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April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

Roger J Smith
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

GFS 06z projection is 6.6 to the 23rd.

 

We actually get close to that in the next couple of days, however some colder nights will stop the upward tredectory towards the weekend

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Romped to 5.7C here going to be interesting to see how high it goes. Certainly going to be a lot warmer than last April which looked rather unlikely a week ago.

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Aphelion369 Newbie

Aphelion369

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted

Minmium today is 3.8C, while maxima were around 8C so an increase to 4.2C is likely tomorrow

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

4.5C to the 12th (8.0)

4.7C to the 13th (7.5)

5.3C to the 14th (12.9)

5.8C to the 15th (12.8]

6.0C to the 16th (9.6)

6.2C to the 17th (8.5)

6.4C to the 18th (10.0)

 

 

A big rise today upto 5.4c to the 14th

 

 

GFS 06z projection is 6.6 to the 23rd.

 

We actually get close to that in the next couple of days, however some colder nights will stop the upward tredectory towards the weekend

Hi,

I'm fairly new to this forum. I wanted to find out where you get these GFS data from? Which website? Thanks.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

Hi,

I'm fairly new to this forum. I wanted to find out where you get these GFS data from? Which website? Thanks.

This one. go to charts and data, Ensembles are probably easiest to look at this for. Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

Romped to 5.7C here going to be interesting to see how high it goes. Certainly going to be a lot warmer than last April which looked rather unlikely a week ago.

A lot warmer? are you talking CET or your own local measurement?

Last year April CET was 7.2 - I would think that we would be expecting something similar or may be 0.1 - 0.2 above it this year looking a the models currently. - Obviously there is still considerable variability in what may happen in the last week of the month. If the mean CET was 10 each day for the rest of the month we would get to around 7.9 - ie 61-90 average, but I think we will get lower than that.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Any ideas why the CET hasn't updated for a couple of days. I am guessing its not me, as no one else has posted it since the 15ths value.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Any ideas why the CET hasn't updated for a couple of days. I am guessing its not me, as no one else has posted it since the 15ths value.

 

Not sure why it hasn't updated TBH Philip Eden's Climate UK website hasn't updated since the 15th either

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Looking at the GFS and ECM ensembles suggests we are looking at an end of month CET in the range 7 - 7.6

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

6.6C in Sunny Sheffield going to a huge difference between March and Aprils average temps

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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

11.2C required for the remaining 12 days to reach the 1981-2010 average.

 

Something in the range of 7.5C - 8.2C looks likely at the moment depending on if the warm spell next week is more intense and prolonged or if the projected colder last few days come to fruition.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

11.2C required for the remaining 12 days to reach the 1981-2010 average.

 

Something in the range of 7.5C - 8.2C looks likely at the moment depending on if the warm spell next week is more intense and prolonged or if the projected colder last few days come to fruition.

Personally I would put the estimate range a bit lower - more like 7.3 to 8. I think we are most likely going to come in cooler than the the 61-90 average (7.9) before adjustments.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Yet another month very much likely to come in below the average CET wise, but probably only slightly so. The end of the month looks a chilly affair and any real warmth in the coming days will be reserved for the SE.

 

How many months since April 2012 have come in below the 71-00 average? Personally I don't think we should be comparing to the 61-90 averages.

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

How many months since April 2012 have come in below the 71-00 average? Personally I don't think we should be comparing to the 61-90 averages.

Mar 2013: 2.7 (-3.6)

Feb 2013: 3.2 (-1.0)

Jan 2013: 3.5 (-0.7)

Dec 2012: 4.8 (-0.3)

Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Comparing to 1961-90 averages is useful as it does indicate how just cool the period has been. It ends effectively any argument.

Mar 2013: 2.7 (-3.0)

Feb 2013: 3.2 (-0.6)

Jan 2013: 3.5 (-0.3)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.9)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.5)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-0.6)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.7)

7 of the last 12 months have been at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average.

Believe it or not, starting from January 2000, it wasn't until March 2006 that we recorded the 7th month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average.

There were only 12 from January 2000 to December 2009. There have been 15 since and including January 2010

Edited by Weather-history
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Minimum today of 6.0C while maxima look like reaching over 13C, so an increase to 7.0C on tomorrows update is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.0C to the 21st (6.7)

7.1C to the 22nd (8.3)

7.3C to the 23rd (12.6)

7.5C to the 24th (12.4)

7.6C to the 25th (9.3)

7.6C to the 26th (6.9)

7.4C to the 27th (4.4)

 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

For 30 years averages, the top 5 for April in the CET series are

 

1982 - 2011:   8.65C

1937 - 1966:   8.61C
1983 - 2012:   8.61C
1935 - 1964:   8.58C
1936 - 1965:   8.58C
 
If this April finishes anything higher than 8.2C, then 1984-2013 will take the top spot.
Anything above 6.8C guarantees 2nd highest.
 

 

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

On track for the coldest April, since last year...

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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted (edited)

7.6C to the 26th (6.9)

7.4C to the 27th (4.4)

That sub 5C daily CET predicted for the 27th looks interesting. It could be the coolest end to April since at least 1989. Edited by Craig Evans
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

That sub 5C daily CET predicted for the 27th looks interesting. It could be the coolest end to April since at least 1989.

And we know how that summer turned out?

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

A minima of 6C for today seems a little high to me? Most places in the midlands got near freezing or even below.

 

Perhaps we'll see a big downward correction for the minimum today?

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