Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Damone]

I've been through one significant storm this year, and I'm hoping that glob of red doesn't hit Falmouth this morning. If it does and I make it out (without losing my mind completely), I'll post about it.

 

*Blows the glob in another direction*

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

00z looking like a better run than last night. All depends on how far cut off that low gets. Ideally, we want it removed from the jet as much as possible. I guess time will tell though!

[Weather-history]

Here's a heatwave that went bang. Maybe for this week?

The 1st August 1999 was a scorcher with temperatures as high as 32.7C at Heathrow Airport. For western areas and parts of the Midlands, it went bang in the afternoon as thunderstorms developed. I remember it being hot sunny morning into early afternoon here. Clouds were developing to the west. By mid afternoon, there was a wall of cloud to the west and the radio was crackling away. By late afternoon, a storm struck and temperatures dropped by about 10C

[Supacell]

The way I am reading things is that the main thrust of thunderstorms have been brought forward slightly with the main risk for me now moving from Tuesday/Wednesday to Monday/Tuesday. By Wednesday it will be areas in the north and east most at risk.

 

BBC forecasting 34c around London tomorrow, that will feel rather warm 

 

Another thing of note is the want for the weather to turn that bit cooler but not cool as temperatures still remain in the 23-27c range and the risk of further thunderstorms throughout the week even after the "main event" with Friday and the weekend looking good for widespread storms.

 

Next week could redeem the very poor start to the 2013 storm season.

[VillagePlank]

BBC Weather (BBC 1) just forecast 34C for SE!

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like the risk is further east for storms, central southern England likely to see the best action

[A.J]

nice cluster of thunderstorms heading for the extreme SWern tip of Cornwall. Very electrically active.......elevated though I would imagine, so sheet lightning more likely as opposed to fork lightning

[Harry]

00z looking like a better run than last night. All depends on how far cut off that low gets. Ideally, we want it removed from the jet as much as possible. I guess time will tell though!

Why do you want it to detach from the jet? The jet stream is a fantastic trigger and organising mechanism for storms. You are very unlikely to develop severe storms/super cells without it. More of the jet would IMO increase people's chances of storms rather than hinder

[Harry]

Here's a heatwave that went bang. Maybe for this week?The 1st August 1999 was a scorcher with temperatures as high as 32.7C at Heathrow Airport. For western areas and parts of the Midlands, it went bang in the afternoon as thunderstorms developed. I remember it being hot sunny morning into early afternoon here. Clouds were developing to the west. By mid afternoon, there was a wall of cloud to the west and the radio was crackling away. By late afternoon, a storm struck and temperatures dropped by about 10C

I may be mis-remembering, but it was in August 1999 (perhaps this weather event) we had one of the most phenomenal (and petrifying) MCS events across the SE (I was only 11 so the detail and the expanse of the event geographically I cannot recall). It went on for hours and the thunder was incredible...lightning was frequent and the CGs plentiful....that would be good in the next few days

[nanu]

Big cell just to the left of ireland thats flashing away

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/satellite_UK_and_Ireland

[Southern Storm]

Hi all does anyone know when Estofex issue forecasts? BBC graphics show some storms breaking out over the south tonight

But I have more faith in Estofex! Yesterdays forecast was spot on!

Edited July 21, 2013 by thunderman24

[Nick F]

A few elevated storms clipping Cornwall today, otherwise all eyes on tonight and Monday morning. It appears that a trough, currently over Wern France, and the nose of an 18C+ theta-w plume will slowly drift north into southern England in the early hours of Monday morning. The upper flow is fairly weak (from the south) - so vertical shear will be weak (DLS below 20 knts) - but it looks like elevated storms will erupt along this nose of warm/moist air moving north across southern/central England and Wales tomorrow. I don't think storms will organise into an MCS given weak shear, rather storms will be scattered and elevated, which are indicated to drift north across central S England and into the Midlands tomorrow morning.

 

As always, the models never handle well spatial development of storms in plumes, so may see the the western extent of the storms bordering into SW England and Wales and the eastern extent perhaps across the parts of SE England too. It'll be a case of watching developments on the radar tonight to get an accurate picture of where these storms will drift.

 

Then on Tuesday, upper trough/low in the Atlantic will move in closer to the W and SW of Ireland, so the upper flow will strengthen from the south and so will vertical shear, one or two shortwave troughs in this strengthening upper flow will move north across the UK where we will have a hot and humid plume in place, so storms are likely from the word go, perhaps an overnight MCS drifting north. Cold front looks to enter from the SW later on Tuesday, with dry air entrained aloft so this may result in more organised storms developing Tuesday PM - perhaps producing some severe weather in places. 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Nick F

[Darren Bown]

Hi all does anyone know when Estofex issue forecasts? BBC graphics show some storms breaking out over the south tonight But I have more faith in Estofex! Yesterdays forecast was spot on!

