South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[AWD]

I'm not a trumpet blower but there's been quite a change on the UKMO model, it's following the GFS quite well.

The signs are pointing towards a wet one for the south & south west.

It was always likely to be a wet one for the SW. There was never enough support for another outcome to seriously consider, just some eye candy charts from a certain model.

Anyway, hopeful that tomorrow can provide a little more convective activity compared to today IMBY.

[gottolovethisweather]

It was always likely to be a wet one for the SW. There was never enough support for another outcome to seriously consider, just some eye candy charts from a certain model.

Not much chance of this particular eyecatching model output either, for a while at least.

Err sorry, wrong country.

Edited March 18, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Not much chance of this particular eyecatching model output either, for a while at least.

Err sorry, wrong country.

Now that's a "warm front"!

[gottolovethisweather]

Now that's a "warm front"!

Those studios must get very humid feeling.

[gottolovethisweather]

Signs of something warmer in the latest netweather forecast. Bear in mind, I believe this is based on the latest GFS output only though.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Nevertheless, several double-digit day Maximums in the offing from Saturday onwards. Could it be that the Spring Equinox has finally removed all chances of something wintry? Yes, quite possible that will change and beefy showers will often bring something briefly resembling winter, but I do find the Spring Equinox connection (starts on 20th March, so a day or two earlier than I suggest above) a touch uncanny. What we can't get away from it seems, are the lashings of frontal rain from time to time. If things work out strictly according to their seasons though, then I and the unheard voices coming from the natural world will be very happy indeed. Each to their own of course, now let's have some convective Thunderstorms interspersed with much needed drier interludes.

Edited March 18, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Well, something of a little more interest for us convective fans I think tomorrow. Latest NAE;

and GFS;

show developing shower activity throughout late morning and the afternoon across the SW. With a saturated vertical humidity profile aloft;

and cooler air trapped over mid levels, these showers could again fall as sleet and snow;

Cloud tops rising into weak Cb structures, along with a few hundred joules of CAPE across the region, I think electrical activity will be sparse, but I said that last time so I won't commit to that too much this time. ELT values look prime for hail to fall in the showers, perhaps large hail in the stronger cells too;

With more elevated cloud tops and stronger PVA forecasts, thunder could well be a feature tomorrow afternoon.

Something similiar to Saturday me thinks?

[Mark Neal.]

Heavy showers here for last 2hrs now, thundery too earlier. Heavy Rain winds so light its like they are just circling around us..

[Nights King]

I think tuesday could be my final day of snow falling looking at models...

Shame it looks like nothing warm with just rubbish wet cool weather on offer after.

[Mapantz]

I wait all day for a shower .. what are the chances?

And it's got hail in it.

[AWD]

Knock knock?

Hello?

Anyone there?

[otleygas]

Knock knock?

Hello?

Anyone there?

...opens door...nothing to see here sir....move along now

[Bill davis]

Not much chance of this particular eyecatching model output either, for a while at least.

Err sorry, wrong country.

thats what I call F.I. !!!

[alijoe]

someone keeps knocking the door and then running away ......

[Costa Del Fal]

Tuesday: Traditional March Fare yet again; Just Like Monday!

Cornwall's Forecast:

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/cornwall/4573724902

Channel Islands Forecast:

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/channel-islands/4573977985

[George]

someone keeps knocking the door and then running away ......

Noo, its your caring neighbour preparing for Friday!

[Mapantz]

A touch frosty here, a ight rain/hail shower made things a bit icey in places.

[Dorsetbred]

Tad misty here this morning, currently:

Temp -0.9°C

DP -3.9°C

[divadee]

Good morning all.

Very foggy here in christchurch and noticeably cooler than the past couple of days.

[robnor1]

Found an easterly gale with snow this morning in Copenhagen glad I am now travelling west on the train.

Edited March 19, 2013 by robnor1

[Beast of Plympton]

We have a nice dusting of snow here this morning.... Guess this is going to be the last before the weekend!!

[gottolovethisweather]

thats what I call F.I. !!!

I often like to live in FI but it rarely ends up looking like that.

Welcome aboard Bill, if you are still around, can you please update your profile to show your location.

[AWD]

If any convection is going to kick off today then this cloudcover needs to do one IMO.

[Nights King]

If any convection is going to kick off today then this cloudcover needs to do one IMO.

its sunny on mendip

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY It'll only take 8-9C today to fire-up heavy showers & thunderstorms, some of which could give local hail covering: tricky on roads"

:)

its sunny on mendip

As dull as a Bristol Rovers match here.

[Coast]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY It'll only take 8-9C today to fire-up heavy showers & thunderstorms, some of which could give local hail covering: tricky on roads"