Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Cloud 10]

Dew-points up to 22c for tuesday on the gfs 12z. 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a fun week coming up. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmm what's the betting that a county beginning with L ends up with the best of any homegrowns.. lol

 

It seems the GFS and higher res models based on it give us all the eye candy charts, but don't show us what most of the other models are showing.

I hope the models trend towards the GFS but that doesn't seem too likely IMO given it's the GFS against the rest.. Of course there will still be storm chances with the ECM etc, just probably not so good and I must admit I'd be a little disappointed if it ends up less good and in the east..

 

The Met Office forecast gives me hope though (but this was written before tonight's 12z models came out).

 

I must say, (and I'm being as realistic as possible), I'm starting to get that sinking feeling tonight because the ECM and UKMO show the best of the instability being shunted east. The GEM also makes less of the Tuesday into Wednesday 'event' and shoves it further east. How many times have we been here and how many times have we fallen into the trap of believing the GFS.

[Ben Sainsbury]

In general GFS is keeping things further west and the other models shunting it further east?

[Supacell]

I will chase if i need too but my area looks well placed so may just stay put. Decisions like that will be made on last minute forecasts and conditions.

[Evening thunder]

I must say, (and I'm being as realistic as possible), I'm starting to get that sinking feeling tonight because the ECM and UKMO show the best of the instability being shunted east. The GEM also makes less of the Tuesday into Wednesday 'event' and shoves it further east. How many times have we been here and how many times have we fallen into the trap of believing the GFS.

 

Indeed me too, this morning I was feeling a bit like that, but through the day I was feeling more optimistic with the GFS presenting things better on it's 06z and 12z run next week, but my hopes of the other models following to some degree weren't realised.

 

I guess the ECM might still be good for some 'thundery showers' type days (perhaps more thundery in a warmer air mass) in central/northern/eastern parts after mid week but not the big storms like the GFS shows on Tuesday, and being IMBY the south west looks to be one of the least prone areas in both the plume and afterwards on the ECM etc.

 

Not trying to be downbeat, I can be one of the most enthusiastic people about storms, just the models other than the GFS have left me a little more disapointed tbh. Obviously location effects my view and other peoples views.

Would be nice if the ECM was wrong like it was with the speed of the breakdown before yesterday (wanted to keep the 15C+ uppers a few days longer)

 

Edit: JMA does look better for places further west on Tuesday, not sure where this model ranks but think (not completely sure) I've heard the Met Office think relatively highly of it?

Edited July 20, 2013 by Stormmad26

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Usually the way, my location will end up being too far west, while the east has the fun and games, expect the meto to adjust the advisory to cover east midlands north and eastwards

[Karl83]

I'm hoping I won't need too chase as they might come to me but I'm filling my car up and have the time to go anywhere within a 30 - 40 mile radius of Bristol if I really need to.

I sure do hope they come to us mate. I've been waiting for this moment for a long, long time.

[todd1970]

Cant believe this forecast from met-office for my area.

 

I know this can and probably will change in the next few days , nevertheless its a beautiful sight to behold.    

[A.J]

hmm....06z NMM hi-res had thunderstorms breaking out over Somerset/Dorset & Wilts tomorrow afternoon and evening.....the 12z NMM however leaps out from its hidy hole and says 'you must be joking son, diddly squat for you tomorrow'......my, my, how a model can throw up different synoptics in consecutive runs.......

[todd1970]

Oooops forgot pic in the above post.

[Rustynailer]

Just like it was when the world was a saner place.The old English Storm Chase.

Will it beat the 28 06 2005, 24 06 2005, 19 06 2007,26 07 2006 and 22 07 2006? For me those were the best storm days of the past recent years not surprising they top the radar charts on my local radar IOW, now one of the oldest storm radars on the Internet I think. Netweather andThe IOW radar were very popular then to the point of crashing, I remember posting pictures for some of those storms on here and seeing other peoples work, some of which was utterly breath taking. It was fantastic to talk storms here in 2006 and 7, I noticed a real frantic buzz about the place akin to a winter blizzard(for want of a better word) with people posting, chasing storms and posting pictures at a furious rate. Soon I feel that we will see some special activity akin to that, the charts are very very interesting at the moment. The winters just past may, I say again may have their summer storm equivalent suddenly at last next week, yes at last.... Cool³

I have a good feeling that we are in for a catch up session regarding missing summer storms around here, nature is in balance in the end after all is said and done. About time any longer and the storms could be cataclysmic LOL

As I type the music of the Rhythm Tree rock Festival in Calbourne is drifting through my office window on a balmy Easterly breeze,..

[Paul Sherman]

I will chase if i need too but my area looks well placed so may just stay put. Decisions like that will be made on last minute forecasts and conditions.

 

Gotta ask this question, but how in the hell do you chase an MCS ? Also known as a ClusterF**k in the USA.

