South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[divadee]

Still blue skies here with some wispy white clouds. Feeling cold but lovely sun.

[galacticwarrior]

Very dark clouds coming towards us; Rain Today radar shows very heavy band of ppn moving towards us. I think it's the storm coming from Aldermaston

OK, it might not be Spanish but I hope it's like this:

Edited March 19, 2013 by galacticwarrior

[A.J]

potent little cell firing just to my east and on the western flank of the convective activity over east wilts/Hants/Berks

Edited March 19, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[rich1974]

Sounds like the same one, my little (big for a garden) lake has reformed in the garden again, stopped raining here now though.

[galacticwarrior]

Clouds turning medium grey with a slight tint of yellow

[offerman]

Are these rain,sleet,hail or snow showers that these folks are having today?

[Raidan]

Just went to my local Tesco which is up a bit of a hill and gives good views,could see blue sky and convection to the north and dark grey sky with rain curtain to the south,was hammering down when came out of Tesco but no T&L not going to be our day think

[A.J]

looking further afield, the 12z outputs (GFS, GEM & ukmo) are continuing with the southwards corrections for the end of week atlantic frontal systems.....it's getting close to the point of getting tantilizingly close to wintry ppn for us in the north and east of the region.....still unlikely to affect anyone apart from perhaps the Cotswolds but it is getting more interesting for some of us

[AWD]

Are these rain,sleet,hail or snow showers that these folks are having today?

All of those.

[AWD]

looking further afield, the 12z outputs (GFS, GEM & ukmo) are continuing with the southwards corrections for the end of week atlantic frontal systems.....it's getting close to the point of getting tantilizingly close to wintry ppn for us in the north and east of the region.....still unlikely to affect anyone apart from perhaps the Cotswolds but it is getting more interesting for some of us

Sceptical. It's what happens after Thursday/Friday's rain (likely to be rain still at this stage) that I think could be more interesting for our region as colder air pushes south again over the weekend.

[lightningsprite]

In Ashurst New Forest this afternoon at about 2.33 there were several rumbles of thunder and a couple of flashes of lightning...then a hailstorm and at about 3.15 another lightning strike and a loud rumble ot thunder...by the not very scientific method of counting seconds between flash and bang the lightning was between a mile and a mile and a half away...unexpected!

[AWD]

Can certainly see where AJ is coming from regarding the latest GFS though;

Something for our Cotswold members to keep an eye on. Be interesting to see the ECM take on it soon, along with the high res NAE model over the next 24 hours.

Nothing to much to get excited about yet, but equally an interesting trend to keep an eye on through tomorrow's output.

[Nights King]

Can certainly see where AJ is coming from regarding the latest GFS though;

Something for our Cotswold members to keep an eye on. Be interesting to see the ECM take on it soon, along with the high res NAE model over the next 24 hours.

Nothing to much to get excited about yet, but equally an interesting trend to keep an eye on through tomorrow's output.

If that came off it would leave only the west country with rain... Still even though we have seen no real snow here it is impressive how spring keeps being postponed! At this rate we shall be nearing summer before my daffs come into flower!

[Frosty_wsm]

Just to caution raw NAE frames for frontal advance Thursday AM have been slowed in modified version. Thus snow amounts showing on raw version e.g. Glos expected as transient and inconsequential, not least giving phasing with diurnal temperature. Sun-Mon of more interest for S areas if you are interested in a bit of snow there.

Copied from the mod thread, sounds interesting!

[AWD]

Latest NAE, which admittedly only goes out to midday Thursday, so further output is really needed, brings rain to all of the region, aside from the north Cotswolds maybe;

This in line with the Dewpoints, which are in positive territory for pretty much all;

Along with upper air temperatures a degree or two below freezing for most;

So whilst the model output so far today as taken a southward shift in general, it still isn't enough for the majority of the region and this trend needs to continue through tomorrow's output if we are to stand a chance of seeing some of the white stuff in our region.

As it stands, its still rain, just a little bit colder rainfall than yesterday.

EDIT; Just seen Ian's post, basically forget about the NAE and my post above then! lol.

As I thought though, rain for most but the weekend looking a little more interesting for snowfall as the colder air digs back south.

Edited March 19, 2013 by AWD

[Andy Bown]

Re Thursday, hasn't that first front been progged to arrive 24 hours earlier than forecast even yesterday evening? I guess that means the ridge building from the North which was due to make Thursday the best day of the week will not be as strong.

Are these rain,sleet,hail or snow showers that these folks are having today?

Rain near Salisbury as my wife phoned after leaving work although radar shows she was at the moderate precip rate so maybe hail in the

core which was S/SW of the city.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sunny 6.1ºC.Broken cloud.. With some blue patches.

[offerman]

Cheers AWD and Andy.

[cornish snow]

Main headline on spotlight was the 10 car pile up on the A30 near temple this afternoon. Big hail storm given as the reason for the crash.

I know we all love the weather extremes,and things dont get much better than a hailstorm,but today just shows how serious and potentially devastating the weather can be.

[Joe Levy]

This has just come from the ECM at 192hours. It would seem that snow is a possibility in the South-West next week!

Edited March 19, 2013 by Joe Levy

[AWD]

This has just come from the ECM at 192hours. It would seem that snow is a possibility in the South-West next week!

Take the ECM T144+ charts with a bucket load of salt. We have had a few of these FI charts by the ECM this season only for them to get watered down to something more realistic.

Good run though for those still wanting snow. Shows that there is still potential for us down here even after Thursday/Fridays increasingly likely heavy rain event.

Be interesting to view the Met Office updates for early next week over the coming few days.

Edited March 19, 2013 by AWD

[Joe Levy]

Take the ECM T144+ charts with a bucket load of salt. We have had a few of these FI charts by the ECM this season only for them to get watered down to something more realistic.

Good run though for those still wanting snow. Shows that there is still potential for us down here even after Thursday/Fridays increasingly likely heavy rain event.

Be interesting to view the Met Office updates for early next week over the coming few days.

Oh I completely agree with you, and personally I think it is unlikely to happen, but it is interesting to see how these extreme runs are still appearing so late in the season. Also, there still remains the possibility of more substantial snow on sunday into monday and, as you mentioned, the heavy rain, so there is plenty to keep us interested!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I have had heavy sleet for an hour , snow flakes in the mix along with thuds of wet slush !

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I had one distant rumble of Thunder earlier from the cell that passed over the West Berkshire area. That makes my total, two Thunder days for the year now with the other one, just a few days ago. During the heavier precipitation, the rain was showing signs of turning to sleet on occasion too.

Edited March 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

That storm mentioned in previous posts was amazing earlier, it didn't hit eastern parts of Wells but over towards Wedmore and Westbury sub Mendip, they got hail 3-4 inches deep - patients struggled through it to get to us, one didn't make it. Thunder was rattling all around us and a huge bolt of lightning hit just outside work, amazing, thunder instantaneous! I almost screamed... The dentist I work with jumped out his skin and the patient said "that wasn't thunder, it was a bomb!"

No rain hit from the storm over our part if town, so very localised with the hail to the west.