Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Supacell]

GFS 00z shows thunderstorms developing quite widely across southern and central Britain as early as Monday afternoon then keeps them coming throughout the week with the threat moving ever northward.

 

Three possible plumes - Monday, Tuesday and Friday with all these starting life down south and expanding north and east through the day and into the night. This week could offer some great opportunities for overnight lightning shows, and many people will get to see it because sleeping will be so difficult it may not be worth trying what with uncomfortable humidity and heat plus lots of noise from above

Edited July 20, 2013 by Supacell

[dave48]

Looking forward to this, a good week on the way for storm lovers, will be some crackers around.

[Supacell]

Looking forward to this, a good week on the way for storm lovers, will be some crackers around.

 

This year has been the poorest start to any storm season since i started chasing in 2004. I am hoping next week can redeem 2013.

[Bobby]

ECM goes for the first storms firing up early hours of Monday morning across the SW, then up through Wales and parts of the Midlands

 

6am Monday

 

 

Then some really big storms rapidly developing during Monday afternoon feeding off the high CAPE

 

 

NMM looks tasty too, widespread stormy looking weather

 

 

[TropicThunder]

I'm getting really excited about next week, we have waited far too long for a proper plume like we used to get, I just hope this doesn't turn into another false dawn.

 

It would be nice to think with this summer we are seeing another shift in climate pattern, hopefully returning to the summers of old with a build up of heat followed by some epic storms! More likely to be a one off though so if this comes off make the most of it. 

[Polar Maritime]

Hopefully this wont happen again...

 

[Bobby]

Hopefully this wont happen again...

 

 

Probably darn will, at least here, last summer storm here was sometime in the Bronze Age I think.

 

The high-res NASA model looks tasty for Tuesday

 

 

Edited July 20, 2013 by Bobby

[Tom Jarvis]

Probably darn will, at least here, last summer storm here was sometime in the Bronze Age I think.

The high-res NASA model looks tasty for Tuesday

Only for the places that have had storms over the last few years in my area there hasn't been a good storm for at least 3 years. I'm just worried that it will happen again and that the places to the west and north will get the good stuff whilst were left watching the radar like last year

[Ben Sainsbury]

Probably darn will, at least here, last summer storm here was sometime in the Bronze Age I think.

 

The high-res NASA model looks tasty for Tuesday

 

 

Bang on Bristol I'm just worried i'll get too excited.

[Supacell]

I have this feeling of excitement for next week coupled with a feeling of "too good to be true". I think the let-downs of recent years are putting that little bit of doubt into me, but there is no denying the excellent potential for next week with multiple opportunities across large portions of the UK to get some absolute crackers.

[Paul Sherman]

Probably darn will, at least here, last summer storm here was sometime in the Bronze Age I think.

 

The high-res NASA model looks tasty for Tuesday

 

 

 

Hahaha

 

I made that Youtube Clip with John Hanrahan, never knew it was still on the web - Great Stuff

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I have this feeling of excitement for next week coupled with a feeling of "too good to be true". I think the let-downs of recent years are putting that little bit of doubt into me, but there is no denying the excellent potential for next week with multiple opportunities across large portions of the UK to get some absolute crackers.

Indeed, this is it, sort of feels like a 'now or never' scenario as we haven't seen this setup in so long! I'm sure many people will be peeing their pants when we see a huge MCS give an all night show, as regular people will have forgotten what a fantastic all night show looks like by now! Tuesday night is looking very promising indeed, as well as possibly Monday and Friday, although Friday is some way out.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Wow these charts for Tuesday evening!

[storm1080]

Latest GFS has the low heading on a more ESE track as well..tues evening for us Central Southerners looks interesting

[nitro_deluxe]

Bring it on - those charts do indeed look rather tasty...considering the heat and humidity is set to peak, just prior to their arrival.

All eyes from now as this and any reports threads are slowly getting primed, for some long awaited action

[Jax]

BBC weather this morning also talking  of this "event", rising humidity and heat giving good chances of a stormy period early next week.

