June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[nbj2013]

Sorry, but could I change mine from 14.2C, which I predicted last week to 14.7C please - as things are looking up!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Despite the positive outlook for the beginning of June, the 06z GFS operational has the first 5 days only averaging about 12C.

[Norrance]

14.2C for me please.

[Paul T]

15.1

[phil nw.]

My first guess for a long while in this comp.

 

I will go for 14.6C.

[Weather-history]

14.0

[BlueHedgehog074]

Aside from some of the promising dry, warm weather showing on various models, I kind of have this feeling that June could be quite a settled month with a fair deal of sunshine. The red line's prediction: 14.2*C.

[Duncan McAlister]

14.7 please. Some warmth looking likely early month with the jet taking a long-awaited holiday north.

[reef]

A rather average 14.4C

[virtualsphere]

14.8C for me please

[godber]

13.8c for me please. Hope i'm wrong and it's a lot higher, but i don't see it happening.

[Polar Gael]

17.5ºC for me please. June is going to rock it. 

[Don]

I hope he's 2.1 degrees off, and you'll still take 16.9 surely.

 

With respect, I hope you're 2.1 degrees off (too high!).  June finishing on 14.8C would be plenty warm enough for me!  We'll see....

 

EDIT 14.8C is not my guess for June!

Edited May 30, 2013 by Don

[coram]

13.7 please

[weather_it_will]

12.68°C Please

Edited May 30, 2013 by Hot Wet Windy Cold No Snow

[mulzy]

14.0C please

[easy-oasy]

15.6°C for me please

[Midlands Ice Age]

14.8C is my guess for June 

 

Midlands Ice Age

[Polar Maritime]

12.9c ta

[Don]

13.9C for me please.  A much better June than last year but still slightly on the cool side.

[Gael_Force]

14.2 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

A tough call. 3 out of the 4 best analogues for June suggest around 1C below average, with the most accurate match, 2006, suggesting well above average. That, coupled with the change in weather patterns recently (+ve AO and NAO) and the favourable weather predicted for the start of the month, I'm going to go with 15.1C

[DAVID SNOW]

Try 13.6  ta.

 

 

PS,My guess for may is 11.4 and not 11.7 as stated in the table.

[Gael_Force]

A tough call. 3 out of the 4 best analogues for June suggest around 1C below average, with the most accurate match, 2006, suggesting well above average. That, coupled with the change in weather patterns recently (+ve AO and NAO) and the favourable weather predicted for the start of the month, I'm going to go with 15.1C

 

Are you looking at reanalysis analogues? I noticed the NOAA 500 analogues have suddenly shifted to cooler years in the 11 day range; some years with a June CET in the twelves now appearing. ie 1971, 1985 and 1991.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Are you looking at reanalysis analogues? I noticed the NOAA 500 analogues have suddenly shifted to cooler years in the 11 day range; some years with a June CET in the twelves now appearing. ie 1971, 1985 and 1991.

 

Yep. The analogues I used were from a brief summer prediction here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76293-summer-2013/?p=2691095

 

The closest year to this was 2006, followed by 1969, then 2001 and 2011. The 2011, 2001 and 1969 mean is 14.0C (-0.5C below the 81-10 average) while 2006 has 15.9C.

Suppose I should clarify, that the 3 closest matches, behind 2006, are 0.5C below average, rather than 1C below as a I mentioned in the previous post.

 

What are the NOAA analogues you're referring to?