scotland Scotland (Alba) Regional Discussion 28th March 2013 22:00hrs>

[NUT]

Is it just me or does it feel pretty humid this morning?

[DR(S)NO]

Is it just me or does it feel pretty humid this morning?

Yes NUT. I felt it as well...already been up to 15c this morning.....cloud currently thickening and I feel there could be some heavy rain around soon.

Indeed having looked at my local forecast its looking like quite a drench week coming up with rain forecast every day..temps not too bad though...mid teens.

[Northernlights]

SPRING HAS  SPRUNG!!!!! Bright blue skies breezy and currently 15 c. Cows grazing non cosmetic grass this morning looking very content. Daffs in full bloom . Best of all the wind no longer bites you.   Countryside is greening in front of your eyes.  

[lorenzo]

These come out upside down but have a look at week 3 and 4 on CFS. Big fat HP cell similar to last year. By my rough workings this anomaly occurs in nearly 70% of years around the 20th - 22nd May and gives us what most class as, that'll be Scotland's summer then..

 

[Northernlights]

These come out upside down but have a look at week 3 and 4 on CFS. Big fat HP cell similar to last year. By my rough workings this anomaly occurs in nearly 70% of years around the 20th - 22nd May and gives us what most class as, that'll be Scotland's summer then..

 

CFS wk3.wk4_20130503.z500.gif

Right aim to sow neeps then once frost  risk has passed  (biennials so don"t want them seeding in first year need bulb production) 

 

 I"ll hold you too that forecast !!!!! 

 

 Garden/farm ground still too wet to work in today but hoping the sun and wind will improve it today for tomorrow.

[Hawesy]

Lovely morning in NE Fife. Good sunny spells, temp up to 16c. Fresh westerly breeze.

[Hairy Celt]

Warm here too, the top layer of soil warming up and an ideal surface for WEEDS - they've been waiting all this time... Hoe, hoe.

 

Wonderful news about some HP weather too, Lorenzo, we can start to breathe and stretch a little at last.

[Buriedundersnow]

These come out upside down but have a look at week 3 and 4 on CFS. Big fat HP cell similar to last year. By my rough workings this anomaly occurs in nearly 70% of years around the 20th - 22nd May and gives us what most class as, that'll be Scotland's summer then..

 

CFS wk3.wk4_20130503.z500.gif

 

that week 4 projection would do me nice all summer would be nice and sunny but not too overly warm

[Benvironment]

The hex is broken! Hovering around 14C which means this wee corner of Fife has recorded its first 'teen' temperature in 217 days!!

[Cheggers]

 Garden/farm ground still too wet to work in today but hoping the sun and wind will improve it today for tomorrow.

I see you're keeping busy though.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=563475873665936

Edited May 5, 2013 by Cheggers

[lorenzo]

NL would hate to be the harbinger of neep disasters so here is some more information to draw from.

 

Here are some reanalysis charts that feature this very anomaly, monster caveat being the other years when it isn't as prevalent features some notable cold troughs.

 

2001 / 2003 / 2005 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2012

 

 

And the not so hot.... 2006 a huge anomaly among the set !

 

2000 / 2002 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2011

 

So on closer inspection, one could argue a nearer 50:50 split than the 70:30 I thought of earlier, still worth looking out for.

 

MJO set for phase 4 at present and this is bullish prediction, as JB noted this progression would dial this feature through it's pattern in accelerated time, also indications of it hovering around the origin mean difficult to draw any conclusions.

Would need a phase 5 to match the anomaly pattern.

 

May rolled forward from years where March featured a hugely negative AO provides this.. for me this is too linear and something is missing, do not think we will see this as the separate years feature heavily a ridge of some extent on the continent for the final 3rd of the month.

 

The charts are  based on the April pattern set by the negative AO pattern, AO / NAO now of course into positive territory, key similarities being the Icelandic troughing and the Pac. Ridge.

 

Will keep an eye on the CFS and see if it remains with this, also the ECM will start sniffing around this by the end of the working week.

 

 

 

 

[Norrance]

The hex is broken! Hovering around 14C which means this wee corner of Fife has recorded its first 'teen' temperature in 217 days!!

I thought that you would break it today. We were down for a walk on West Lomond this morning and by the time we got back to the car the temp was showing 16C and up to 17C as we passed Freuchie. Meanwhile here I reached 16.5C, remarkably the warmest day since the 14th of September 2012 and my first over 14C since the 30th September. Quite cloudy with the odd spot of rain in the fresh breeze but still mild now at 11.5C Edited May 5, 2013 by Norrance

[Hairy Celt]

Gosh that was a nice day, the little I saw of it... Winter to summer over a weekend! And it's the first night since early September that the stove's not been on

[Northernlights]

Gosh that was a nice day, the little I saw of it... Winter to summer over a weekend! And it's the first night since early September that the stove's not been on

Finally  the first night when plant growth will continue overnight as it is currently 10.5c.   

[Hairy Celt]

Finally  the first night when plant growth will continue overnight as it is currently 10.5c.   

Please don't tell the weeds... uh-oh, too late, there's a giant dandelion smashing down the front door   and buttercups smashing the porch windows   

[Benvironment]

Meanwhile here I reached 16.5C, remarkably the warmest day since the 14th of September 2012 and my first over 14C since the 30th September.

Remarkable is the perfect word, not only because we've got these temperatures but because it's been soooooooooo long. Quite amazing spell of weather really when you consider what winter 2011/12 and the subsequent first half of Spring were like.

And it's the first night since early September that the stove's not been on:drinks:

Same here....almost. Lit it first thing this morning expecting another cool day but had to let it burn out by lunchtime 'cause it was too warm

[lorenzo]

Deep Joy, another day under the grey veil !

 

Satellite pretty much tells the whole story, beautiful clear skies for our neighbours, Gunk here.. !

 

 

 

[shuggee]

Cloud cover starting to break up here Lorenzo - maybe there's hope for us yet

[Benvironment]

Still grey. Very very grey

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Spring.

F'in finally.

click-tst.

EDIT. 19 C!

 

 

Edited May 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[NUT]

Cloudy but it's quite warm. Tomorrow looks great then...................that's probably as good as it gets

[Northernlights]

Nice dull humid afternoon superb growing day currently 14c. Got 50% of garden sown up and it is now spitting rain

[Norrance]

Skies clearing now after a mostly cloudy but almost dry day. Currently 12.3C.

[NUT]

Bit balmy out there tonight despite it still being cloudy

[Cheggers]

Grey cool day here till we hit Boness, then it warmed a little. Tomorrow looking better, and I may have an M74 drive with nae rain.

 

Rest of the week looking pish mind!