April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

[Stu_London]

3.2C to the 7th

Confirmed as the coldest 1st week in April since 1922.

Last night was the first CET minimum over 0C for 15 days

We still haven't had a minimum over 1.5C since 16th March.

Staggering given the vast majority of those stats are post equinox.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Stu_London

[Weather-history]

The last 31 days were colder than February 1996 and January 1997

8th March-7th April 2013: 2.4C

That's only 0.1C warmer than December 1995!

Edited April 9, 2013 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.5c to the 8th

[Milhouse]

A rapid rise likely at the weekend with Saturday night minima widely 7 or 8c.

[GRHinPorts]

Several hints in the models now of warmer developments. Given the latter half of April has more potential for warmth that the first half it would seem very possible we could still beat last years fairly low 7.2 but what kind of average would be looking at to get to that point from here?

[Milhouse]

To reach the 81-10 average we would need to average 10.32c for the remainder of the month. To reach 7.2c it would have to be 8.54c.

[noggin]

The CET anomaly for April, up to the 8th, is -3.0c. Is there any possibility of it ending up as a positive anomaly?

I only ask because January, February and March anomalies were negative and it would surely be impressive to have April end up negative as well.

Thank you in advance.

[Milhouse]

The CET anomaly for April, up to the 8th, is -3.0c. Is there any possibility of it ending up as a positive anomaly?

I only ask because January, February and March anomalies were negative and it would surely be impressive to have April end up negative as well.

Thank you in advance.

A remote chance of April ending above average. I would say 85% sure it will be below the 81-10 average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.8C while maxima climbed to around 10C, so an increase to about 3.8C seems likely for tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

3.8C to the 10th (4.6)

4.1C to the 11th (6.4)

4.5C to the 12th (9.0)

4.9C to the 13th (9.5)

5.5C to the 14th (13.3)

5.9C to the 15th (11.8]

6.1C to the 16th (9.3)

[Lettucing Gutted]

The CET anomaly for April, up to the 8th, is -3.0c. Is there any possibility of it ending up as a positive anomaly?

I only ask because January, February and March anomalies were negative and it would surely be impressive to have April end up negative as well.

Thank you in advance.

April 1984 had a very cold first week but finished above average. It won't surprise me if this April could go the same way. Edited April 10, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Summer Sun]

A rise to 3.7c to the 9th

[Stu_London]

April 1984 had a very cold first week but finished above average. It won't surprise me if this April could go the same way.

there isn't really any clear signal for the sort of warmth needed for that yet, so I would say unlikely. It does look like the prolonged spell well below average is behind us and not coming back, so a rising CET for most of the month looks likely. I'd be happy with 7C (if i'd entered!)

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 4.0c to the 10th

[reef]

Its going to be very difficult to reach even the 1981-2010 average now. 10.8C would be required for the remaining 20 days of the month to do so.

 

It just shows how unusually cold the first 10 days have been.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minmium today is 3.8C, while maxima were around 8C so an increase to 4.2C is likely tomorrow

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

4.5C to the 12th (8.0)

4.7C to the 13th (7.5)

5.3C to the 14th (12.9)

5.8C to the 15th (12.8]

6.0C to the 16th (9.6)

6.2C to the 17th (8.5)

6.4C to the 18th (10.0)

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 11th

[Summer Sun]

4.5c to the 12th

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 13th

[reef]

4.8c to the 13th

Chances of reaching above the 1981-2010 seem pretty remote now, we would require 11.2C for the remaining 17 days to do it (13th-30th April 2011 was 12.0C). Today's value will certainly exceed that by quite a bit though.

[damianslaw]

Quite a marked upward turn taking place in the CET, 0.2-0.3 degree increase each day. Today was very mild in the CET zone, so we may see it as 5.2 degrees tomorrow, still significantly below the average.

 

At the half way stage, too early to call what the likely finish will be, but odds of a below average month are still very high, the outlook looks a little above average at best, indeed more average or even a little below average as we move towards the end of the month which could mean the coldest April since 1989.

[Guest pjl20101]

We have to bear in mind two things firstly the CFS modified how cold it was gonna be this month and secondly the solar activity is a lot higher than it should be at the moment, so the CET I think at this stage will finish around average. Depends on the daytime maximums I guess as that is detriment on CET values. Think that my 7.1 guess may be either right on the money or a bit on the low side and it depends if the northerly develops or not.

[Summer Sun]

A big rise today upto 5.4c to the 14th

[Roger J Smith]

Looks to be headed for about 7.5 now, before adjustments.

Edited April 15, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.8 to the 15th

[Weather-history]

Looks like the coldest mid March to mid April period since at least WWII. Infact it could be since 1917.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Weather-history