Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013

[cheese]

^^ Scorchio!! Lol

 

Reached 24.2c at Church Fenton today.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just got over 20C today, so not too bad. 21C or 22C forecast for tomorrow and then mid 20s from Sunday on

[Scorcher]

Today has been somewhat transitional and the full effects of the ridge building are not quite accomplished yet. At 12z the CMC analysis shows B'ham at 585 dm height (500-mb) and 561 dm thickness. By Monday the prog chart shows 595 dm height and 567 dm thickness. From then on, these values sag slightly but often when that's the case, the heat achieved is retained until a real change in air mass takes place.

 

Based on these numbers and today's actual values, I think that widespread 26-28 C would be likely over the weekend (inland) and 29-31 C on Monday, 28-30 C Tuesday to Friday and perhaps beyond.

 

Wind flow by the core of the hot spell will be almost featureless apart from local sea breezes across most of England and Wales, so that it would be reasonable to predict the highest temperatures in urban areas and slightly to their northwest as heated air is transported away from cities. My guess is that the highest temperature in the spell could be at Heathrow or Northolt, or possibly somewhere in the west Midlands or around Manchester even since there will be a slight compression effect of low-level southeast flow across the Peak District, and a weak sea breeze regime possibly not making it inland very far past about Wigan if even that far. And for a maximum value I will speculate 33.5 -- a scorching sun and low humidity can produce some fairly high readings, but to compare to past major heat waves, I seem to recall thicknesses above 570 dm in 2006 and even 2005, was not actively watching in 2003 but the charts look like 576 or above there. In a comparable climate zone of the central prairies of Canada a thickness of 582 dm is sometimes observed and highs would reach about 38 to 40 with that. In western Canada, thicknesses such as you're about to see next week would routinely bring 31-33 C max temps in the lower Fraser valley which has very similar means and extremes to southeast England. As long as there isn't much cloud around, I would be pretty confident that 30 will be the over/under mark on Monday for much of the inland portions and the sea breezes won't be very strong except perhaps in Wales and Cornwall.

 

Brilliant post, very interesting and your knowledge of British geography is extremely impressive for someone who lives in Canada!

[Thundery wintry showers]

While the high doesn't look likely to pull much in the way of hot air off the continent, I'm not seeing much evidence on tonight's model outputs of the high repositioning to a spot which will bring in much in the way of cloud.  Most of us look set for a week of largely clear/sunny weather, though the north and west of Scotland is likely to be an exception.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[J10]

Quite a cloudy start here this morning but this cleared away quite quickly (especially between 9-10am), although it was hazy for a while with more in the way of proper sunshine late morning until around 4pm.

 

Before there was more high cloud pushing in from the South West, with a lot of milky skies and hazy sunshine, this cleared around 7pm to give a sunny end to the day.

 

Maximum local temps at Local Staiton 17.2c at Mumbles Head and 20.7c a bit further inland at Blackpill. A bit higher than forecast for here today.

 

Similar temps are forecast tomorrow with winds from a westerly orientation, mid 20s forecast for here on Sunday onwards as winds swing round more to an Easterly/NE, we shall see.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Jackone

[Geordiesnow]

Sunny start with patchy cloud around, then quite a thick area of milky high cloud came and parts of the early afternoon was quite cloudy with those milky skies above but over the course of the afternoon this cleared and left a sunny afternoon/evening although as others have noted alot of haze was in the skies. 

 

Its actually interesting that I looked on the cloud images earlier and the haze was well defined and there was an area of high cloud crossing Wales/Midlands and areas south of this high cloud did seem clearer than the areas to the North of it. Hopefully the haze can clear for tomorrow but I don't expect clear blue skies, especially in the evenings. 

[Bottesford]

Despite only a 22.7c max it feels like we've just had a proper hot day as this evening feels lovely - warm & humid.

So nice walking home with pleasant scents coming off various plants & trees with just the odd bbq on the air... Warm, still and especially humid weather is great at making the air smell nice. So much better than the only outdoor smells being takeaways & traffic!

Currently 19c - this is why I like humid weather - you don't need 30c in the day to actually enjoy a pleasant evening!

[Sprites]

Temps may max on Sunday at 29c, then 25-27c for the rest of the week, so not really a heatwave, but a nice warm spell..