 

Surely if anyone is chasing then Home Grown Surface Based Storms are the only things worth chasing for structure, an MCS Will be a Grey Mess of rain with embedded lightning, MCS's are great at night though.

 

Have quite a few locations down here that I am hoping to utilise now I know my Camera Setting etc for Lightning.

[Staffordshire]

Well then that would just be incredible'! I'm just thinking, there must be people yunger than me who have never been through am MCS like that, so that will be something new for them. It will sure restore my love for the uk weather and well, all I can say is that it looks like I won't be sleeping much next week!

me chris, only just left school so i cant remember the july 2001 events, maybe because i didnt have an interest i weather when i was 4? excited for the prospect though

[A.J]

Gotta ask this question, but how in the hell do you chase an MCS ? Also known as a ClusterF**k in the USA.

 

Surely if anyone is chasing then Home Grown Surface Based Storms are the only things worth chasing for structure, an MCS Will be a Grey Mess of rain with embedded lightning, MCS's are great at night though.

 

Have quite a few locations down here that I am hoping to utilise now I know my Camera Setting etc for Lightning.

it would make for a cracking forecast though on Fergie's forecast on 'Points West'.........."tomorrow starts warm & sunny, temps up to 28C by mid afternoon, but watch out tomorrow evening as there's an almighty clusterf**k coming from France!"

[ChezWeather]

me chris, only just left school so i cant remember the july 2001 events, maybe because i didnt have an interest i weather when i was 4? excited for the prospect though

 

Same here bud, i vaguely remember events of 2005 and 2006 but i have never properly experienced an good overnight event  

[viking_smb]

Ajpoolshark, so what is the verdict? are we getting storms tomorrow night? or are they during the day jobs lol

[Bluebreezer54]

Gotta ask this question, but how in the hell do you chase an MCS ? Also known as a ClusterF**k in the USA.

 

Surely if anyone is chasing then Home Grown Surface Based Storms are the only things worth chasing for structure, an MCS Will be a Grey Mess of rain with embedded lightning, MCS's are great at night though.

 

Have quite a few locations down here that I am hoping to utilise now I know my Camera Setting etc for Lightning.

Blimey Paul. Thats a bit harsh !! Uk storms are few and far between these days so if the potential is there I would happily drive 50-60 miles or so to see a half decent storm.

[Paul Sherman]

it would make for a cracking forecast though on Fergie's forecast on 'Points West'.........."tomorrow starts warm & sunny, temps up to 28C by mid afternoon, but watch out tomorrow evening as there's an almighty clusterf**k coming from France!"

 

Shafferknickers Might say it,

[Paul Sherman]

Blimey Paul. Thats a bit harsh !! Uk storms are few and far between these days so if the potential is there I would happily drive 50-60 miles or so to see a half decent storm.

 

Yh Maybe after the Storm Drought I suppose so, By all means go drive and sit under heavy rain with flashes of lightning, but the main point I was trying to get across is MCS's are always best at night, at least then we have the Lightning to Photograph etc

It did not mean to come across as Harsh

[paul m]

Paul S harsh??? NEVER.........

Edited July 20, 2013 by paul m

[gottolovethisweather]

hmm....06z NMM hi-res had thunderstorms breaking out over Somerset/Dorset & Wilts tomorrow afternoon and evening.....the 12z NMM however leaps out from its hidy hole and says 'you must be joking son, diddly squat for you tomorrow'......my, my, how a model can throw up different synoptics in consecutive runs.......

 

The reason for this confusion IMO is France.

 

Bar development of isolated homegrown storms, the professional forecasters with varied model availability are often fooled by developments of MCSs up from the South. Right now something is brewing just across the English Channel. I'm not saying it will actually make it to our region but it does need paying attention to.  Hence once the atmosphere is unstable it is often advisable to stick to actual observations, i.e. sky, radar and satellite watching. To me, the fun is also in the chase of may happen unexpectedly rather than getting obsessed by numerical model predictions.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2742328

Edited July 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Paul Sherman]

Paul S harsh??? NEVER.........

 

  Only when the dreaded "Mini Tornado Word" is mentioned in our dear old beloved Press..........Maybe Harsh then, Oh and also Daytime ClusterF**K MCS's from Froggieland!

 

Have a feeling some of us are going to get a decent overnight show though!

Edited July 20, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[A.J]

*ahem*.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

......EL Bristolio is Coming!!!!!

 

That is all.........

[Costa Del Fal]

*ahem*.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

......EL Bristolio is Coming!!!!!

 

That is all.........

NO!!!!

 

EL BRUMO numero dos is coming!!!

 

:lol:

[chapmanslade]

In all of these situations the events of the night before influence the following day. A load of clag left over from an MCS can completely remove the chance of a storm the following day even if the synoptics suggest it will happen