South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:00>

[Eskimo]

Here is a basic map collating all the results from the 3 main models to make it easier for people who don't actually look into the models to see where the snow will fall. The snowline seems to be focused along the M4 or just North of it as it always is in these set ups for some strange reason. This is a basic idea of what to expect, but I suspect things will change over the next few days, either a shift North or South!

[Pixel]

Blue skies now ... surely I must be hallucinating?

Snow very close Saturday morning on the 12z GFS. T850s not very impressive, only just below 0C, but dew points 0C just north of London and partial thicknesses just about low enough for snow in the northern Home Counties and E Anglia:

Long way off and suitable parameters for snow could move north again (or south) and indeed location of precip could change before then too.

could be our last chance saloon for snow this week/end then? - those parameters are keeping me awake as winter eyelids are starting to close - an adjustment further south would keep me up (-:

a snippet of hope yet:

yes I know it's a gfs precip chart and they're cxxp (allegedly) but hey it's spring and we can hope can't we?

P

[john pike]

also

posted these to show why the met office have called for snow potential around anglia area

the potential is there

not calling huge amounts but the risk is there

[Pixel]

Here is a basic map collating all the results from the 3 main models to make it easier for people who don't actually look into the models to see where the snow will fall. The snowline seems to be focused along the M4 or just North of it as it always is in these set ups for some strange reason. This is a basic idea of what to expect, but I suspect things will change over the next few days, either a shift North or South!

ahh wouldn't it be funny if everywhere north of the M4 got it this time

but then again that wouldn't be fair would it?

Feel sorry for the midlanders as most of the weather predictions seem to be north or south of it going by certain comments on this site... no weather in the midlands what ever next!

Surprises to be had - maybe of a snowy kind for some - north or south of the midlands and maybe in the middle too

[Bluebreezer54]

Well since you good folk on the South Coast fared well last week, I think its only fair us folk a bit further north had a final bite of the winter cherry this weekend

[john pike]

ahh wouldn't it be funny if everywhere north of the M4 got it this time

but then again that wouldn't be fair would it?

Feel sorry for the midlanders as most of the weather predictions seem to be north or south of it going by certain comments on this site... no weather in the midlands what ever next!

Surprises to be had - maybe of a snowy kind for some - north or south of the midlands and maybe in the middle too

probably end up in france again

[Tim Bland]

Here is a basic map collating all the results from the 3 main models to make it easier for people who don't actually look into the models to see where the snow will fall. The snowline seems to be focused along the M4 or just North of it as it always is in these set ups for some strange reason. This is a basic idea of what to expect, but I suspect things will change over the next few days, either a shift North or South!

Good map re " will it be cold enough to snow" but looking at the 12z NWP so far, I'd be surprised if any frontal precip made it north and east of Manchester area? As for our region then north of London looks good. Northants, bucks should do ok.

[Pixel]

Well since you good folk on the South Coast fared well last week, I think its only fair us folk a bit further north had a final bite of the winter cherry this weekend

yeh and we can get struck by lightning, have a tornado and an earthquake all in one day up here.. plus snow ! Happens a lot

[Coast]

Just wondering how much further south this weekends low would need to track in order to bring us in the SE into play.

Over Hellingly would be nice.....

[john pike]

surprised this has not been spotted

[Snowman.]

surprised this has not been spotted

Fairly dry but what interests me is what lies NE.

[Snowangel-MK]

I just saw a very good snow map on Facebook showing the snow further south than I expected....I wondered if it might be posted on here !

Yep....this is the one I was talking about

Here is a basic map collating all the results from the 3 main models to make it easier for people who don't actually look into the models to see where the snow will fall. The snowline seems to be focused along the M4 or just North of it as it always is in these set ups for some strange reason. This is a basic idea of what to expect, but I suspect things will change over the next few days, either a shift North or South!

[john pike]

Fairly dry but what interests me is what lies NE.

hi snowman

that would not be dry as loads on inastabilty there

long way out but the north east bit is very interesting

as the low to our south east could pull that lot towards us

would be cold as well

winter continues still

[Snowangel-MK]

yeh and we can get struck by lightning, have a tornado and an earthquake all in one day up here.. plus snow ! Happens a lot

Surely not..... things like that only happen within about a mile of Thorpe Park

[fluid dynamic]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

Well the lads at the met office have had their crayons out today, warnings everywhere (except here) for the next 5 days....

[Pixel]

Surely not..... things like that only happen within about a mile of Thorpe Park

(-:

wouldn't it be great if the met forecast rain.. and then it turned to snow in the evening, falling all night to wake up to the results of our last winter blast of this season, make a snowman etc - followed the next day by a very quick thaw to let spring back with a vengeance?

but of a dreamer me..

http://www.metoffice...nings/#?tab=map

Well the lads at the met office have had their crayons out today, warnings everywhere (except here) for the next 5 days....

might need more crayons with fine tips this week

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

quite a lot of precipitation about to hit the channel heading north

could be a wet evening

thats assuming this

does not kill them

[john pike]

just posted by ian f on mod thread

Just to caution raw NAE frames for frontal advance Thursday AM have been slowed in modified version. Thus snow amounts showing on raw version e.g. Glos expected as transient and inconsequential, not least giving phasing with diurnal temperature. Sun-Mon of more interest for S areas if you are interested in a bit of snow there.

the sun-mon remark would be this

still expect changes up to thursday at least with this

[john pike]

updated fax has a trough slap bang over anglia

all under an east north east flow

possible slightly heavier snow anglia way showing here

but would not rule out wintry showers anywhere tomorrow in the south east (more chance of wintry bits later pm in the south)

cold again 5 -6 degree max but dropping when showers arrive

[Coast]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

quite a lot of precipitation about to hit the channel heading north could be a wet evening

It might just swing past us:

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

hi coast run this again

think they are going north east then will tilt north west

see what it does soon enough though

[Coast]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

hi coast run this again

think they are going north east then will tilt north west

see what it does soon enough though

Well I'm off home now and I might put the roof down to scare it!!! :lol:

[username home]

flying to glasgow (from gatwick) early on saturday am - will i make it??

[Tamara]

just posted by ian f on mod thread

Just to caution raw NAE frames for frontal advance Thursday AM have been slowed in modified version. Thus snow amounts showing on raw version e.g. Glos expected as transient and inconsequential, not least giving phasing with diurnal temperature. Sun-Mon of more interest for S areas if you are interested in a bit of snow there.

the sun-mon remark would be this

still expect changes up to thursday at least with this

Yes I was wondering about that this morning, interesting to see how this pans out with the modelling over the next few days

Edited March 19, 2013 by Tamara Road

[john pike]

Well I'm off home now and I might put the roof down to scare it!!!

nooooo it will rain then