South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Nights King]

It's not about certaintly, i'm saying that you may as well chase dragons rather than that chart.

All i can say is, expect rain.

yes I've been waiting 30 years for one of these so I doubt it will happen. Chances are that it would end up midlands northwards...

[Mapantz]

Steve M says that the GFS has been poor this winter, funny that the ECM doesn't get mentioned .. that has beent he bain of most coldies since December, so many short memories ..

[-uksnow-]

It's not about certaintly, i'm saying that you may as well chase dragons rather than that chart.

All i can say is, expect rain.

Sorry but that is an extremely silly thing to say imo, you only have to look at the recurring theme of this winter of weak heights to the NE crushing Lp's advancing from the west, causing them to slide under - and every time the GFS has had this wrong, being dragged kicking and screaming into line by the Euro's, you wait and watch, this coming week (it may take until a mere 72 hrs away from the low sliding) the GFS will come round to the Euro's train of thoughts, im not saying it will pan out exactly like the UKMO 120 + 144 charts show (which by the way, would give an all snow event away from the very southwestern tip of the UK) but certainly it will look alot different to how the GFS is portraying it now!

[Hurricane Buckley]

Im sticking with the colder theme of weather, however the UKMO blizzard chart is unlikely to come off.

[AWD]

Sorry but that is an extremely silly thing to say imo.

It's definetly not a silly thing to say, it's a very plausible. Until such output gets within 48 hours, then unfortunetly for this part of the world, you always do have to expect rain rather than snow.

Not saying we will get either, to far out to worry and forecast about currently. Just saying that at this stage, rain is just as likely as any snowfall for areas south of the M4. One to watch for sure, but that's all it is for now.

Edited March 17, 2013 by AWD

[Mapantz]

Sorry but that is an extremely silly thing to say imo, you only have to look at the recurring theme of this winter of weak heights to the NE crushing Lp's advancing from the west, causing them to slide under - and every time the GFS has had this wrong, being dragged kicking and screaming into line by the Euro's, you wait and watch, this coming week (it may take until a mere 72 hrs away from the low sliding) the GFS will come round to the Euro's train of thoughts, im not saying it will pan out exactly like the UKMO 120 + 144 charts show (which by the way, would give an all snow event away from the very southwestern tip of the UK) but certainly it will look alot different to how the GFS is portraying it now!

Contradiction alert!

The blocking seems too far north this time around.

The north-south split seems the logical solution.

[Frosty_wsm]

yes I've been waiting 30 years for one of these so I doubt it will happen. Chances are that it would end up midlands northwards...

Remember what I said about these low pressure systems trending south ;-) Another event for the channel Islands :-P lol, now that would take the mickey wouldn't it if come the day that lp is pushed so far south that any snow, if any does fall, missed the uk entirely!

Edited March 17, 2013 by Smartie

[Mapantz]

Remember what I said about these low pressure systems trending south ;-) Another event for the channel Islands :-P lol, now that would take the mickey wouldn't it if come the day that lp is pushed so far south that any snow, if any does fall, missed the uk entirely!

haha - yeah! The channel islands get buried pt 2.

[offerman]

Whats going on, what are people expecting, 30 year event etc. havent checked latest runs yet but will now do, you lot got me buzzing with massive event.

[Hurricane Buckley]

Im not expecting a massive event for sure, just the risk of snow in the South.

[offerman]

Ok, just checked latest gfs runs, not sure what all the excitment is about? Sorry, just me being bit thick, can someone elaborate.

[AWD]

Ok, just checked latest gfs runs, not sure what all the excitment is about? Sorry, just me being bit thick, can someone elaborate.

Look at the UKMO run mate.

[Mapantz]

The BBC week ahead forecast showed a sprinkling of snow over Dorset for Friday but with temperature symbols showing 8C. LOL

Obviously there's uncertainty .. :lol:

[AWD]

The BBC week ahead forecast showed a sprinkling of snow over Dorset for Friday but with temperature symbols showing 8C. LOL

Obviously there's uncertainty .. :lol:

Yeah, I saw that and left scratching my head. I'm not sure that temperatures will be that high cone Friday, but hey ho, everything will change by then.