[laserguy]

Despite only a 22.7c max it feels like we've just had a proper hot day as this evening feels lovely - warm & humid.

So nice walking home with pleasant scents coming off various plants & trees with just the odd bbq on the air... Warm, still and especially humid weather is great at making the air smell nice. So much better than the only outdoor smells being takeaways & traffic!

Currently 19c - this is why I like humid weather - you don't need 30c in the day to actually enjoy a pleasant evening!

 

Amazing how different we are! Today was pretty much unbearable at work - a true grimfest of intolerable heat. Got home at 1430 then spent the next four hours laying down in a darkened room. Went to the shop this evening, bathed in sweat,discomfort and retina-frazzling sunshine. Vegetation smelled unpleasantly strong and the less said about barbecues the better. Now for a night of fitful sleep courtesy of the heat,and I can look forward to being woken from that at some ungodly hour cos' of the damn sun blasting thru' my east-facing window. Then I'll do the whole sorry routine again.... for how long this evil weather is going to persist is anyone's guess. Autumn cannot come to the rescue quick enough.

[Bottesford]

Yes so very different that we are! At least you get your way the majority of the time - for me this kind of weather perfection is extremely brief and a decent length spell like this hasn't occurred in 7 years! 

Sorry you're not enjoying it but rest assured it won't last long... we're a cool, damp country so overall if you like damp & cool you'll end up the winner in the UK!

[Scorcher]

Funny how Britain seems to be like a magnet to the high pressure when looking at the models at the minute, almost the exact opposite of what has happened in previous summers- maybe its the heat lovers' turn to enjoy weeks and weeks on end of high pressure being stuck over the top of us!

[conor123]

23.1c the max today, VERY hazy this morning and evening, was decent through the afternoon though, hopefully blue skies tomorrow.

[Bluebreezer54]

Two things I find that work for me when trying to keep temperatures at a tolerable level in the home, and I say this as an ex shift worker. Blackout type blinds prevent a lot of the sunlight entering whatever room it is you want to keep cool.

 

If sleeping is a problem due to being too warm, if you have a duvet store it a cupboard somewhere for now and just use the cover. Give it a very light spray of water about half an hour before going to bed.

 

Sounds daft I know but it was a tip I was given when out in the tropics many years ago, and it is very effective.

[MP-R]

Anyone know why the sky was so hazy today?

Went to London on a work trip today. Noticeably warmer there than here in Brizzle, not that that is a problem for me... until I get on the Underground! What a horrible place to be even in just warm weather like today. I pity those who have to work in the city centre and use the tube all the time. When will London learn to get air conditioners on their underground trains.

Nevertheless, a gorgeous day and evening. Hopefully the sky will be a deep blue tomorrow rather than milky blue.

[Evening thunder]

Lovely day here yesterday, warmer than forecast reached 22.3C here and 23-24C in Exeter. Interesting that Bristol also had the haze, here it was a clear blue sky apart from some cirrus patches and a few bits of alto/cirrocumulus 

 

Quite cool last night here, a bit cloudy at first but that's already mostly burnt off and it's warming up. Tomorrow is when the real warmth/heat starts down here with a gentle ENE (offshore) breeze and 27C days forecast (can often be a degree or so higher than forecast too).

[Scorcher]

Much clearer with a deeper blue sky here this morning, great to see that the haze has gone and you can feel the full force of the sun.

[IanR]

I am only 16 miles from manc but there is some annoying high clouds around  that keep making the sun weak , it just vanished altogther for a short time..... I hope they bugger off

[Scorcher]

I'm to the east of Manchester Ian, in Denton so probably around 25 miles east of you. We tend to get less of an influence from the North Sea here than you do in Wigan.

[Bottesford]

Proper blue skies this morning and a warm start with 16c min and it 21.5c already at 0930. True UK heatwave feel to it this morning!

[Coast]

Already 23°C in Eastbourne, phew what a scorcher!

[Milhouse]

20.1c and climbing.

[leehws]

Temperature now leveled off at 19C with sea breeze now picking up..

Edited July 6, 2013 by leehws

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep it's deep blue sky here today too. We're good to go for 26-28c today!

[SteveB]

Local forecast last night had us down for low cloud this morning which they thought might not burn off until 10-11am. Thankfully nothing of the sort & we have clear blue skies and the temp is up to 17.6c

[Backtrack]

No haze today, brilliant!