South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 21st March 2013 18:00hrs>

[Isabellesnanny]

Does anybody know when the snow is due to hit my area - is it still early hours Saturday or has there been movemnt with that ?

[Iceni]

Personally I think Gary should be a mushroom. He's a fungi. Respect Gary, you said what everyone else is thinking.

Someone on here whose daughter was a teacher, was hoping it would snow a bit so her school could close for the day and they could go on a Christmas shopping trip together.

It made me see red, but unlike Gary, I wasn't brave enough to comment.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Iceni

[blackprince]

Just checked the NW forecast for Sunday!!!!! 6am 95% chance of snow,27.2mph wind with 35mph gusts,1c and wind chill

of -8c.........and guess what....my first fishing competition of the year !!!! I think we will freeze,this time last year we were in shirt sleeves....I do love the British weather

[Eskimo]

Does anybody know when the snow is due to hit my area - is it still early hours Saturday or has there been movemnt with that ?

Saturday morning between 2am-9am, my best guess.

Edited March 21, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Lampostwatcher]

Does anybody know when the snow is due to hit my area - is it still early hours Saturday or has there been movemnt with that ?

no snow has been forecast

[steveinsussex]

From Fergie

The substantial weakening and reduction of PPN rates/amounts by early Saturday onwards into S/SE has good continuity now, i.e. as the upper forcing tends to overrun....

[Eskimo]

I would report what weather I'm having right now but all I can see is black.

Going to have to ring the council to replace that bulb tomorrow urgently so I can see the snow

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 18z indicating some wintry precipitation for the north of the region tonight..

Then the following charts for the pivoting front tomorrow evening into Saturday, the snow-line moving south. Going off these charts, it may not be until the early hours of Saturday until the snow begins to make an appearance:

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/30-574.GIF?21-18

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/33-574.GIF?21-18

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/36-574.GIF?21-18

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/39-574.GIF?21-18

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/42-574.GIF?21-18

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/45-574.GIF?21-18

[kold weather]

From Fergie

The substantial weakening and reduction of PPN rates/amounts by early Saturday onwards into S/SE has good continuity now, i.e. as the upper forcing tends to overrun....

Yeah, models suggests this starts to take place around 09z and the front is far weaker by 13z. Slight east shift in the main focus zone on Saturday morning on the 18z GFS.

I'd suggest there is likely to be good snowfall between 05-11z for quite a few locations in the SE.

Edited March 21, 2013 by kold weather

[snowking]

Right then, 18z data trickling out as I speak, but heres some analysis from the 12z.

First of all to say the continuity between the GFS and ECMWF remains this evening as far as Tomorrow and Saturday goes.

Tomorrow morning may catch a few by surprise, given 850's and dew points, my estimation is that the A120 could act as a good cut off point for tomorrow. To the north of this (so, essentially Northern Home Counties and remainder of East Anglia) whilst nothing particularly problematic looks likely at this stage, some good cross model consensus (12z NAE excepted - interesting to see where the 18z will weigh in on this) of some light sleet/snow to start the day, rain/sleet to the south of this looks likely at present.

This from the 12z Meteociel WRF-NMM:

However, during tomorrow afternoon, I would expect much of this will turn back to rain/sleet for the whole region.

Its then overnight Friday and with a particular focus on Saturday morning that is now the concern. The GFS and ECMWF both in good agreement for Saturday morning, and these are shown below. During friday night, the high res ECMWF and indeed the various WRF/NMM products available, indicate bands of rain/sleet/snow crossing the whole region, at present the Thames acts as a good cut off line for the Friday night period, though even here it will likely take until the early hours before we see the precipitation falling all as snow:

The band then gets its act together somewhat during Saturday morning (and how is this for cross model consensus on the placement of precipitation:

So, the main period for snowfall at present looks to be around mid morning for the Home Counties, Across the general M40 type locale running down towards the M4, and with wind gusts of up to 50mph projected, driving conditions could become really rather dangerous for a time.

Amounts? Well at present a general 5-10cms looks likely through East Anglia, and the chance of 2-5cms for northern parts of Kent through Saturday (and more especially if the ECMWF theme of bringing in further precip from the South-East on Sunday continues). Somewhere though, and at present of course this looks likely to be somewhere around the Northern Home Counties, we could just creep up to between the 10-15cm category.

The main exception to all of this is Northamptonshire, where the Midlands influence could well prove more decisive in terms of snowfall amounts, and 20cm doesn't seem unreasonable here.

Further South and West in the region, I am afraid this time (on current output) things don't look to be going your way. However, I would add that the ECMWF 12z is more keen on snow shower development (albeit rather light) quite extensively across Eastern Britain into next week, so all may not be lost just yet.

Any further questions I would be happy to take, but unfortunately given the situation my time is limited. Leave them here and I'll see if I can get back to you.

SK

[Hammer]

From Fergie.

EURO4 has 10cm across likes of Essex-Herts-Beds; 5cm Cotswolds; 10cm Chilterns; fading to 1-2cm into M4 corridor

[Floatylight]

What's the betting ps will be in homebase tomorrow trying to find a streetlamp bulb haha.no sorry thats awful;)

[Hammer]

Could we go to EA & Three Counties thread again?

[Pixel]

NW Overload in March amazing

Has anyone seen any snow from the sky via their lampost yet?

[Biensie]

Was it just me on the naughty step and not aloud in for an hour?

[Stevieray1]

From Fergie

The substantial weakening and reduction of PPN rates/amounts by early Saturday onwards into S/SE has good continuity now, i.e. as the upper forcing tends to overrun....

What does that mean???!

[Ruthie]

Windy here in brentford. Good to have the forum back...

[Eskimo]

And we're back!! I was furiously rocking in the corner waiting for my forum fix.

Edited March 21, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[john pike]

have i missed anything?

[Jan_Bromley]

Net Weather expecting a busy time ahead?

[Andy H]

I would report what weather I'm having right now but all I can see is black.

Going to have to ring the council to replace that bulb tomorrow urgently so I can see the snow

That's strange because all our lamp posts are out tonight as well?

[Bluebreezer54]

Ok I get Gary's wry sense of humour now so no offence taken. Im just a bit tetchy at the moment, and my mood is not being helped by this seemingly never ending 'spell' of cold weather. I was in the middle of posting this earlier when the community forum went down.

Some very heavy rainfall totals being posted from down in the West Country today, and it seems flooding may become an issue there.

[Eskimo]

That's strange because all our lamp posts are out tonight as well?

Ours shut off at precisely 00:06 every night, but the nearest lamp post has a blown bulb so I can't see anything. Has yours been off all night then?

NMM wants snowfall tonight for the home counties. May happen in the heavier precips.

Edited March 21, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[yamkin]

Emergency crews have already dealt with 500 calls for help as gale force winds and spot thunderstorms continue to batter parts of Melbourne on Thursday. Most of the damage has been caused by fallen trees, while power lines are also down in many suburbs, as wind gusts reach up to 110km/hr. Construction sites have also been affected by the wind. A crane dropped a load of formwork tables at the new Cancer Centre this morning. Huge waves at Portsea have also broken the mooring of up to a dozen boats.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/...30321-38592-AUS

weather causes problems throughout the world

not much we can do about it

Major flooding in Cornwall as well

[Allezwasps.]

Heavy rain here in bracknell,, more chance of arsenal winning a trophy than snow here i fear !!!