South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->

[Joe Levy]

Wouldn't have through so Jethro, dew points are very low. Currently -4c in two bridges a couple of miles from me. Only down to -1c here (I say only, like thats tropical or something!!)

Perhaps its all to do with intensity.

The dew points are low enough that if the snow is very light, it won't settle because it sublimes (solid to gas/vapour) before or when it hits the ground. For settling snow, you need dew points that bit closer to zero unless the precipitation is very intense.

[Beast of Plympton]

Yes well if it keeps intensifying then it might settle! Especially since there is so much cloud cover. We will have to see what happens when that band of precipitation to the east of us arrives

Indeed, looks like it may be pivoting, like you said.... GFS still has a bit of snow for us on friday.... Lets hope the Met are wrong like last time when our low slid off to France after they said we would get hit!! They say this time it will slide off to France.... I think the weather likes a bit of reverse phycology!! Lets hope.....

The dew points are low enough that if the snow is very light, it won't settle because it sublimes (solid to gas/vapour) before or when it hits the ground. For settling snow, you need dew points that bit closer to zero unless the precipitation is very intense.

Thanks buddy!!

[jethro]

It's intensified a bit now with bigger flakes, they're the light, fluffy ethereal type not soggy, slushy ones.

Anyone know if this is forecast to carry on and lead to something a bit more substantial?

[Joe Levy]

Indeed, looks like it may be pivoting, like you said.... GFS still has a bit of snow for us on friday.... Lets hope the Met are wrong like last time when our low slid off to France after they said we would get hit!! They say this time it will slide off to France.... I think the weather likes a bit of reverse phycology!! Lets hope.....

Thanks buddy!!

Well on friday I will be that much further east and north as I'm visiting my grandparents up in Castle Cary, so I may not be so lucky then haha but as for this current batch of showers, hopefully it will continue its pivot southwestwards! I think the shower activity is being aided by a very weak cold front just off the south coast, which has shown up on the most recent fax chart analysis for today. And no problem mate

Edited March 27, 2013 by Joe Levy

[Olly]

Anyone radar watching that is interested to see the forecasted trajectory of the PPN, I have found this site quite useful in the past and goes out to 2 hours ahead... http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/Rainforecast?z=4&lat=55&lon=-4

[Joe Levy]

It's intensified a bit now with bigger flakes, they're the light, fluffy ethereal type not soggy, slushy ones.

Anyone know if this is forecast to carry on and lead to something a bit more substantial?

It's not forecast to lead to anything substantial, though interestingly the latest fax charts have placed a cold front just to the south of us, so we shall see...

[Andy Bown]

It's intensified a bit now with bigger flakes, they're the light, fluffy ethereal type not soggy, slushy ones.

Anyone know if this is forecast to carry on and lead to something a bit more substantial?

Not sure however there's a nice band over Wiltshire/Somerset/Dorset now, however it's doing nothing other than make cars slightly damp

as it's not even settling on top of ice in our water feature.

I think had it happened overnight with lower air temperatures then a dusting would have happened by now.

[jethro]

It's not forecast to lead to anything substantial, though interestingly the latest fax charts have placed a cold front just to the south of us, so we shall see...

Thank you.

The sky looks full of it so who knows, we may get a little more.

[Beast of Plympton]

Well on friday I will be that further east and north as I'm visiting my grandparents up in Castle Cary, so I may not be so lucky then haha but as for this current batch of showers, hopefully it will continue its pivot southwestwards! I think the shower activity is being aided by a very weak cold front just off the south coast, which has shown up on the most recent fax chart analysis for today. And no problem mate

Well, maybe you will mate.... Based on the accuracy of current forecasting a 50-100 miles shift north could clintch it for you!! Haha!! I will be keeping an eye on the current batch of showers for the evening then, bit more radar watching never hurts!!

[George]

Met Office cold weather alert service extended for an addition two weeks..

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/03/27/cold-weather-alert-service-extended-to-help-support/

Edited March 27, 2013 by George

[Joe Levy]

Well, maybe you will mate.... Based on the accuracy of current forecasting a 50-100 miles shift north could clintch it for you!! Haha!! I will be keeping an eye on the current batch of showers for the evening then, bit more radar watching never hurts!!

Too true yes well the ideal situation would be that it snows here today or tomorrow, then snows in Castle Cary on friday/saturday and then snows in London until I go to Scotland for a week the following friday, where there is always snow anyway

[jethro]

Met Office cold weather alert extended for an addition two weeks..

http://metofficenews...o-help-support/

Oh joy!

[Beast of Plympton]

Too true yes well the ideal situation would be that it snows here today or tomorrow, then snows in Castle Cary on friday/saturday and then snows in London until I go to Scotland for a week the following friday, where there is always snow anyway

Haha!! Gluttony is a sin!! But when it comes to snow, its impossible to resist!!

[Mapantz]

4.5°C and boring .. as usual. No frost, no ice, no below freezing temps.

[Joe Levy]

Haha!! Gluttony is a sin!! But when it comes to snow, its impossible to resist!!

I know right! though it's not like I'd be stealing the snow... it would just be exceptionally lucky haha knowing my luck, as soon as I leave Exeter there will be really heavy snow here!

[Beast of Plympton]

I know right! though it's not like I'd be stealing the snow... it would just be exceptionally lucky haha knowing my luck, as soon as I leave Exeter there will be really heavy snow here!

You have tempted fate now!! There will heavy snow just hours after every place you leave!! Well good luck on your snow journey mate!!

[Bumpkin]

Well on friday I will be that much further east and north as I'm visiting my grandparents up in Castle Cary, so I may not be so lucky then haha but as for this current batch of showers, hopefully it will continue its pivot southwestwards! I think the shower activity is being aided by a very weak cold front just off the south coast, which has shown up on the most recent fax chart analysis for today. And no problem mate

Castle Cary and the surrounding area only does 1 snow event each winter if we are lucky and we had ours in January

[Joe Levy]

Castle Cary and the surrounding area only does 1 snow event each winter if we are lucky and we had ours in January

Well this is no ordinary winter! So you never know! The chances of it snowing exactly when I'm there are, however, much lower

[Dorsetbred]

The edges of the snowdome, showing up nicely on this latest radar image

[Bumpkin]

Met Office cold weather alert service extended for an addition two weeks..

http://metofficenews...o-help-support/

I'm going back into hibernation, wake me up when its warm and sunny. I've got enough fat reserves to keep me going for a while. We have had light flurries on and off since just after 3pm.

[AWD]

4.5°C and boring .. as usual. No frost, no ice, no below freezing temps.

It is late March and you do live on the Costa Del South Coast.

:p

[Dorsetbred]

I'm going back into hibernation, wake me up when its warm and sunny. I've got enough fat reserves to keep me going for a while. We have had light flurries on and off since just after 3pm.

Ha, UK's own Punxsutawney Phil!

[Argyle1980]

Deep into FI but its nice to see the Azores wake up just in time for the end of spring.

[AWD]

Still no warmth and hint of convective activity in the latest model output. (Reliable timeframe of course).

Sigh! Brain hurts because its so cold here.

Edited March 27, 2013 by AWD

[Bumpkin]

Ha, UK's own Punxsutawney Phil!

When I come out of hibernation I shall predict a glorious summer and hope that I can forecast better than Phil because Phil's predictions have been correct only 39% of the time