[Emz by the Thames]

Met Office have just issued a weather warning for thundery rain for almost all of England and Wales (except northernmost counties of England) on Tues/Weds.

 

Update likely to be updated to be more specific in terms of areas most at risk in the coming days.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Team Squirrel

[AWD]

Met Office have just issued a weather warning for thundery rain for almost all of England and Wales (except northernmost counties of England) on Tues/Weds.Update likely to be updated to be more specific in terms of areas most at risk in the coming days.

Indeed. Here is their summary of events copied from the warning;"An area of low pressure is expected to increasingly interact with the plume of hot, humid air resident across parts of southern Britain. Whilst preceding days will have seen only isolated thunderstorms, the developing set-up on Tuesday and Wednesday, provides the ingredients for more widespread and energetic storms. Large rainfall totals, falling in short periods and onto hard-baked ground, may lead to flooding locally, with hail a possibility."Seems a lot of us could be doing an all nighter on Tuesday night then so with that in mind, I'm now on leave on Wednesday!

[Ben Sainsbury]

It will be interesting to see what estofex will throw at us!

[Costa Del Fal]

Early next week looks very similar to the 28th July 2008 storms which brought a rash of severe storms from the West Country into the West Midlands. Here looks a prime region for some home grown juicyness!!!

[nitro_deluxe]

Level 3 would be erm interesting a 2 perhaps more realistic? But still very enticing

It will be interesting to see what estofex will throw at us!

It will be interesting to see what estofex will throw at us!

Early next week looks very similar to the 28th July 2008 storms which brought a rash of severe storms from the West Country into the West Midlands. Here looks a prime region for some home grown juicyness!!!

Lol we have discovered a new convective term/abbreviation! HGJs - home grown juiciness :)Sorry...do go on..

[Costa Del Fal]

Level 3 would be erm interesting a 2 perhaps more realistic? But still very enticing :)Lol we have discovered a new convective term/abbreviation! HGJs - home grown juiciness :)Sorry...do go on..

Ahahaha. Hgj's, sounds like some new stimulant. :lol:Looks like upper winds next week will be southerly or south easterly for a time - PERFECT for here. 28th July was a southerly too

[Ben Sainsbury]

Early next week looks very similar to the 28th July 2008 storms which brought a rash of severe storms from the West Country into the West Midlands. Here looks a prime region for some home grown juicyness!!!

Interesting estofex forecast back from 28th July 2008 yet only a level 1.

France, British Isles, Benelux, W Germany...During the afternoon, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will likely form over northern France, extreme W Germany and the Benelux. There, dew points near 20 C are expected. Scattered thunderstorms will probably develop, that could produce some localized large hail and flash flooding problems. Shear is weak in this area.Isolated storms are expected to develop over Great Britain and eastern parts of Ireland as well, where CAPE should be a bit lower.Towards the evening, moisture is expected to spread further westward across W France and southern England on approach of the upper-level system. As deep-layer shear increases to 15-20 m/s and forcing for upward vertical motion overspreads the area, convective storm activity is expected to increase. A likely scenario is that convective storms form over western France during the afternoon and merge into a large MCS moving into England.With 850 hPa winds near 15 m/s some strong and locally severe wind gusts are possible on the passage of this system. Overnight, as the system moves slowly, large amounts of precipitation will likely accumulate across southern and southwestern England, so that flooding problems are likely to occur there.

[nitro_deluxe]

HGJs or lorry loads! Take your pick.Threads already buzzing - that's even before the first sferic arrives on our slightly scorched shores..

Ahahaha. Hgj's, sounds like some new stimulant. :lol:Looks like upper winds next week will be southerly or south easterly for a time - PERFECT for here. 28th July was a southerly too

Edited July 20, 2013 by triple_x1

[NUT]

It a bit of a case of will it or will it not happen here for us it touch and go but with all the heat surely something got to give..............right?