Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Andy Pepler]

Apologies if this is a little IMBY, but I'm really starting to get turned on with what I'm seeing potentially on Tuesday. This is up there with some of the best potential I've seen modelled in recent years.

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My city, unusually, is right in the mix of it all too. I can't contain myself any longer!!!!!

wowzers does that mean this year maybe this year we are going to get someting thats not a flash in the pan so to speek..

[Adi F]

I have not seen charts like that for a long time. 

[AWD]

wowzers does that mean this year maybe this year we are going to get someting thats not a flash in the pan so to speek..

It's hard not to get excited and "ramp" up the potential but the cynical, experienced side of me is reminding me of all the let downs we've had in the past years and to remember the difficulty of forecasting convective weather.It has however, been relatively consistently modelled so far so fingers crossed.

[Evening thunder]

Not often you see the a Met Office forecast with the words 'frequent thunderstorms'

 

SW England 3-5 day forecast:

'Sunny spells but also a risk of an isolated thunderstorm. Turning hotter and more humid with more frequent thunderstorms or outbreaks of thundery rain possible on Tuesday.'

 

One can hope

Edited July 20, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Chris.R]

Wow well I sure remember the MCS of the night of the 3rd of July 2001. Although I was only 6 at the time, I remember it clearly. It was that storm that first sparked (lol) my enthusiasm for storms. I remember the lightning getting brighter, and then great clear forks shooting down lighting up everything, and the thunder constant and coming from all directions at once. I can say for certain that I have not seen a storm that has come close to it since then. I've just looked at the CAPE and LI figures for my area next week and I am just blown away. Monday afternoon, a max CAPE of 1500 J/kG and LI of -4, and then on tuesday afternoon, a LI of -7 with CAPE of 2700!!! OMG! It looks as if there could be some monsters of home grown storms looking at that, not to mention the MCS risk over night. Very very exciting times. :-)

[Ben Sainsbury]

By the looks of things met office also going for something tomorrow;

 

Met Office Sunday Southwest: Any early cloud should rapidly break and thin to allow long sunny spells to develop, although with a risk on an isolated thunderstorm. Very warm or hot with light winds.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Wow well I sure remember the MCS of the night of the 3rd of July 2001. Although I was only 6 at the time, I remember it clearly. It was that storm that first sparked (lol) my enthusiasm for storms. I remember the lightning getting brighter, and then great clear forks shooting down lighting up everything, and the thunder constant and coming from all directions at once. I can say for certain that I have not seen a storm that has come close to it since then. I've just looked at the CAPE and LI figures for my area next week and I am just blown away. Monday afternoon, a max CAPE of 1500 J/kG and LI of -4, and then on tuesday afternoon, a LI of -7 with CAPE of 2700!!! OMG! It looks as if there could be some monsters of home grown storms looking at that, not to mention the MCS risk over night. Very very exciting times. :-)

 

Definate re-run of the mega thunderstorms of July 2001 if this comes off.

[Wilxy]

By the looks of things met office also going for something tomorrow;

 

Met Office Sunday Southwest: Any early cloud should rapidly break and thin to allow long sunny spells to develop, although with a risk on an isolated thunderstorm. Very warm or hot with light winds.

 

As long as a storm kicks off after 6pm its fine, would like it to stay dry and sunny as im off to the air tattoo tomorrow!

[Chris.R]

Well then that would just be incredible'! I'm just thinking, there must be people yunger than me who have never been through am MCS like that, so that will be something new for them. It will sure restore my love for the uk weather and well, all I can say is that it looks like I won't be sleeping much next week!

[Darren Bown]

Everything certainly seems to be pointing to something juicy over possibly multiple days. Can't remember any such set up over the last 5 or 6 years at least.

[Bobby]

ECM seems it wants to develop a MCS on Monday afternoon. Storms initially breaking out around noon across Wales and then developing into a MCS as they move NE through the Midlands. The shield of high level cloud surrounding the storms is a MCS giveaway

 

2pm then 6pm

 

 

 

Up to 44mm forecast for Colywn Bay in 6 hours under them storms.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Wales/Colwyn_Bay/

Edited July 20, 2013 by Bobby

[Mark.C]

Charts looking great for storm potential, and could even upgrade on the next runs, ha! imagine that!

