June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[SomeLikeItHot]

Temperatures in the CET zone already seem largely above 16C, and look like climbing to over 19C, so I'd say a mean of closer to 15C is more likely than 13.3C today?

 

I reckon

13.9C to the 27th (15.0)

14.0C to the 28th (16.2)

14.0C to the 29th (16.2)

14.2C to the 30th (17.7)

 

I think we'll at least reach 14.1C before corrections.

 

 

My understanding is that they take a couple of stations in Lanacashire near Blackburn and Blackpool it seems the max up there is around 13 today, and around 19 in the two stations in the south, so I estimated average of 16. Possibly slightly too low, but I would think it will be less than 19. But we will see. Something similar happens tomorrow where the north is a few degrees cooler than further south.

 

eg

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/blackburn#?tab=last24hours

 

Edit: Hmm just looking at some  more stuff on this and I now see that 2 Lancs stations are averaged to be effectively one station before being  included in the average of 3 stations. That would change my estimates somewhat - eg today would have an av max of 17.5 not 16,and a 14 CET. So basically puts my estimate to the end of month at 14.1 (14.07).

Edited June 27, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[The PIT]

Up to 14C in Sheffield however today wasn't as warm as expected so can't see a rise for us tomorrow. So a chance of main CET to catch up again.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.8 to the 27th. (13.84)

 

Min today of 11.8 and max likely around 17.5

So a Move to 13.9 tomorrow.

 

So that would give (Based on Met forecast for stations near the CET measuring points.

 

28th 13.9 (14.5)

29th 13.9 (15.5)

30th 14.0 (17)

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.8 to the 27th. (13.84)

 

Min today of 11.8 and max likely around 17.5

So a Move to 13.9 tomorrow.

 

So that would give (Based on Met forecast for stations near the CET measuring points.

 

28th 13.9 (14.5)

29th 13.9 (15.5)

30th 14.0 (17)

 

A max of 17.3C, so you're 17.5C guess yesterday was pretty accurate.

Must be about a 90% chance now of being below the 61-90 average yet again?

[noggin]

The CET anomaly is still -0.2 and that is up to the 27th.

Just today and the weekend to go. Will we stay below the average or will we just sneak over it?

How sad am I, to find it quite exciting? I really need to get out more!

[SomeLikeItHot]

A max of 17.3C, so you're 17.5C guess yesterday was pretty accurate.

Must be about a 90% chance now of being below the 61-90 average yet again?

 

Agreed. Unless there is an upward end of month correction - has it ever happenned?

[godber]

If only the cet would stay at 13.8c...

[Don]

A max of 17.3C, so you're 17.5C guess yesterday was pretty accurate.Must be about a 90% chance now of being below the 61-90 average yet again?

I fear that July will break this nice run of below average months with a vengeance! Edited June 28, 2013 by Don

[SomeLikeItHot]

I fear that July will break this nice run of below average months with a vengeance!

 

Fear it?  I like record breaking, but I could do with a bit of warm weather.

 

Still I'm not so sure. Looked warmer a couple of days ago I think than todays runs.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Fear it?  I like record breaking, but I could do with a bit of warm weather.

 

Still I'm not so sure. Looked warmer a couple of days ago I think than todays runs.

 

I think something a bit more extreme would be nice. While June's weather has been generally pleasant, it has been a little boring.

[SomeLikeItHot]

If only the cet would stay at 13.8c...

If it ends at 14.0 unadjusted, 13.8 is possible.

[stewfox]

If only the cet would stay at 13.8c...

 

Sorry I can see it creeping up to 13.9c 

 

13.9 a bit low average to continue the LIA theme.

[nbj2013]

looks like my 14.9C prediction at the end of last month is way off. We started the month with a really nice warm and sunny spell, so I think everyone had high hopes for a real warm - or even hot - month.

 

But as per usual, it quickly went downhill and never got back up (well - to a degree? I suppose it hasn't been too bad)

 

As for July, well I think it may just break this trend and we could see our first above average month for a long while - although I said that about last month, and the month before - so I think my predictions are more of what I would 'like' as apposed to what is more likely to happen.

[Don]

Fear it?  I like record breaking, but I could do with a bit of warm weather.

 

Still I'm not so sure. Looked warmer a couple of days ago I think than todays runs.

Yep, not overly keen on very hot weather, mainly because of the sticky uncomfortable nights that it brings!  Plus I think it would be good to get another below average month - could you imagine the prospect of this 5 years ago?!  6/7 months below the 61-90 average!!  It would have been laughable to most.

 

As for you not being sure about July, you have a very good point.  A great example is late November last year.  All teleconnections and models were strongly pointing towards a cold December and this was backed up by long range forecasts including the Met Office and Netweather.  However, although December certainly started on a cold note, around mid month it turned milder and the rest of the month was mild with the overall CET finishing close to average.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Don

[Summer Sun]

13.9c to the 28th

 

E&W Rain: (Jun 1-28): 38.5mm ( 62 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1-28): 178.8hr ( 99 per cent)

 

(climate uk)

Edited June 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.9c to the 28th

 

E&W Rain: (Jun 1-28): 38.5mm ( 62 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1-28): 178.8hr ( 99 per cent)

 

(climate uk)

 

Yes front page not updated but the daily file is has it at 13.89

 

So with a min today of 11.4, max probably 18.5 ish we would get a CET of 15 today and it would stay at 13.9

 

forecast for Saturday is for a CET around 17,

Which would get a pre adjustment final figure of 14.0 pre corrections.

[The PIT]

My guess of 14C isn't looking too shabby. GFS going for very warm possibly hot day in places tomorrow we shall see. Expected it to be warmer in Sheffield today than the 18.7C max. 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Max about a degree higher than forecast so we might hit 14.0 tomorrow, and a better chance of 14.1 now for the 30th, would need a CET mean of 20 to get to 14.2 so probably 14.1 is the highest possible pre-corrections.

[Summer Sun]

13.9c to the 29th

 

(climate uk)

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looking at observations I think that todays CET will be close to 18 - av max of max of 22 and min of 14 (max of 26 in SE, 22 in SW and 18 in NW) and bring the pre-correction figure to 14.1 - with that number being something like 14.08 and likely subject to correction to the range 13.8-14.1.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at observations I think that todays CET will be close to 18 - av max of max of 22 and min of 14 (max of 26 in SE, 22 in SW and 18 in NW) and bring the pre-correction figure to 14.1 - with that number being something like 14.08 and likely subject to correction to the range 13.8-14.1.

 

Today's min in 12.6C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_est_2013

[SomeLikeItHot]

Today's min in 12.6C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_est_2013

Ok probably very close to 14.05 then for the final pre-correction figure.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Final pre-correction figure of 14.0  (14.03) - on the daily page.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

corrected figure not up yet.

[Summer Sun]

14.0c final figure from climate UK

 

E&W Rain: (Jun 1-30): 38.8mm ( 58 per cent)

 

E&W Sun: (Jun 1-30): 193.5hr (100 per cent)  

 

[Don]

14.0c final figure from climate UK E&W Rain: (Jun 1-30): 38.8mm ( 58 per cent) E&W Sun: (Jun 1-30): 193.5hr (100 per cent)

Come on Hadley, a downward correction to 13.9C please!