South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:00>

[Guest bjaykent]

22nd is fi

big scatter there

at least the precipitation spikes have dropped a tad to the 21st

ecm ensembles

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

now ecm from the 23rd goes to the warmer end of the ensembles

so the prediction after saturday is

no eye deer

Ha Ha, Hi John, Wednesday chart looks a bit of a bonus, wish we could see upper air temps for the 144 UKMO chart, normally you could look at the ECM but they don't even compare at 144, Countryfile forecast did appear to follow UKMO 144 chart earlier in showing potential snow right across the south and into the west. Can't wait to see if they are right. Certainly looks like another very cold week. Edited March 18, 2013 by bjaykent

[john pike]

http://aolbroadband.welcomescreen.aol.co.uk/video/puddle-jumping-teen-gets-big-surprise/517705656/

watch out for them puddles

[Guest bjaykent]

http://aolbroadband....rise/517705656/

watch out for them puddles

Might happen if we get on the wrong side of that low pressure, reminded me of Dawn French in Vicar of Dibley, I listened to her on Desert Island Discs at Xmas when she admitted she did a little wee when she disappeared in that puddle!

[blackprince]

http://aolbroadband....rise/517705656/

watch out for them puddles

Good one John...Reminds me of when I was an electrician at Sheerness Steel,it was a nightmare of a site...so dangerous..we got to tea time one day and the mess room was only tiny,so there was a mad rush to get there,we were running across site when my mate thought he would take a short cut through a gap between some big transformers,he jumped across a big puddle and landed on a wooden board,alas this was only floating on the water /oil etc ....he ended up over his head in the filthiest liquid you can imagine After we had our tea we took him to first aid to get some jabs lol

[john pike]

ecm for 6am on wednesdy

wednesday 12

shows a rain to snow event

lets see what tomorrow shows to try and fathom this out

will not look at the earlier runs

will stick with the 12z only

time for an early night

goodnight all

plus tomorrow afternoon

tomorrow afternoon may see some wintry showers as the lows crossed and spin the flow to a colder direction

most places will see rain but late afternoon if you get heavier bursts and the right wind flow you may get lucky

would not rule out the odd rumble or 2 as well tomorrow

[Bluebreezer54]

Very foggy here in Nw London

[ZONE 51]

shows a rain to snow event

Yeah! Really been an interesting month so far, last Sunday/Monday i experienced blizzard conditions with fine snow showers and gales, had a dusting, these affected Ashford/Stanwell/Heathrow area, and then over around the Esher area Surrey. Horsham in Sussex reported 5 inches of snow(family there) during the very cold spell. I think it was Monday evening was the coldest, never have i for years felt such a freezing wind chill in the gales! certainly one of the coldest in my top 10. The flooding has been locally quite big around here over the weekend in Stanwell-next to Heathrow(i have moved) thunder bolt reported Saturday night 815pm just south of Kingston-upon-Thames, also heavy hail also reported in that area.

I'm now in a new area so new experiences. When i was in Walton-on-Thames and the areas around there, quite often during convective weather during warm/hot spells i would watch the dark skies further north as storms went around the edge(although we did get some but more were north), so now i am further north near London i might just experience more inland thunderstorms.

Thanks for reading and i hope to be back on the forum, but no weather watch maps, i will post text based info though, and state areas to be affected by whatever interesting weather there may be!

Some ppn inland SE now, and temps are around or below freezing and dew points low enough for this to be wintry, sleet/snow showers early i think. Thundery action poss today maybe hail.

ESS

Edited March 18, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[fatyido]

Also a foggy start here, temp. 0.4 c

[Summer of 76]

Also a foggy start here, temp. 0.4 c

snap, same here

[SHM040519]

Hi John, thanks for your expert analysis as usual. Fantastic to have your input in this forum!

You worry me when you say Tuesday into Wednesday snow! I'm flying from Gatwick Wednesday at midday, what are your views!?

Thanks in advance!

[Snowangel-MK]

Thick frost and some freezing fog here to start the working week.....

Please note: Icy stretches are likely on untreated roads and pavements this morning.

After yesterday’s heavy rain, sleet and snow, paved surfaces have been left cold and wet. Clearing skies allowed temperatures to fall further, leading to ice formation; MetO yellow warnings for ICE were issued last night and are in place until 9am today.

Take care if your out and about first thing!

Yellow Warning of Ice for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, East Sussex, Kent, Greater London, Brighton and Hove, Slough & Medway

Yellow Warning of Ice for East of England :

Bedford, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton, Essex & Thurrock

Issued at:

2217 on Sun 17 Mar 2013

Valid from:

2100 on Sun 17 Mar 2013

Valid to:

0900 on Mon 18 Mar 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1363564800

Edited March 18, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Coast]

Moaning all!