Usually first thing AM, but at times it's not until later in morning early afternoon depending on who's available to forecast.

[The PIT]

Plenty of cool air over the north of the uk so any storms that manage to break out over the south will quickly fizzle out when they move north today. Going to be interesting how things develop over the next few days but I wouldn't be surprised if everything was shifted a lot further south.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Plenty of cool air over the north of the uk so any storms that manage to break out over the south will quickly fizzle out when they move north today. Going to be interesting how things develop over the next few days but I wouldn't be surprised if everything was shifted a lot further south.

I wouldn't mind that thanks. It is not even exactly cool air still reaching low 20's in places so storms would continue but maybe weak a little?

Edited July 21, 2013 by interestingweather

[Ben Sainsbury]

0Z:

 

 

 

 

6Z:

[Nick F]

Remember. it's not really until early Monday onwards that the risk of storms begins - as we see a plume of very warm and moist air advect north across England and Wales from France.

 

 

Storms tend to occur near the 'axis' of plumes advecting north, so for now we are looking at central S England, The Midlands and N England tomorrow for scattered and mainly elevated storms drifting north through the morning and afternoon - though this may shift east or west to affect SW England/Wales or more SE England/E Anglia. IMO these storms maybe hit and miss given likely scattered nature, so some places may stay dry while down the road gets a torrential downpour. Although unlikely to be severe, given lack of vertical shear tomorrow, they could be quite electrically active.

 

It's really Monday night/ Tuesday morning onwards that we start to see a more organised risk of severe weather, as southerly upper winds strengthen and surface winds back more as the trough approaches from the west - which will increase vertical shear. Possible MCS Tuesday morning clearing north, then, if the detritus clears quick enough and the sun gets to work, home-grown storms possible in the hot/humid airmas, some of which could be severe, helped by one or two shortwave troughs moving north and falling heights from the west. A cold front moves in from the W/SW too, so storms merging along this to form a long squall line. There is some uncertainty over how quickly this front moves in and interacts with the plume. 00z GFS most progressive 06z a little less so and more in line with ECM which has the cold front clear E England Tuesday night/Weds morning.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Nick F

[Bobby]

For the SW things don't look anywhere near as good as they did the other day. Originally the low was forecast to be more to our SW/SSW moving NE/N giving a better angle of attack. Now it's modeled more out to the West and drifting E. Probably not as good overall for most areas in fact. Monday's storms look they may initially first start further south but properly develop further N into Central/Northern areas of England.

 

SW England/S England doesn't look too good on Monday

 

 

Tuesdays storms have more or less vanished from the models for here, again further E/NE.

 

 

Still surprises possibly but meh, been so long since a proper summer thunderstorm and latest charts have me grumpy now.

 

Somewhere will get some good storms though I'm sure, the hotspot at the moment I'd say is Central/Eastern England, N England too. So enjoy.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Bobby

[lewisosd]

Would someone please enlighten me on the risk in east Anglia over the next coming days

[Ben Sainsbury]

Would someone please enlighten me on the risk in east Anglia over the next coming days

Great.

[Darren Bown]

To me, storms are a dead cert for somewhere in the UK. But as always with these set ups, exact locations won't be known until the actual day itself. It's all going to be eyes on radar the next few days!

[Bobby]

ECM looks good for Central areas and N England on Monday

 

Then some epic looking storms for the East on Tuesday afternoon

 

Monday afternoon  Tuesday afternoon

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

To me, storms are a dead cert for somewhere in the UK. But as always with these set ups, exact locations won't be known until the actual day itself. It's all going to be eyes on radar the next few days!

Well, there's one thing of which we can be certain: some folks will be moaning, come Friday!

[AWD]

ECM looks good for Central areas and N England on Monday

Then some epic looking storms for the East on Tuesday afternoon

Monday afternoon tui3y8.jpg Tuesday afternoon g3u89.jpg

Sorry, I don't know where those charts can be found. What do they show for Tuesday morning as the Iceland EC Det PPN charts show something rapidly developing over central Southern England during Tuesday morning;

[Staffordshire]

Well, there's one thing of which we can be certain: some folks will be moaning, come Friday!

i have already given up hope haha, happened too many times now so i didnt really get too excited to begin with