April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

[Summer Sun]

7.5 to the 25th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 4.8C while maxima look like climbing above 10C, so remaining on 7.5C tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET on

7.4C to the 27th (5.2)

7.3C to the 28th (4.3)

7.3C to the 29th (7.8]

7.3C to the 30th (6.6)

 

No doubts about a below average month anyway, using whatever average. Good chance of beating last year after corrections.

 

A finish of 7.1C would put us at 7th coldest in the last 50 years.

Edited April 26, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[SomeLikeItHot]

AS I posted on another thread its interesting to contrast this years April and last years, very close in average CET but really very different.

 

April Last year 1 CET daily mean <=4, this year 6 (to 25th, chance of one more maybe on the weekend if lows on the GFS op actually occurred).

 

April Last year 1 CET daily mean >=10, this year 8.

 

or in Standard deviation terms

Last year STdev = 1.6

This year St dev = 3.4 (to 25th, or 3.2 with my estimates for the rest of the month).

 

or in words

Last year coolish throughout

This year, very cold start warm middle, coolish end .

[Lettucing Gutted]

 

When was the last time that we had two consecutive Aprils that were at least 0.5C below the average? It think it was 1977 and 1978.

Ha you beat me to it! I was just thinking the same thing.

[Harve]

7.3C to the 28th (4.3)

This is surely a notably cool day for the end of April. The coldest CET mean for a day in May is 2.9c, so a slightly cooler day than forecast could produce something impressive. Edited April 26, 2013 by Harve

[Roger J Smith]

These are the record daily highest and lowest CET means (from 1772 to present):

 

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ..... 3.3 (1981) 
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ..... 2.7 (1919) 
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ..... 3.0 (1826)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ..... 0.7 (1856) 

30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ..... 2.6 (1945)

 

Mark's post evidently belongs in the May thread?

[Radiating Dendrite]

I reckon an above average month is on the cards, so will plump for 12.4c

I think you are bit late with your entry? lol!

[Weather-history]

Which average?

For the entire record, the 20th Century average, the 61-90 average and the 71-00 average, it is 1977 and 1978

For the 81-10 average it's 2000 and 2001

The reason I was vague about the average is that I was referring to the two consecutive Aprils that were at least 0.5C below the then "current" 30 year average of the time ie in this case 1941-70. It could have been 1931-60, 1921-50 etc. if it were say the two Aprils in question were in the 50s or 60s etc.

2000 and 2001 only became at least 0.5C below the average was against a future 30 year average. It wasn't at the time and that is what I was meaning, of that time.

Edited April 26, 2013 by Weather-history

[dec10snow]

October 2010-January 2011 by the 61-90 averages.

Thank you what about before that, does anyone know the last time there were four consecutive below average months, going by 61-90, before October 2010 to January 2011?

[Mark Bayley]

I think you are bit late with your entry? lol!

I seem to have posted in the April thread, i'll pop over to the May one

Edit: Someones done it for me, thanks!

Edited April 27, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[Methuselah]

I seem to have posted in the April thread, i'll pop over to the May one

Edit: Someones done it for me, thanks!

No probs!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The reason I was vague about the average is that I was referring to the two consecutive Aprils that were at least 0.5C below the then "current" 30 year average of the time ie in this case 1941-70. It could have been 1931-60, 1921-50 etc. if it were say the two Aprils in question were in the 50s or 60s etc.

2000 and 2001 only became at least 0.5C below the average was against a future 30 year average. It wasn't at the time and that is what I was meaning, of that time.

 

I get you! That method creates a certain amount of confusion and awkwardness though. Such as with 2000 and 2001, they'd have to be compared to two separate 30 years averages,  61-90 and 71-00.

I'd suggest using the 20th century average when comparing across multiple decades, but each to their own.

 

But with respect to your original question, it's actually 1978 and 1979. The 1941-70 average is as high as the 1981-10 average, both rounding to 8.5C, giving April 1979 an anomaly of -0.66C and 1978 a -1.96C anomaly.

[coram]

I took a punt at 6.3 (post no.64). I don't think that this has been included in the table of predictions. Could someone include this in the table please.

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 26th

[Weather-history]

I get you!

I am glad to know!

[damianslaw]

The CET looks like ending up very similiar to last April's CET, but as has been mentioned, this April has been very different to last April. Last April was cool throughout with consistently low maxima, though less cold minima. This month has been topsy turvy with a very cold start, a warmish middle and a cool end. It has also been a much drier month than April 12 and I suspect a much sunnier month for many places.

[Guest pjl20101]

That is what I am thinking Damian as I've liked this months weather theme and preferred it to last April which was constant rain, wheras the rain we've had this year has been more showery and overall quite a nice month albeit cooler than average with some southerly tracking jet stream moments. This month has reminded me of months such as august 2007, June 1999 etc. Loved it.

[Roger J Smith]

I took a punt at 6.3 (post no.64). I don't think that this has been included in the table of predictions. Could someone include this in the table please.

 

 

You're in the table in the scoring thread, wouldn't worry about it as Jackone probably fills out his table directly.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

7.5 to the 27th

[Guest pjl20101]

7.4 to the 28th.

[SomeLikeItHot]

So based on the min of 4.1 for today and forecasts, ending on 7.4 or 7.5 before adjustments. likely 7.4 or less after adjustments.

Edited April 29, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.5 to the 29th and with a minimum of 2.7 and max in the low teens is likely to stay there tomorrow.

 

So its just down to adjustments.

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.2 to 7.4C after correction perhaps?

[Methuselah]

Just goes to show how cold that first week was...

[Don]

7.5 to the 29th and with a minimum of 2.7 and max in the low teens is likely to stay there tomorrow.

 

So its just down to adjustments.

Manley has it at 7.3 to the 29th, so perhaps a final figure of 7.3C after adjustments?