April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

[Kentish Man]

7.7C please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

8.4 C

[The watcher]

Mid April Euro High and Azores to dominate, cold vanishing by mid month.

7.9c

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

7.1C please

[March Blizzard]

6.3C please.

[Carl46Wrexham]

6.1c please

[Harve]

I'll try 7.2: cold returning mid-late month after an above average spell. Identical to last April's CET.

[A Winter's Tale]

April CET statistics and trivia AND entries

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)

12.0 ... Craig Evans!

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)

11.6 ... Backtrack

11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)

10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)

10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

9.4 ...

9.3 ... Polar Gael

9.2 ... average for 2001-12

9.0 ... DiagonalRedLine -average for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?)

8.9 ... Bobd29

8.7 ... mikeocarrol

8.5 ... average for 1981-2010

8.4 ... easy-oasy, AtlanticFlamethrower

8.3 ... Stationary Front

8.2 ... Gavin (better luck this time! ) , dec10snow

8.1 ... virtualsphere, Norrance, Jackone -average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)

8.0 ... mulzy - average for 19th century 1801-1900

7.9 ... Rybris Ponce, The watcher -average for all data 1659-2012, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800

7.8 ... DR(S)NO

7.7 ... AVFC, Roger J Smith, Kentish Man

7.6 ... millhouse, Mark Bayley, The PIT, DR Hosking

7.5 ... summer blizzard, m1chaels, seabreeze86, Adeyrn Coch, Weather-history, TonyH, A Winter's Tale

7.4 ... 22nov10blast

7.3 ... jonboy, stewfox, geoffw -average for 1659-1700

7.2 ... Portland Paul, sundog, Nibrasso, Harve

7.1 ... pij20101, Midlands Ice Age, RAIN RAIN RAIN

7.0 ... IanR

6.9 ... Steve B, Cymro, Ferryhill Weather, DAVID SNOW

6.8 ... Snow White, Terminal Moraine, Aphelion369

6.7 ... ihatetherain, Paul T

6.5 ... CongletonHeat, BARRY, Duncan McAlister

6.3 ... March Blizzard

6.2 ... Xyplode

6.1 ... Carl46Wrexham

6.0 ... SomeLikeItHot, Gael-Force

5.8 ... Yarmy - 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)

5.7 ... AWD

5.6 ... be cause

5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799)

5.3 ... geoffw

5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809

4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

-0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)

-0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

Thanks to RJS for the trivia.

Looks like April is going to start on a cold note, probably turning to closer to average temperatures and it's all up in the air with regards to the final two-thirds. I don't mind which side of the average this month will end up as, but I'm hoping for a very Spring-like month with some elements of early summer and late winter weather. I'm going for a below average month overall. 7.5C

Edited March 31, 2013 by A Winter's Tale

[Stargazer]

Let's say 7.8.

[Great Plum]

7.9 please

[Roger J Smith]

I have another version of the table of entries on the go, will post that in the results thread at about 0030h with all the on-time entries.

Meanwhile, I have revised down to 6.4 C before the deadline. Feeling that the warming trend may be weaker and also dealing with a very large negative starting point when it comes.

AWT, if you decide to post a table again, I believe Jackone would like them in the results thread (and then I would have known about it before now, but that's no big deal). You probably have editing available for a few hours, so please move mine to 6.4, thanks. Also, if you're editing, geoffw revised to 7.3, you've got him at that and also his earlier 5.3. I'm using your table to proofread my table as you can see. May as well since I'm waiting now for midnight. I also have coram at 6.3, stargazer at 7.8, damianslaw 7.7 plus anyone who entered after you posted.

Edited March 31, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.0C thanks

[godber]

6.6c for me thanks, hopefully closer than my march guess!!

[reef]

Another below average month:

7.4C

[Thundery wintry showers]

7.8C- cold dry first third, then unsettled and rather less cold, but failing to reach average.

[davehsug]

8.8c please

[Jack Wales]

8.1C please

[Muffelchen]

7.2°C for me please.

[summer blizzard]

7.0C thanks

One thing that may have passed us all by is that with you suggesting the opening week is to be cold that means a pretty to very warm second half is expected by most.

[Weather-history]

The mid March to mid April period is going to be very interesting. It looks like being the coldest such period in x years.

Edited April 1, 2013 by Weather-history

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

sorry late

7.9 please

[lorenzo]

Not played this before, sincerely hope this guess is wrong 6.6

[feno13]

9.1 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by xcweather, it looks like minima were around 0C last night while maxima are around 4C, so something between 1.5 and 2.5C seems likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.1C to the 2nd (2.2)

2.2C to the 3rd (2.5)

2.2C to the 4th (1.9)

2.4C to the 5th (3.2)

2.5C to the 6th (3.3)

2.7C to the 7th (3.6)

2.5C to the 8th (1.5)

GFS showing a remarkably cold first week to April. The ECM has a very different scenario though.

If we did end up on 2.5C by the 8th, we'd need to average 10.7C/day for the remainder of the month just to reach the 81-10 average of 8.5C.

Have the daily record for early April been posted? Coldest first 7 days?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

late in this -- year 7.2 please