Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Coast]

and what's this in Jersey then?

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temps-reel.php

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Coast

[weatherobsuk]

Will there or won't there be storms tonight across the south? I would do anything to see an overnight lightning display, maybe even drive the 200 miles to the south coast. Now that the thunderstorms this week look unlikely to get as far north as me I may have to think about some driving again

 

I'm thinking along the same lines for tonight, however the beeb are increasingly showing more potential for the Midlands and Pennines with each forecast. Especially so from tomorrow morning right up into the early hours of Friday so i'm just sitting back and playing the waiting game for now, see how the CAPE looks like overnight and what crops up.

[Chris.R]

yes, same here Convective, at least the wind isn't coming off the bloody sea for me this week! give me NWerly's in the winter but SEasterly's in the summer for me please, that will do nicely.

[Harry]

Thanks, Coast!! Those charts look positively dreamy!!

 

What is NMM suggesting for precip??

[Convective]

yes, same here Convective, at least the wind isn't coming off the bloody sea for me this week! give me NWerly's in the winter but SEasterly's in the summer for me please, that will do nicely.

The wind blows in off the sea no matter which direction it comes from here! Freezing all the bloody time!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Coast, those charts are very promising... would help storms cross the channel too?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think tonight could be.. Epic.. Alnighter all out sorta thing... OR a let down and tomorrow and Wednesday are the dogs nuts!

[Eskimo]

I think the channel is too cold to support the life of thunderstorms crossing into Britain and the NMM shows this nicely. I think what we will see is home grown activity. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Got that thundery feeling today, even the excitement of expecting storms is good enough for me!

[Cloudwatcher]

Nothing doing for us over the next week. Back to  .......

[Ben Sainsbury]

If you compare the radar and the cape + Li charts the thunderstorms that are roaming about in France is only supported by 1000 cape and positive LI's?

[AWD]

Got that thundery feeling today, even the excitement of expecting storms is good enough for me!

Ian agrees mate, some possibilities for our area tonight;"W COUNTRY Potential for heavy thundery downpours to spread N from NW France later tonight into Tues AM. Warm & muggy tomorrow: 20-22C."Think it's going to be a late one tonight!

[Harry]

Curious to see how Estofex plays tomorrow's potential.... 

 

Hoping to see a nice Level 1 zone slapped across southern Britain

[Ben Sainsbury]

Curious to see how Estofex plays tomorrow's potential....

 

Hoping to see a nice Level 1 zone slapped across southern Britain

I'm going to bed, if we aren't issued a Level 1; I would have had enough of this nonsense.

[imriecm]

I haven't been on here since the last time we had some decent action down south, however I am rather addicted to watching the charts today, and I am glued to the latest rain radar returns.

 

Fingers crossed, and I hope the wind doesn't steer it off to far to the east as the MetO forecast seems to do.

[Evening thunder]

I think the channel is too cold to support the life of thunderstorms crossing into Britain and the NMM shows this nicely. I think what we will see is home grown activity. 

 

Surface based storms yeah, but the main threat for the UK tonight into tomorrow are mid-level based storms which are above the boundary layer fueled by the advection of a warmer moist air mass higher up than the surface, so the channel should not effect these hopefully (like the storms that hit the IOW and Falmouth areas early this month) Wednesday does look more like a home grown/surface based risk though.

[Tom Jarvis]

Just wondering if I should get excited about tonight's Potential

[Coast]

Just wondering if I should get excited about tonight's Potential

 

Go on, knock yourself out Tom! 

[liambailey09]

Cable release and tripod at the ready, some distant lightning would be a nice reward for finishing my A levels 

[Eskimo]

Cable release and tripod at the ready, some distant lightning would be a nice reward for finishing my A levels 

The only thing you'll be capturing is the chavs roaming the streets of Stevenage...i can say that, ive lived there! lol

[Chris.R]

yes Convective, I know, I feel for you I really do, I mean winters aren't as exciting for convective action anymore it seems, I remember thunder and large 2 CM hail here on christmas day 2004, now that was something, and I remember a thunderstorm with thunder-snow and hail sweeping down the Mersey on 22 Dec 2009, and those poler lows that used to come down the irish sea when I was little. those where good times. lets hope we get atleast a heavy shower from this upcoming spell.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Is it me or have the latest Cape and Li charts been higher than earlier?

[liambailey09]

The only thing you'll be capturing is the chavs roaming the streets of Stevenage...i can say that, ive lived there! lol

You're not wrong there! haha

[Bluebreezer54]

If the potential for midweek comes to fruition I may well be interested in a chase depending on the prospects. My starting point would obviously be my home location ( Nw London ), but I'm prepared to drive approx 100 miles in any direction.

[Keraunic]

Ipswich has nothing for today/tonight but may be some storm activity on Wednesday by the looks of it.

Hope all you guys down in the SE get some storms.