South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Costa Del Fal]

Monday: Sunshine and Scattered Showers: Traditional March Fare

Cornwall's Forecast:

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/cornwall/4573724902

Channel Islands Forecast:

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/channel-islands/4573977985

[katemart]

Rain, rain and more rain. 21mm today. Total rainfall so far this month: 58.6mm. Ave for March: 40.8mm (www.southamptonweather.co.uk). Had to jump across the flood outside the front door today and there are puddles of standing water all over the school playing fields and park. Just as things were starting to dry out

Re: snow in Oxon - seems the Council reckon they're not getting their money's worth from the Meto: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-21821820

[SunnySouthCoast]

Not a bad day here today only a couple of showers & some nice sunshine in between Todays Max 9C with 3mm of rain.

[TwisterGirl81]

We can hope for a blizzard Friday I won't get my hopes up though, it's been dashed more times than I care to remember this winter, weather wise, even the channel island got a blizzard lol

[AWD]

Just thought I would add this here from Ian in the MOD thread;

"Ok have now received modifications etc re UKMO-GM out into Thurs-Fri. Little to add really: same story as Ops Centre have run with over past 2 days; ie Fri seeing heavy, persistent rain in SW/S; threat of significant snow N Ireland, Wales, N England & Midlands. Rate of advance and northward extent of PPN key uncertainties; GM modified towards deterministic/ensemble middle-ground. No early alerts considered imminent given areal and timing disparities. That's it in a nutshell... so no change from yesterday's Exeter viewpoint."

"Sorry meant to add that EC EPS and extended UK4 both suggestive of v bothersome rainfall totals SW/S England Thurs-Fri; e.g. spot 60mm Dartmoor; 30-50mm more widely. Meanwhile snow signal for S in raw 12z GM considered too pessimistic based on comparable EPS output... so this has been greatly reduced in modified version (some transitory snow but primarily a wet gig), whereas threat of significant snow Midlands north (blizzards possible uplands) has better consensus, including from MOGREPS."

This is why we should be expecting rain, because currently this is the favoured outcome unfortunetly. It doesn't mean it won't change though, it can and might. Just as this stand at thus early timeframe, the odds are against the UKMO raw chart and against significant snow for our area.

Lets hope for a change however, early days yet.

Edited March 17, 2013 by AWD

[sherrie]

So met saying rain and some on here say snow, no offence but i think i know which to put my money on.

[Eskimo]

So met saying rain and some on here say snow, no offence but i think i know which to put my money on.

I voted for MetOffice's rain signal the night before it started snowing leading to 5cm of snow in early December

Edited March 18, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[sherrie]

So maybe by chooseing to 100% believing its going to rain it might actualy snow

[Coast]

Convective thoughts for today including a highlight for a rumble or two and maybe a spout over Hampshire from lunchtime onwards:

[Dorsetbred]

So met saying rain and some on here say snow, no offence but i think i know which to put my money on.

Yeah, the crystal clear stuff, and NOT the crystal stuff

[AWD]

Clear blue skies to start the day here. Patchy frost slowly melting away.

Some very potent returns from a cell over the Isle of Wight on the radar, any reports?

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I've kept hold of my snow cover from yesterday here in Newbury. I cannot remember many days in mid-March where the snow didn't melt away sufficiently enough to lose the general coverage. Whether I've got the 50% or more required for an official day of lying is debatable but the patchy snow cover remains on roofs and grass surfaces. From a low of -2.4c, we are sitting at 0.1c so can expect nearly all of the lying snow to be gone within a few hours. All in all, I've been amazed at what March has proved it can produce and for any warmth lovers, we are far from out of the woods yet.

[Polar Bear]

Rain, rain and more rain. 21mm today. Total rainfall so far this month: 58.6mm. Ave for March: 40.8mm (www.southamptonweather.co.uk). Had to jump across the flood outside the front door today and there are puddles of standing water all over the school playing fields and park. Just as things were starting to dry out

Re: snow in Oxon - seems the Council reckon they're not getting their money's worth from the Meto: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-21821820

Re OCC don't blame the council really. Must admit when it was still snowing at midday I saw a fair few gritters in small rural roads still doing their job... Good peeps.

[Man With Beard]

Clear blue skies to start the day here. Patchy frost slowly melting away.

Some very potent returns from a cell over the Isle of Wight on the radar, any reports?

Pretty heavy rain just now in Portsmouth. No sign of any wintriness atm - maybe the tops of the Downs could see some?