[Evening thunder]

Hmm don't really like the ECM and UKMO they seem to have the heat and storms further east by Tuesday :/

[Methuselah]

Hmm don't really like the ECM and UKMO they seem to have the heat and storms further east by Tuesday :/

Sounds good!  

[Chris.R]

I've got my tent out in the garden and i'll be sleeping in it. I want to be out in it when it happens, what ever happenes.

[Southern Storm]

Hi guys I decided to join this forum after many interesting reads, hoping for some thunderstorms here in Exeter over the forthcoming days, this website is showing a 77% chance which looks promising so fingers crossed

welcome, you couldn't have chosen a better forum to join!

 

and good luck to everyone over the coming days, could we finally be about to break curse?

[Bluebreezer54]

Perhaps it's something for a seperate topic ( up to the mods ), but is anyone else thinking of a storm chase in the next few days ?

[AWD]

The high Res NMM model has storms breaking out over southern England and Wales on Monday, although scattered in nature;

With something more organised in the SE late Monnday night;

This is what caught my attention however for Tuesday, a whole rash of thunderstorm development coming up from Western France, associated with high CAPE Values too;

That and the Met Office update makes me think Tuesday could be the pinnacle of this potentially fantastic weekweek to come.

[Evening thunder]

Sounds good!  

 

Umm not if you live west of a line from Southampton to the pennines!   not just about the east ya know! 

 

(Looking at the ECM precip charts you can find on Weather Underground under Model data).

 

And unlike the GFS the only thing anything after Wednesday is good for, is the near continent and perhaps east Kent.. zzz.

 

Edit infact the GFS looks better for eastern areas too by Wednesday so it dosn't sound that good lol

Edited July 20, 2013 by Stormmad26

[sn0wman]

Best thunderstorm potential in years for many areas it seems. Not sure if Scotland is going to catch any storms, hopefully a mega MCS will move far enough north to affect us! 

[AWD]

Perhaps it's something for a seperate topic ( up to the mods ), but is anyone else thinking of a storm chase in the next few days ?

I'm hoping I won't need too chase as they might come to me but I'm filling my car up and have the time to go anywhere within a 30 - 40 mile radius of Bristol if I really need to.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Umm not if you live west of a line from Southampton to the pennines!   not just about the east ya know! 

 

(Looking at the ECM precip charts you can find on Weather Underground under Model data).

 

And unlike the GFS the only thing anything after Wednesday is good for, is the near continent and perhaps east Kent.. zzz.

 

Hmmm yes, not really inspired looking at the latest UKMO, ECM and GEM charts. Looks like a bit of an easterly bias is starting to creep in. If this goes bust I swear to God i'll be the most pxxxed off I've ever been.

[Wilxy]

I'm hoping I won't need too chase as they might come to me but I'm filling my car up and have the time to go anywhere within a 30 - 40 mile radius of Bristol if I really need to.

 

That's my plan aswel, as long as the current potential sticks.

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm hoping I won't need too chase as they might come to me but I'm filling my car up and have the time to go anywhere within a 30 - 40 mile radius of Bristol if I really need to.

I'm just worried that the risk will move away from Bristol. I would drive but I'm only 14 so if the risk does move I might have to persuade my dad to go storm chasing with me!

[Evening thunder]

Hmmm yes, not really inspired looking at the latest UKMO, ECM and GEM charts. Looks like a bit of an easterly bias is starting to creep in. If this goes bust I swear to God i'll be the most pxxxed off I've ever been.

 

Hmm what's the betting that a county beginning with L ends up with the best of any homegrowns.. lol

 

It seems the GFS and higher res models based on it give us all the eye candy charts, but don't show us what most of the other models are showing.

I hope the models trend towards the GFS but that doesn't seem too likely IMO given it's the GFS against the rest.. Of course there will still be storm chances with the ECM etc, just probably not so good and I must admit I'd be a little disappointed if it ends up less good and in the east..

 

The Met Office forecast gives me hope though (but this was written before tonight's 12z models came out).

Edited July 20, 2013 by Stormmad26