South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:00>

[Steve C]

Hello Steve The convective chances look to be heading westwards to that side of our region and more especially into the neighbouring SW/S region.

I think as long as that remarkably intense cold pool stays to our north east then the continent will stay with low dewpoints and surface cold instead of the usual rapid upticks we can see at this time of year when surface conditions can change dramatically in a short period of time over a large landmass such as Europe. With the continuing pattern of blocking to our north and low pressure disrupting south eastwards then taking all these ingredients mentioned together, then it makes it a lot easier than usual for properly cold conditions to be achieved despite the ever lengthening days.

Usually by this time any late wintry spell is dependant on incursions directly from the arctic north of here rather than NE Europe and Russia Whatever ones wishes as Spring progresses, this is quite a remarkable month for sure!

Totally agree it's been remarkable. Obviously I was out of the country last week, so don't know how cold (maximum temperature) last Monday was, but I suspect it was a very rare event, for so long into the year.

I also agree that the snow prospects are still there and could give significant, albeit very temporary accumulations, but my point is that the really cold prospects rather than snowy one become very limited.

I've just looked at the Central England Temperature record since 1772 and we have only had 5 days in April with a CET of zero or less (bearing in mind these are average, rather than maximum temperatures) Apart from one remarkable reading from 19th April 1772, which showed -0.2C, the other readings were all in the first three days and none was lower than -0.5C.

[alexisj9]

Frosty start on Thursday with light winds. Wet and windy conditions will spread slowly east Thursday, then last through much of Friday and Saturday, with a risk of inland snow.

From the met office for friday and the weekend se.

Does that basically mean snow on hills, or snow anywhere away from the coast?

Sounds like they mostly expect rain.

[GoonerGregg77]

Frosty start on Thursday with light winds. Wet and windy conditions will spread slowly east Thursday, then last through much of Friday and Saturday, with a risk of inland snow.

From the met office for friday and the weekend se.

Does that basically mean snow on hills, or snow anywhere away from the coast?

Sounds like they mostly expect rain.

I think it's in line with the unexpected Snow that fell in Oxfordshire a few days ago, and there council complaining about there forecast, maybe there covering themselves with it now. I can't see snow other than the hills as you say.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Norfolk & Cambridgeshire

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

Issued at:

1132 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from:

2100 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid to:

1000 on Wed 20 Mar 2013

A frontal system which has brought rain to eastern Norfolk during Tuesday is expected to pivot westwards across northern England overnight. As colder air feeds in from the east, the rain is likely to turn increasingly to sleet and snow, especially on high ground. However, temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels so there is some uncertainty over snow amounts here. The public are advised to keep in touch with the forecasts through today.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1363651200

Edited March 19, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Southampton, Oxfordshire, Isle of Wight & Portsmouth

Persistent rain is expected to set in during Thursday, lasting until well into Friday in many areas, and particularly heavy over hills exposed to the south and southeast. Some improvement seems likely later on Friday, but still with localised heavy showers.

The public should be aware that this may cause some localised issues with flooding.

Issued at:

1128 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from:

1200 on Thu 21 Mar 2013

Valid to:

1700 on Fri 22 Mar 2013

An active frontal system, struggling to bring milder air into the south of the country, is expected to bring 20-30 mm of rainfall quite widely and possibly in excess of 50 mm to some hilly districts. Given that recent rain and showers have made things quite wet again, this seems likely to lead to some impacts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=9B344D02-EAD8-076E-E38E-824F3F386648_1_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1363824000

[Keraunic]

Oh goody gum drops......we have sleet. Aaaaaaggggghhhhh!!!! :o

[Sprites]

radio suffolk with theyre hail and thunder forecast today

[Coast]

Amazing sunshine and a circle of blue sky over Benny Hill this lunchtime, perhaps it might promote a bit of convection this afternoon

[fatyido]

Latest BBC lunchtime forecast is predicting that the frontal system moving in from the SW during Thurs night / Friday will just be of rain for this forum anyway.

Their computer graphics showed snow from the Wash, northwards, and in situations like these, they are very rarely that far out. Maybe parts of Northamptonshire could well see alittle snow, but in general I think it will be a cold rain event for all of us.

