June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield down to 14C looks like a cool night coming up so it should drop a bit further. Just the double figures min last night that prevented a larger drop. GFS showing some warm days and nights coming up towards the end of the month. My punt could well be to low.

[The PIT]

Interesting no updates again. They've must have lost the password for the ftp server. Sunny Sheffield down to 13.9C. If the skies clear could be another chilly night if so no change for us tomorrow.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting no updates again. They've must have lost the password for the ftp server. Sunny Sheffield down to 13.9C. If the skies clear could be another chilly night if so no change for us tomorrow.

 

C'mon PIT, lets be realistic here. They're clearly busy trying to figure out how much of an upward adjustment that can get away with, in order to prevent the CET being below the 61-90 mean for 6 months in a row...

[Methuselah]

C'mon PIT, lets be realistic here. They're clearly busy trying to figure out how much of an upward adjustment that can get away with, in order to prevent the CET being below the 61-90 mean for 6 months in a row...

I'm expecting a 10C upward adjustment, Sam...We all know it's been the warmest June since records began!

[Summer Sun]

13.8c to the 25th

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.8c to the 25th

 

Is that Hadley?

[sebastiaan1973]

In the Netherlands june will be colder than normal. Now, 6 months on a row the average month temperature is below average. I wonder is this the case in the UK (Hadley?) as well?

This happened over here for the last time in 1965!

Edited June 26, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[SomeLikeItHot]

Is that Hadley?

 

I can't see that its been updated?

[SomeLikeItHot]

In the Netherlands june will be colder than normal. Now, 6 months on a row the average month temperature is below average. I wonder is this the case in the UK (Hadley?) as well?This happened over here for the last time in 1965!

 

Still looking quite likely although it will probably be only around 0.2 below 61-90 average and still a chance of it going higher than that. It will certainly be below the 81-10 average.

 

Last time there was 6 consecutive below the 61-90 average for the CET was 1979, 

 

Consectuive months below 61-90 av

7 months Dec 78 - Jun 79.

6 months Mar-Sep 77,

6 months April-Oct 74,

7 months Apr-Nov 72

6 months Nov 69-Apr 70

 

and the big one.

12 months Mar 62 - Feb 63

 

Also

6 months Jul - Dec 50.

[Summer Sun]

Is that Hadley?

 

Phillip Eden

[SomeLikeItHot]

Phillip Eden

 

My estimate of the HADCET based on looking at the observation mins and max's at Met stations close to where they take the CET measurements would also put it at 13.8. Using the same stations forecasts for the next 5 days would put it at 13.9-14.0 at the end of month.

[Weather-history]

Last time there was 6 consecutive below the 61-90 average for the CET was 1979,  .

But the 1961-90 average didn't exist in 1979. So in reality if June is below the 1961-90 average then it will be the first time since 1961-90 averages came into existence that there have been 6 consecutive months below the 1961-90 average.

[DAVID SNOW]

But the 1961-90 average didn't exist in 1979. So in reality if June is below the 1961-90 average then it will be the first time since 1961-90 averages came into existence that there have been 6 consecutive months below the 1961-90 average.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

But the 1961-90 average didn't exist in 1979. So in reality if June is below the 1961-90 average then it will be the first time since 1961-90 averages came into existence that there have been 6 consecutive months below the 1961-90 average.

 

They all exist now though, so there's nothing to prevent the comparisons being made, and little reason to limit the comparisons to just 22.5 years of data.

[Weather-history]

They all exist now though, so there's nothing to prevent the comparisons being made, and little reason to limit the comparisons to just 22.5 years of data.

Yes but you can't say the last time it happened is before what you are comparing it to existed.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yes but you can't say the last time it happened is before what you are comparing it to existed.

 

Sure, while it was happening, we couldn't have said it as the 61-90 average didn't exist yet.

But now, in retrospect, I don't see the problem?

[Weather-history]

Sure, while it was happening, we couldn't have said it as the 61-90 average didn't exist yet.But now, in retrospect, I don't see the problem?

Isn't that the problem though it is in retrospect?Look it this way, how would you answer this question. What was the first CET month to return a value that was below the 1961-1990 average? Is it January 1659, 350 years before or January 1991, the first month to occur after 1961-90 came into existence?It's getting mathematically philosophical this :lol: Edited June 26, 2013 by Weather-history

[BornFromTheVoid]

Isn't that the problem though it is in retrospect?

Look it this way, how would you answer this question.

What was the first CET month to return a value that was below the 1961-1990 average?

Is it January 1659, 350 years before or January 1991, the first month to occur after 1961-90 came into existence?

It's getting mathematically philosophical this

 

Or what about a single month?

What year had the first January with a CET value below the 61-90 average?

or

What year had the first January with a CET value below 3.8C?

 

Whether you're comparing to a set reference period/temperature, or comparing with the years own climatological norm, so long as you make it clear which you are doing, both types have their uses.

This is starting to get a little tricky to explain clearly though!

[SomeLikeItHot]

But the 1961-90 average didn't exist in 1979. So in reality if June is below the 1961-90 average then it will be the first time since 1961-90 averages came into existence that there have been 6 consecutive months below the 1961-90 average.

 

Its just a benchmark with which you can compare across time horizons. The question I was answering was. How often does this sort of event occur, and for that its completely valid to search the entire history.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.8 to the 26th.

 

Min today of 10.6 - Going forward on vairous forecasts I think we will get something like.

 

27th  13.8  (13.3)

28th  13.8 (15)

29th  13.9  (16.1)

30th 14.0  (17)

 

Looks like 14.0 is most likely, possibly 14.1 Before corrections.

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.8 to the 26th.

 

Min today of 10.6 - Going forward on vairous forecasts I think we will get something like.

 

27th  13.8  (13.3)

28th  13.8 (15)

29th  13.9  (16.1)

30th 14.0  (17)

 

Looks like 14.0 is most likely, possibly 14.1 Before corrections.

 

Temperatures in the CET zone already seem largely above 16C, and look like climbing to over 19C, so I'd say a mean of closer to 15C is more likely than 13.3C today?

 

I reckon

13.9C to the 27th (15.0)

14.0C to the 28th (16.2)

14.0C to the 29th (16.2)

14.2C to the 30th (17.7)

 

I think we'll at least reach 14.1C before corrections.

[noggin]

The anomaly up to the 26th is -0.2. It looks like it'll be touch and go whether we get another "minus" month.

Has anyone any idea about the likelihood of achieving this?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The anomaly up to the 26th is -0.2. It looks like it'll be touch and go whether we get another "minus" month.Has anyone any idea about the likelihood of achieving this?

 

The 61-90 June average is 14.2C. We may just reach that before end of month corrections are applied, but after corrections, I'd say the odds are strongly in favour of being just below average.

[Don]

The 61-90 June average is 14.2C. We may just reach that before end of month corrections are applied, but after corrections, I'd say the odds are strongly in favour of being just below average.

My 13.9C guess is not looking too bad!

[Gael_Force]

I see Philip Eden also has 13.8 to the 26th ..... are we sure there will be downward corrections on Hadley? I would like to be close for one month.