Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013

[Costa Del Fal]

What site is that on, Blizzards?

Search stourbridge on wunderground. Mine is reading 26.7c in the shade right now but did have a little sun on earlier so may a touch too high still.

[Captain Shortwave]

Probably Wunderground where stations are often overexposed to the sun.

could be possible, looking on weatheronline and the highest there is 25 at Heathrow

[Costa Del Fal]

Probably Wunderground where stations are often overexposed to the sun.

Yes some are but almost all stations are at least 24c and most in my locality at 25-26. We are frequently one of the warmest in this region.

[Scorcher]

Most of the stations around Birmingham are showing 23C though Blizzards, it's 24C in Cheltenham which is a good 45 mins south of you so I can't imagine it's any higher than that.

[Costa Del Fal]

could be possible, looking on weatheronline and the highest there is 25 at Heathrow

Heathrow isn't necessarily the god of high temps. All stations pretty much at least 24c here.

[Costa Del Fal]

Most of the stations around Birmingham are showing 23C though Blizzards, it's 24C in Cheltenham which is a good 45 mins south of you so I can't imagine it's any higher than that.

Malvern reporting 25c too. I'm in an urbanised area too. I suspect mine above is a little too warm but 24-25c I'm confident here especially when 80% stations here are showing that.

[Methuselah]

These temps are the very reason I don't expect any all-time records to the threatened, this year...In all the summers (that I can recall) where records have tumbled, the first day of a heatwave has reached 27C or more...

[Captain Shortwave]

Heathrow isn't necessarily the god of high temps. All stations pretty much at least 24c here.

Yeah but they are all official stations. Even though the website obviously only has a relative handful compared to the metoffice.

[CasMan]

These temps are the very reason I don't expect any all-time records to the threatened, this year...In all the summers (that I can recall) where records have tumbled, the first day of a heatwave has reached 27C or more...

Northolt on Weatheronline is reading 27C currently

[Captain Shortwave]

Northolt on Weatheronline is reading 27C currently

Indeed 

[Bluebreezer54]

Come on then, someone take a stab at when, where and maybe even if the 30°C mark will be breached?

 

 

I did a few pages back. Somewhere in Gloucestershire or Worcestershire 31c on Thursday. I have had a rethink since and I think it may now be Monday or Tuesday.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This hazy stuff appears to be high-level haze- there are some isolated patches of cumulus and stratocumulus here and it isn't particularly hazy between the surface and cloud level, but it certainly looks hazy above cloud level, a bit like the situations we sometimes had when the ash cloud came over in April/May 2010.

 

A pretty warm 23C here at the moment in inland North Yorkshire.

[Methuselah]

Northolt on Weatheronline is reading 27C currently

      

[Bottesford]

Seem to have maxed out at 22.7c so can't see the 24c prediction happening here now. Still not reached 25c yet this year!

[leehws]

Currently 18.4C here, with a sea breeze. Doesn't look like temperatures will top 20C here for the foreseeable future, which is quite unusual as we normally do pretty well here during settled spells...

[Bluebreezer54]

Northolt on Weatheronline is reading 27C currently

 

 

Very believable. The Met Office station there reported 25.2 at 3pm and 26.5 at 4pm.

[hillbilly]

max today 21 deg  third time this year....will I ever see 22 ???

[cheese]

24C here. Hazy and breezy. I expect higher tomorrow. 27C perhaps? I also note that Leeds has a forecast low of 17C and York 16C - the first 'warm' night of the year. Seems awfully high though given it's only 24C now, and we're usually cooler in the rural sticks anyway. 

Edited July 5, 2013 by cheese

[Cheese Rice]

Maxed out at 23.3c. 

 

Yorkshire and South East England look the hot-spot for tomorrow, really looking forward to some proper heat...

 

[garbagebags]

 

[Milhouse]

23.1 max here.

[Roger J Smith]

Today has been somewhat transitional and the full effects of the ridge building are not quite accomplished yet. At 12z the CMC analysis shows B'ham at 585 dm height (500-mb) and 561 dm thickness. By Monday the prog chart shows 595 dm height and 567 dm thickness. From then on, these values sag slightly but often when that's the case, the heat achieved is retained until a real change in air mass takes place.

 

Based on these numbers and today's actual values, I think that widespread 26-28 C would be likely over the weekend (inland) and 29-31 C on Monday, 28-30 C Tuesday to Friday and perhaps beyond.

 

Wind flow by the core of the hot spell will be almost featureless apart from local sea breezes across most of England and Wales, so that it would be reasonable to predict the highest temperatures in urban areas and slightly to their northwest as heated air is transported away from cities. My guess is that the highest temperature in the spell could be at Heathrow or Northolt, or possibly somewhere in the west Midlands or around Manchester even since there will be a slight compression effect of low-level southeast flow across the Peak District, and a weak sea breeze regime possibly not making it inland very far past about Wigan if even that far. And for a maximum value I will speculate 33.5 -- a scorching sun and low humidity can produce some fairly high readings, but to compare to past major heat waves, I seem to recall thicknesses above 570 dm in 2006 and even 2005, was not actively watching in 2003 but the charts look like 576 or above there. In a comparable climate zone of the central prairies of Canada a thickness of 582 dm is sometimes observed and highs would reach about 38 to 40 with that. In western Canada, thicknesses such as you're about to see next week would routinely bring 31-33 C max temps in the lower Fraser valley which has very similar means and extremes to southeast England. As long as there isn't much cloud around, I would be pretty confident that 30 will be the over/under mark on Monday for much of the inland portions and the sea breezes won't be very strong except perhaps in Wales and Cornwall.

[sn0wman]

 

Don't know why you're unhappy with our prospects. Looks like 25°C will be reached on Tuesday and it's likely the temperature will stay above 22°C for the remainder of the week. That seems like some brilliant weather (especially for Scotland!) to me. Bear in mind that the BBC and Met Office are usually conservative with their forecasts until a few days before the event. For example, the temperature in London is now forecast to reach 28°C on Sunday, compared to the 25°C forecast a couple of days ago. Bring on the heatwave! 

[Milhouse]

11th July 2005. 30c in Bournemouth.

 

[hillbilly]

  21 deg today at 5pm 3rd equal highest temp of 2013 ,just broke warmest temp of year so far at 8pm,yes 8pm 21.5deg!!!!!!!