to be continued......

come on 12z,roll out roll out

Here comes my white Easter.....

Seriously though, will this winter never end? Bored now.

[Mapantz]

Holy hailstones! What's happened to the new radar? There's a whole new look but no radar yet? It's looking interesting though ..

[Nights King]

I'm not seeing anything. Ian Fergusson and the Met Office are seeing the potential for snow and blizzards in 9-10 days time, even for the south.

See Ian's post in the MOD thread.

Sorry but 10 days away blizzards!? I'll put a tenner on it with you now that we won't see a significant blizzard or indeed proper deep snow in south west now

[AWD]

Sorry but 10 days away blizzards!? I'll put a tenner on it with you now that we won't see a significant blizzard or indeed proper deep snow in south west now

Put a tenner on it with Ian. I'm not seeing it, Ian put a post in the MOD thread mentioning it.

Met Office views, not mine.

Edited March 20, 2013 by AWD