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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Hah, would you believe it? Everything has transferred EAST.... AGAIN. All them charts show zilch for the far North West, let alone the Isle of Man.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

It still looks great for here. A bit earlier than previously thought but still great from what I can see.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Here's hoping for some good overnight storms for all, although in reality i'm still not enthusiastic just as yet especially with all this cloud lurking over us despite this same moisture content being initiated into the next week as the plume hits. Does anyone have any tips for night-lightning photography? I got a D3100 and haven't used it in these kinds of setups, i'm guessing a exposure time of a few seconds is better than just snapping away randomly on burst mode.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Was completely overcast and chilly a little earlier but now clear blue skies and temps rising. Getting some heat built up for a storm later hopefully.

 

Met Office map shows storms moving N developing into the Midlands tonight, chart for 4am

 

Posted Imageh3wh3333333.jpg

 

Not to forget the sun is coming up still in July at stupid'o'clock in the morning, it'll be hit and miss the further NE you are in terms of potential for some 'strobe effects' lightning. Still can't complain however as later on in the day it gives a better opportunity to see developing convective structure.

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nitro_deluxe Contributor

nitro_deluxe

Posted
Posted

am really begining to think that with all this cloud cover and low temps that any storms will die a death before they reach here

How can that be? We need moisture - cloud is moisture..everything is gradually falling into place.Agreed, some places may well escape the worst, others may well be thankful of the fact! As is always the case when potentially severe thunderstorms are being mentioned in several forecasts. Always hit and miss in terms of intensity etc.
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rich1974 Apprentice

rich1974

Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
Posted

I don't know,the sun is out here in Berkshire now and it's starting to warm up some what, unless you meant where you are.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Don't forget that the plume of warm and humid air hasn't really arrived yet.

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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted

Here's hoping for some good overnight storms for all, although in reality i'm still not enthusiastic just as yet especially with all this cloud lurking over us despite this same moisture content being initiated into the next week as the plume hits. Does anyone have any tips for night-lightning photography? I got a D3100 and haven't used it in these kinds of setups, i'm guessing a exposure time of a few seconds is better than just snapping away randomly on burst mode.

Hey there fingers crossed for a storm, it does look promising over the next couple of days. I would recommend you set the camera up on a tripod facing the storm. When trying to capture lightning i would set the exposure time over 5+ seconds, but the more the better really. Then just pray you press the button in time lol, but be warned i have wasted many good storms staring at the camera screen and not enjoying the storm with my own eyes only to end up with maybe one or two good snaps. The easiest way to get lightning pictures is the film it with a camera on a steady tripod at 30fps (or more) with any auto focusing switched off. Then you can enjoy watching the lightning display, After the storm go back through the video footage and recover the frames. I have hundreds of pictures from filming as apposed to a handful of photographed ones. Hope this was helpful

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

I don't know,the sun is out here in Berkshire now and it's starting to warm up some what, unless you meant where you are.

Its really dull and overcast up here at the moment. comfortable is a good term for it today.

Edited by paul m
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

am really begining to think that with all this cloud cover and low temps that any storms will die a death before they reach here

 

But storms aren't necessairly driven by what the temperatures are at the surface, often you get elevated storms above a stable and cool surface/boundary layer, the storms driven by warm/moist layers aloft becoming unstable. Tonight we see a plume of warm moist air advect north which looks to become unstable aloft initially - bringing north a risk of elevated storms.

 

So you could even have the cool conditions with low cloud off the North Sea at the surface while an elevated storm moves above as warm moist air surges north - seen that happen a few times, 9th May 2001 across the SE a prime example.

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rich1974 Apprentice

rich1974

Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
Posted

And remember we get thunder storms when it snows, ok not large ones but it's not warm and sunny at the time they happen.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Exactly Nick.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Could be a bit of a light show for some tonight. Even isolated storms, because of their high based nature, would be able to be seen from 50 miles + away.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Hey there fingers crossed for a storm, it does look promising over the next couple of days. I would recommend you set the camera up on a tripod facing the storm. When trying to capture lightning i would set the exposure time over 5+ seconds, but the more the better really. Then just pray you press the button in time lol, but be warned i have wasted many good storms staring at the camera screen and not enjoying the storm with my own eyes only to end up with maybe one or two good snaps. The easiest way to get lightning pictures is the film it with a camera on a steady tripod at 30fps (or more) with any auto focusing switched off. Then you can enjoy watching the lightning display, After the storm go back through the video footage and recover the frames. I have hundreds of pictures from filming as apposed to a handful of photographed ones. Hope this was helpful

 

Sounds like a plan and with the addition of being able to film HD on the D3100 the video option does seem the better in terms of being able to setup the shot with more chance of capturing something. Now all I have to do is sit back and keep my eyes southeastwards.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Sounds like a plan and with the addition of being able to film HD on the D3100 the video option does seem the better in terms of being able to setup the shot with more chance of capturing something. Now all I have to do is sit back and keep my eyes southeastwards.

 

It's a shame I'm working tomorrow. I think some lightning should be visible if something kicks off Midlands way before sunrise.

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nitro_deluxe Contributor

nitro_deluxe

Posted
Posted (edited)

Exactly Nick.

Any interaction of air-masses usually brings with it muck..and occasionally bullets! Things will fire off accordingly, the humdingers shall arrive - heard a good while ago now, that temps circa or above 28C can bring with them the more severe kinda storms. A benchmark between, not bad to holy moly :) I.e, juicy moist air with bags more potential.. Edited by triple_x1
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Wet'n'Dry Enthusiast

Wet'n'Dry

Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon
Posted

Hi all, clear skies here with a wisp of cirrus, temps climbing in the last 2 hours from 24° to 26°, humidity currently at 61%

 

Gotta say I hate all this waiting, if only I had a Tardis Posted Image

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Humidity is definitely on the increase. It felt quite cool an hour or two ago. Despite the temperature not rising much, the closeness has increased somewhat. It's starting :D

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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted

Sounds like a plan and with the addition of being able to film HD on the D3100 the video option does seem the better in terms of being able to setup the shot with more chance of capturing something. Now all I have to do is sit back and keep my eyes southeastwards.

Video is a great option just make sure auto focus settings are off as it struggles with lightning, although that could just be my cheap camera. Best part is you can re-watch it on a day when your feeling really storm deprived lol!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Hopefully in 12 hours time things will be kicking off

 

I might stay up until 3-4am to monitor potential developments. I'll just have a tired day at work.

 

The things us weather nutters would do eh?! Run myself ragged back in winter and spring during those cold spells. Used to wait up for the 0z GFS!

Edited by CreweCold
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