GFS overnight has a very limited impact in or region for any white stuff Tuesday and Wednesday:

(nothing at all for Tuesday in fact)

NAE just coming into the time frame and has some over the SE and a little in EA:

Quite different from GFS at this range, I'll go and get the NMM to see if it corresponds.

[Snowangel-MK]

I'm now in the 2,000 posts community, a large proportion of it was just nonsense though

To MKSnowAngel...

I'm not going to do what I did at 'TheWeatherOutlook' LOL.

What took you so long

Book is in the post

[Coast]

NMM even more sparse than GFS for Tuesday and Wednesday:

I'd like to see a bit more through today, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for anything widespread or intense at this stage - it looks like anything that we do get will be more to the North and East of the region on current data.

[VillagePlank]

I wouldn't have called for snow, today, in the SE region.

Theta-W (for March 5C or lower is good) supports it,

But DP's (0C or lower) and 850's (-5C or lower) are completely the wrong side of marginal,

All in all a nice surprise if does happen, but not expecting anything wintry -at all - especially away from hills and windward slopes.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[SLEETY]

still a chance of another heavy snowfall for our region at the end of the week.Too far out to know yet,as even the Met are uncertain as they forecast rain or snow for the end of the week

More runs needed

Edited March 18, 2013 by SLEETY

[chilly milly]

No chance of a mini heatwave on Saturday then, my son is getting married.

Congratulations to your son fizzy.

[chilly milly]

I'm now in the 2,000 posts community, a large proportion of it was just nonsense though

To MKSnowAngel...

I'm not going to do what I did at 'TheWeatherOutlook' LOL.

Well done PS.

well done perfect

i am going to release my summer forecast when i get to 5000 posts

Only 184 posts to go. Hurry up John.

[Tamara]

The professional opinion is not optimistic for our region to see much if any snow this coming week with the emphasis on rain instead, especially in the more western parts of our region. I think in such a situation where any more fun and games with the white stuff is going to be evasive then some fine dry weather with Spring sunshine would be infinitely preferable to soakings from the atlantic.

Last March afterall brought some lovely sunny weather - and therefore some garden work, which I always find enjoyable, would be something to look forward to if conditions would dry up at last When will they though?

[Coast]

Nope, no matter how you look at it, GFS this morning says more rain for us on Friday:

I know it's not the be all and end all + it's only one model one run, but I'm finding the increasingly difficult 'hunt for snow' getting a bit tiresome now and I want to move on to a late Spring/Summer of sunshine and storms TBH.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Coast

[snow raven]

I know it's not the be all and end all + it's only one model one run, but I'm finding the increasingly difficult 'hunt for snow' getting a bit tiresome now and I want to move on to a late Spring/Summer of sunshine and storms TBH.

Same here - had enough of the cold - bring on warm sunshine and the hope for a decent storm or 10!

[Tamara]

Same here - had enough of the cold - bring on warm sunshine and the hope for a decent storm or 10!

That's greedy Would we have such hopes for snow in the winter? And this is coming from one who has storm jitters

Edited March 18, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Coast]

Stepping back from Friday and the cold rain GFS is showing this morning, there may be a chance of a few flurries late on Wednesday across EA (if this pans out) before that turns back to rain:

Further South in the region we get cold fog through the night and into the early hours, not my favourite weather at all

I think the period of weather coming up is a bit like Russell Brand, promises to be exciting and edgy at first, but when it actually gets here its a bit boring, rambles on for ages not really achieving much and would be better off going away for the season and letting something warmer, fresher and more exciting into the frame.

[Tamara]

Nope, no matter how you look at it, GFS this morning says more rain for us on Friday:

I know it's not the be all and end all + it's only one model one run, but I'm finding the increasingly difficult 'hunt for snow' getting a bit tiresome now and I want to move on to a late Spring/Summer of sunshine and storms TBH.

I certainly look forward to sunshine and longer days and ever lighter evenings for sure. We might have to be patient for that though Whatever the later Spring and Summer bring, we sure won't empty our reservoirs this year

[Coast]

we sure won't empty our reservoirs this year

My garden is ruined now because of the waterlogged conditions and all the moss on the lawn. I'm thinking of totally relaying new turf as I can't put moss killer on it (a menagerie of Guinea pigs, Tortoises, and a Duck running free) and I can't let it carry on as a marsh any longer. I've tried various drainage ideas but water just sits there on grey clay and it has become the village pond.

The patio is green (will take a lot of pressure hosing this year) and I want to get it all sorted for the BBQ season as I like to get the whole al-fresco dining experience under way as soon as it's warm and dry enough!

Edited March 18, 2013 by Coast