June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[The PIT]

Should be 13.7 if they're rounding up. Sunny Sheffield up to 13.9C after yesterday.

[masheeuk]

I thought my predictoion was good but it needs to perk up a tad

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.7 to the 20th.

 

Min today of 12.2, and max likely 18 so rise to 13.8 today.

 

So using the GFS ensemble mean we get something like

 

21st 13.8  (15.1)

22nd 13.7 (12.5)

23rd   13.7  (12.5)

24th 13.6  (11.5)

25th 13.5 (12)

26th  13.5 (12.5)

27th   13.5   (14)

28th 13.6  (15)

29th   13.6 (14.5)

30th   13.6  (14.5)

 

A touch warmer forecast than yesterday.  ECM is currently looking slightly colder than this. Still looks very likely we will be below all recent 30y averages.

[Stu_London]

13.7 to the 20th.

 

The GFS 06z would suggest an outcome at month end of 14.1C before adjustments (bang on 61-90 ave)

 

However, most of the warmer days are at the unreliable end of the period, so the risk to the downside of that figure is probably slightly greater than the upside.

 

With the fact that adjustments tend to be downward, I would say 75/25 in favour of being slightly lower than 14.1C

 

Edit: my prediction is based on operational, which might be warmer than the mean.

Edited June 21, 2013 by Stu_London

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll chime in with another prediction so!

 

Yesterday was 15.3C. The minimum today is 12.2C while maxima look like reaching close to 21C, so an increase to 13.8 or 13.9C is possible on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET near

 

13.8C to the 22nd (12.6)

13.8C to the 23rd (13.7)

13.7C to the 24th (11.8]

13.7C to the 25th (13.0)

13.7C to the 26th (15.0)

13.8C to the 27th (16.2)

14.0C to the 28th (17.5)

 

With the usual uncertainty and the fact that things could go either way in the final 2 days, anything between 14.5 and 13.5C before corrections is possible I think.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I'll chime in with another prediction so!

 

Yesterday was 15.3C. The minimum today is 12.2C while maxima look like reaching close to 21C, so an increase to 13.8 or 13.9C is possible on tomorrows update.

 

 

Seems I'm the low outlier. Will be interested to see how it turns out anyhow.

 

I would put my end of month range at the moment as 13.4 - 14.2.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems I'm the low outlier. Will be interested to see how it turns out anyhow.

 

I would put my end of month range at the moment as 13.4 - 14.2.

 

I'm sure the output will switch again soon and make fools of us all anyway!

[summer blizzard]

Up in the air from the 27th so far as i can see although there's still a 0.2C difference between you by then.

 

At any rate it looks certain that we will be lower than the 1981-2010 average and below the 1971-2000 average after adjustments.

[The PIT]

Some cool days shown by the GFS which should undo the last few days so my guess could well be to high. One the present runs I would guess around 13.6C

[Roger J Smith]

Would somebody mind starting the July thread with whatever CET info you can assemble, I am not at home where I store CET data sets and also have limited internet access. Will post my usual twaddle about various extremes and averages around the 25th maybe (on the thread I hope). 

 

I do recall that the long-term 354-year average for July is 16.0 if that helps (that was over many different climatic periods all of them unlike this sh*te of 2013). 

[DAVID SNOW]

13.9 to the 21st.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.9  (13.85)

 

Likely to come down to 13.8 tomorrow although it could also stay there. Current GFS ensembles would put my estimate for EOM higher now at around 13.9. Although I note if the ECM evolution for the 28- 30th is correct we would probably get a slightly lower value.

 

(my estimate for CET max yesterday was too low although with Lancashire sites reporting sub 18 max's 20.5 seems a little high to me will be interested in checking corrections at EOM).

Edited June 22, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minima today of 11C and maxima a little over 16C, we should drop bac to 13.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at:

 

13.8C to the 23rd (13.0)

13.7C to the 24th (12.1)

13.7C to the 25th (13.0)

13.7C to the 26th (14.4)

13.8C to the 27th (14.5)

13.9C to the 28th (18.8]

14.1C to the 29th (19.1)

 

[damianslaw]

A very near average month CET wise looks on the cards, with few warm or chilly extremes. A good chance it will be the 6th below average month in a row.

[DAVID SNOW]

Dont forget about the 0.4 downward correction come months end.

[The PIT]

Well temps hit 18.8C here yesterday suspect a few other place sin the CET zone would have gone a little higher. I'd expect it either staying the same or a slight rise today should push it down though.

Yesterday brought Sunny Sheffield up to 14.1C

[SomeLikeItHot]

Well temps hit 18.8C here yesterday suspect a few other place sin the CET zone would have gone a little higher. I'd expect it either staying the same or a slight rise today should push it down though.

Yesterday brought Sunny Sheffield up to 14.1C

 

From what I could see at the stations near the cet measuring sites it would be an average max of near 16, with a min of 11 which would bring it down to 13.8. but I've been wrong before so it may well stay at 13.9!

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.9 to the 22nd. 13.7 yesterday but not enough to bring it down.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS looks quite a bit cooler today, so probably a finish of under 14C before corrections based on that. The ECM this time appears much warmer, so probably a finish above 14C with that.

Still touch and go with whether we record yet another month below the 61-90 average, while below the 81-10 average is practically guaranteed.

[Methuselah]

14 sounds like a pretty reasonable guess, Sam...Have there been sufficient anomalously cold nights, that might force a significant downward adjustment?

[SomeLikeItHot]

The 06z GFS looks quite a bit cooler today, so probably a finish of under 14C before corrections based on that. The ECM this time appears much warmer, so probably a finish above 14C with that.

Still touch and go with whether we record yet another month below the 61-90 average, while below the 81-10 average is practically guaranteed.

 

The ECM 0z appears to be a warmer than the ensemble mean on the 28th-30th so it may be cooler than it is showing now.  I think after corrections below the 61-90 average is still most likely, but its probably only going to be 0.2 or so.

[Weather-history]

The last conclusively above average month, i.e. one that was above 1961-90, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 averages was August 2012!

I remember November 2003 to October 2005 on net.weather and the "when are we going to see a below average month?" question being asked.

[BornFromTheVoid]

14 sounds like a pretty reasonable guess, Sam...Have there been sufficient anomalously cold nights, that might force a significant downward adjustment?

 

It's hard to say. There were some adjustments made earlier in the month anyway, so perhaps not as big an adjustment to come at the end of this month?

If we do end up below average, it will be the first time we've had 3 consecutive below average Junes (based on 61-90 and 20th century average) since 1979-1981, the full streak then was from 1977-1981 (12.2C, 13.7C, 13.9C, 13.8C, and 13.2C respectively)

.

Edited June 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Philip Eden has us at 13.8c to the 23rd

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET is at 13.8C to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 13.4C. The minimum today is 9.9C while maxima look like reaching close to 17C, so likely remaining on 13.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET near

13.8C to the 25th (13.0)

13.8C to the 26th (13.9)

13.8C to the 27th (13.7)

13.9C to the 28th (17.4)

14.1C to the 29th (18.9)

14.2C to the 30th (18.5)

 

The 06z operational run would have us at 14.2, but very close to 14.3C by the end of the month. The chances of being below the 61-90 average after corrections is a little lower now, but probably still 65/35 in favour though

 

Anyone guessing between 13.8C and 14.3C has a good shot this month I think.