[gottolovethisweather]

Ok, its only the very first signs of a possible change in the modelling but after the "will it snow, will it rain?" scenario at the weekend, it could be getting warmer with Temperatures at least up to average, if not above on occasion.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2645290

My gut feeling should be pleased as I had this to say, a few days ago. My comment coming on the back of another wonderful analysis from Gibby.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2639358

So, come the final week of March, I believe we will start to see a general warming trend with the snow risk pushing further North.

Or will we?

A final comment though, it is however looking desperately wet too, longer-term as well.

Edited March 18, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

I have to sun it is a stunning day here. Clear blue skies!! So, I haven't had chance to catch up. I notice rain all day on firday but some are talking of snow?? Can anyone enlighten me??

[jessandjon]

The sun has got his hat on........ ......

[Costa Del Fal]

Its sunny, its warm in the sun. Light wind. Shorts are out and it really feels nice!

Before anyone thinks im crazy with the shorts a reminder im in Cornwall where its always spring. :lol: Its 8-9c now.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Blizzards

[Man With Beard]

Still chucking it down here in Pompey. I don't think this much rain had been forecast?

[Bumpkin]

So, come the final week of March, I believe we will start to see a general warming trend with the snow risk pushing further North.

Or will we?

A final comment though, it is however looking desperately wet too, longer-term as well.

That is what I am finding so frustrating with the weather, its either cold or when it does warm up it bloody rains! My hobbies are outdoors in the spring and summer months and need it dry and warm. I don't want another year like last year, I think I'd go insane. Its not just the farm that suffered but also the wildlife especially the insects. They need a good year to recover numbers.

Anyway it is mainly cloudy here but with sunny spells and it is pleasantly warm when the sun does shine.

[AWD]

I have to sun it is a stunning day here. Clear blue skies!! So, I haven't had chance to catch up. I notice rain all day on firday but some are talking of snow?? Can anyone enlighten me??

10% chance of snow, 90% chance of rain basically.

[Bumpkin]

Still chucking it down here in Pompey. I don't think this much rain had been forecast?

Certainly some bright echoes showing on the radar over Portsmouth.

[Catacol]

We can hope for a blizzard Friday I won't get my hopes up though, it's been dashed more times than I care to remember this winter, weather wise, even the channel island got a blizzard lol

That's for sure. While parts of the north are digging themselves out 1 snowfall where the snow stuck is the season's total here. It has been about the most frustrating winter of snow hoping I can remember, not because the chances have been low (some winters in the early 00s were so bad that at least frustration was impossible given the constantly mild conditions) but because the carrot has been dangled so often this season and then taken away that I am sick to death of this winter now.

Bring on Spring. I want to forget all about snow chances now until October.

[Mapantz]

Still chucking it down here in Pompey. I don't think this much rain had been forecast?

Convective weather was, the trouble is, under slack wind flow, it can cause flash flooding. They'll be more kicking off through this afternoon i expect.

[gottolovethisweather]

That is what I am finding so frustrating with the weather, its either cold or when it does warm up it bloody rains! My hobbies are outdoors in the spring and summer months and need it dry and warm. I don't want another year like last year, I think I'd go insane. Its not just the farm that suffered but also the wildlife especially the insects. They need a good year to recover numbers.

Anyway it is mainly cloudy here but with sunny spells and it is pleasantly warm when the sun does shine.

You're absolutely spot on Bumpkin. Agriculture has enough issues right now but you know what, the current ones are largely brought about the changing climate. Sadly, there is not a lot us humans can do, other than pray for something sunnier and drier around the corner. Of course, our climate is ever-changing, simply due to the fact we are an island surrounded by sea on all sides and a spell of HP dominated will arrive eventually. One question bugs me though, just how much damage has mankind already inflicted on the world, by abusing the natural ecosystem and thereby stripping it of all its resources. We can't expect the climate to remain unaltered, by not accepting we are part of the problem. You and I will do our bit because we both work close to the land and we understand that we should not abuse it, both short-term and longer-term.

Best stop now as I'm ranting and some of the above perhaps belongs in another thread, but at least I've got it off my chest.

One or two days are looking warmer in the outlook, so that can only be good. Also, I don't believe it’s over wet until the end of the week, so good news there. 0.8mm so far today in Newbury, 81.8mm in total, so I reckon I can expect yet another triple-digit monthly rainfall figure and I'm in one of the drier regions too.