[Jan_Bromley]

Oh dear, at the risk of being repetitive................

Grey, overcast, no wind

[fatyido]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Norfolk & Cambridgeshire

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

Issued at:

1132 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from:

2100 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid to:

1000 on Wed 20 Mar 2013

A frontal system which has brought rain to eastern Norfolk during Tuesday is expected to pivot westwards across northern England overnight. As colder air feeds in from the east, the rain is likely to turn increasingly to sleet and snow, especially on high ground. However, temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels so there is some uncertainty over snow amounts here. The public are advised to keep in touch with the forecasts through today.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1363651200

If this does come off, and I have my doubts, I certainly dont see it affecting Cambridgeshire.

[abruzzi spur]

I think it's in line with the unexpected Snow that fell in Oxfordshire a few days ago, and there council complaining about there forecast, maybe there covering themselves with it now. I can't see snow other than the hills as you say.

I'd be surprised if there was any left, Gregg, but it sounds like fun!

[Coast]

Looks like it's kicking off 'round at the neighbours

[Kent Snow]

A bright but generally cloudy day so far. Temperature 5C.

[abruzzi spur]

Afternoon all, not much to report from the office location in Harefield, mostly cloudy though occasionally a feeble imitation of the sun tries to break through.

I am flying to Edinburgh tomorrow and then travelling on to St Andrews for a conference, due to fly back on Friday. It looks like I may be arriving to the aftermath of some interesting weather, but given the potential for Friday up in that neck of the woods I am wondering if I will get back on time. If I get the chance and conditions are enough to make it worth it I will send some reports from the snow zone, Kate Aide style. (There's another comment that shows my age.....)

AS

[Reefseeker]

Afternoon all, not much to report from the office location in Harefield, mostly cloudy though occasionally a feeble imitation of the sun tries to break through.

I am flying to Edinburgh tomorrow and then travelling on to St Andrews for a conference, due to fly back on Friday. It looks like I may be arriving to the aftermath of some interesting weather, but given the potential for Friday up in that neck of the woods I am wondering if I will get back on time. If I get the chance and conditions are enough to make it worth it I will send some reports from the snow zone, Kate Aide style. (There's another comment that shows my age.....)

AS

I am slightly concerned about my addiction to Netweather. Yesterday morning when watching the snow forecasts for Scotland this week, I found myself thinking, while eating my porridge, how inconvenient that would be for Mr Spur... that can't be right??!!

Yes, Uxbridge similarly has some blue sky bits but mostly cloud with a very anaemic attempt at sunlight.

[john pike]

still a little different there

back for the 12z runs later

[john pike]

i got this big bright thing in the sky at present

any ideas??????

[Average Joe]

i got this big bright thing in the sky at present

any ideas??????

No idea........is it worth ramping?

[Coast]

No idea........is it worth ramping?

Always!

[Eskimo]

The GFS which for days was more bullish with bringing in more in the way of mild and wet, has upgraded the snow potential further South, was not expecting that!! The longest winter in 50 years continues!

Edited March 19, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Coast]

The GFS which for days was more bullish with bringing in more in the way of mild and wet, has upgraded the snow potential further South

Not far enough for some(including me).....

But good luck for those in the North and North East of our region if it pans out like this!

[lawrenk]

Just wondering how much further south this weekends low would need to track in order to bring us in the SE into play. It seems to have been a recurring theme this winter that lows end up being a lot further south than first progged and wonder whether a similar thing could happen this time. Would be great to see some more snow and equally good to wind some up on the main thread who don't seem to like us down here!

[Snowangel-MK]

The GFS which for days was more bullish with bringing in more in the way of mild and wet, has upgraded the snow potential further South, was not expecting that!! The longest winter in 50 years continues!

I just saw a very good snow map on Facebook showing the snow further south than I expected....I wondered if it might be posted on here !

[Nick F]

Blue skies now ... surely I must be hallucinating?

Snow very close Saturday morning on the 12z GFS. T850s not very impressive, only just below 0C, but dew points 0C just north of London and partial thicknesses just about low enough for snow in the northern Home Counties and E Anglia:

Long way off and suitable parameters for snow could move north again (or south) and indeed location of precip could change before then too.