[-uksnow-]

Contradiction alert!

The blocking seems too far north this time around.

The north-south split seems the logical solution.

AWD - we can expect anything at this range, why we should expect an all rain event is beyond me, but as rightly said we obviously need to wait to the nearer time frame

Mapantz - Thats the whole point! the block always is underestimated so we are likely to see small shifts south towards the time?!

[AWD]

AWD - we can expect anything at this range, why we should expect an all rain event is beyond me, but as rightly said we obviously need to wait to the nearer time.

With past experience, the ECM and the GFS all showing rain or a brief snow - rain event for the region, and the UKMO showing something different and extreme, at this timeframe you have to favour the more realistic and normal outcome which is rain for these parts.

Not dismissing the UKMO of course, but until there is much more support for such a scenario, and it is at a much more reliable timeframe, then the more "normal" outcome and using all data available, wet rather than white has to be favoured.

Best thing to do for now is not expect anything and await further developments over the coming days.

[Polar Bear]

Well what a surprise I had today with the snow. Left the coast at 11am in torrential rain heading for south oxon .. Phoned my friend to tell her that the vms signs on m27 were talking about an accident and so she may want to take a different route then she told me that they had a couple of cm of snow... And didn't I have any.. Sure enough got to south oxon and there was a decent layer of snow. From about 5miles out of Newbury south there was no snow just heavy rain...

Most most surprised. Nice surprise even though wet snow the fields with the sun later this eve looked gorgeous... Very very wet and flooded roads as it melted but I suspect treacherous tomorrow.. BBC weather now indicating some further snow potential midlands at higher level and maybe some lower levels tonight

Spoke to my dad about the snow and he said I keep telling people snow isnt unusual in march and it has happened many times before.. Bless him..

When we think last year we had so much dry weather and it really affect the growing of various crops later. This weather for some now is apparently good and gets goodness into the ground ready for spring... Apparently .

[MP-R]

When we think last year we had so much dry weather and it really affect the growing of various crops later. This weather for some now is apparently good and gets goodness into the ground ready for spring... Apparently .

This March is proving to be a lot more interesting than last year. Yes, the weather last March was glorious but also rather monotonous and half-hearted compared to what it could bring in the summer.

At least if we get a more anticyclonic summer this year, a wet spring will have done wonders and reservoir levels won't be a problem, even more so after a very wet autumn and standard rainfall during the winter.

[Argyle1980]

Can't be doing with all this cold rain, will be nice when we see some new colours on the charts me thinks !

[Mark Neal.]

4cm of snow this morning in Oxford. A40 was very bad heading into work: big massive flakes some of the biggest I have seen in my lifetime, extraordinary!

Edited March 17, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Andy Bown]

Surely the most important point is that the snow chance is Friday into Saturday, so far away it's hardly worth getting excited about

when you consider what happened a week ago.

And then we get events like this morning which popped up in the models only 12 or so hours in advance!

The most important factor this week is that places get a chance to dry out again after a very wet 48 to 60 hours in this region with only

scattered showers of whatever precip type expected for the next 4 days.

[Wynn D Woo]

All the snow talk seems rather strange as over here in Gloucester we have had a pleasantly mild and often sunny afternoon which gave me a good opportunity to get out in the garden.

Tbh snow at this time of year is just nuisance value and I would rather it warmed up and dried up a bit more.

[Winter2009]

I thought the snow potential was for the South and West, not the South West ?

[SNOWYLAD]

Yes what a lovely afternoon following this mornings snow, which followed yesterdays rain, hail & thunder! If you want variety in your weather, the UK is the place to be. 4 seasons in one weekend!

[George]

Unfortunately there was no snow for me this morning IMBY, but just a couple of miles down the road seen a good covering overnight, unbelievable!

Edited March 17, 2013 by George