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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

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Buckster Enthusiast

Buckster

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

looking at charts this lunch - would I be right in thinking end of next week looks not as hot as predicted as yesterday - and storm potential looks lower ?

 

but end of this weekend conversely is looking more promising

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Indeed we must be cautious about reading too much into the models at the moment, particularly more than 5-7 days in advance.

The pattern is suggesting somewhat of a breakdown towards the end of the next week, with charts flitting between an explosive thundery breakdown and a meek, meh! of a breakdown - that's if a breakdown even occurs!

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Indeed we must be cautious about reading too much into the models at the moment, particularly more than 5-7 days in advance.The pattern is suggesting somewhat of a breakdown towards the end of the next week, with charts flitting between an explosive thundery breakdown and a meek, meh! of a breakdown - that's if a breakdown even occurs!

Your right there but it doesn't help when we have BBC/Met Office personnel on twitter talking about "MCS possibilities" etc.Can't help but get a little eager already.
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Your right there but it doesn't help when we have BBC/Met Office personnel on twitter talking about "MCS possibilities" etc.Can't help but get a little eager already.

There were MCS possibilities 3-4 weeks ago and nothing materialised. 

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Some good convection formed around lunch time here in South Wales, just north of Bridgend, before dying away.

post-3631-0-31494500-1374182090_thumb.jp

post-3631-0-80802500-1374182143_thumb.jp

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

I reckon we definitely will see something like we saw pre 2006 happen next week. Temperatures for a start will support big, big storms. The main thing is however, the jet stream is not present near the UK, so therefore not promoting anywhere near as much Eastward shift, which has been the scupper for good storms in the last 6-7 years. Steering winds look to be of the S/SSE/SE, so very much continental influenced which means absolutely no watering down from the Atlantic. 

It will be interesting this one !

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Am I right in saying sea temperatures across the south and southwest are above average at the moment because of the warmer weather? If so this will help any imports from the south to survive across the waters

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Not really a lot of CAPE on show from the GFS tonight. 

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted (edited)

Am I right in saying sea temperatures across the south and southwest are above average at the moment because of the warmer weather? If so this will help any imports from the south to survive across the waters

 

 

Generally if we do get an MCS, it will probably engulf Northern France/Southern England at the same time.  It would cross over very slowly but would likely stay strong as an MCS supports itself. The last one I saw was that I noticed was the one going into BENELUX in May 2009.  That was massive.   European MCS storms can grow to 3,500 square miles. 26th May 2009 I think it was.

 

I suspect in the case of next week, 

 

Classic Bay of Biscay Low...

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

 

 

This on next week's GFS high res could be convective in nature, that's a lot of precipitation and probably one of the more informed guys could tell you..  All eyes on Bay Of Biscay next week, lets see if it can perform. I'm going for a Wednesday evening storm, running into Thursday Morning.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

BBC forecast map showing MCS moving up Tuesday night clobbering the South East, East Anglia. Central S England and East Midlands will probably cop for it too. 

EDIT: More like the whole UK :O everywhere up to Tyneside will be kept awake by the looks of it!!!

Things looking very interesting as it stands Posted Image

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Beeb are keen on showing Cumbria having a storm or two by this evening which runs-parallel with the GFS output, I personally feel there's just a slight chance something may crop up around Cheshire given this will be the hottest part of England today aswell as the close proximity of moisture off the Irish Sea combined with lift from the Pennines.

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JRMcLeod Rookie

JRMcLeod

Posted
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
Posted

BBC forecast map showing MCS moving up Tuesday night clobbering the South East, East Anglia. Central S England and East Midlands will probably cop for it too. 

EDIT: More like the whole UK Posted Image everywhere up to Tyneside will be kept awake by the looks of it!!!

Things looking very interesting as it stands Posted Image

 Can i remind you that the "whole of the UK" doesnt extend from Tyneside south.  Almost half of the UK is north of here!!!

 

Back on topic.  I can see good storm potential for next week but as per the normal, the north misses out and instead i get to read all the southeners posts on how fantastic it is!!! Posted Image

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Well this is just getting stupid now, 27.9°C here now, would not be surprised if something kicked off around here later aided perhaps by wind convergence and the heat. About the heat, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 30 C later either so lets see what could happen.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Monday evening could go bang ?post-3297-0-37188700-1374231777_thumb.jp

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

 Can i remind you that the "whole of the UK" doesnt extend from Tyneside south.  Almost half of the UK is north of here!!!

 

Back on topic.  I can see good storm potential for next week but as per the normal, the north misses out and instead i get to read all the southeners posts on how fantastic it is!!! Posted Image

The way you Scots are going, Scotland won't be in the UK by next year  Posted Image Posted Image

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JRMcLeod Rookie

JRMcLeod

Posted
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
Posted

The way you Scots are going, Scotland won't be in the UK by next year  Posted Image Posted Image

 

Yippee, but that conversation is for another day.

 

Looking good for NW England.  Sat24 is showing signs of some pretty quick cloud growth. 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

BBC forecast map showing MCS moving up Tuesday night clobbering the South East, East Anglia. Central S England and East Midlands will probably cop for it too. 

EDIT: More like the whole UK Posted Image everywhere up to Tyneside will be kept awake by the looks of it!!!

Things looking very interesting as it stands Posted Image

Oopsie, the whole of England then! You never know though mate, you may get some home grown stuff up there.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Boooo shame it looks like back to 19c / 20c from midweek next week.

 

Was starting to enjoy the sun..

 

Hopefully we will see a lot of storms on the breakdown. It does indeed look like a wet one for most so who knows!

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Just spiiting with rain here and has a stormy feel in the air...PLEEEEASE

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