Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[ZONE 51]

And that indicates?

I expect thunderstorms to import into the SW

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep Easterly shift now on the GFS 18z but Monday looks excellent for Wales and the West Midlands. Dont expect any changes to this now. Easterly shift doesnt bother me as im in Wales Tuesday. Could be more easterly shifts for Tuesday onwards. All looks fine for here Monday though!

[AWD]

From Ian Fergusson;

"Could be a lively morning in W Country on Monday if axis of thundery plume remains more to W (as currently indicated by EC DET & MOGREPS)..."

"However, given some model mismatches down south in source region for Monday's developments, it's no done deal regarding regional outcomes."

[Ben Sainsbury]

I expect thunderstorms to import into the SW

That's good but GFS is still awful for SW.

[Tom Jarvis]

Is the gfs good for the south east

[AWD]

That's good but GFS is still awful for SW.

Is it?? Edited July 20, 2013 by AWD

[lfcdude]

From Ian Fergusson;"Could be a lively morning in W Country on Monday if axis of thundery plume remains more to W (as currently indicated by EC DET & MOGREPS)...""However, given some model mismatches down south in source region for Monday's developments, it's no done deal regarding regional outcomes."

 

 

Confident, Salisbury plane micro climate 

[Bobby]

Looks like it's all getting shifted East again. NE even. Same old, same old.

 

I'll wager now we will NOT get a thunderstorm here (a few distance rumbles don't count).

[davehsug]

Great for Lincs as usual. Fear most will miss out again. Mass wrist slashing in the no storms club!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Is it??

image.jpg

Well if you class Tuesday; Monday's fine:D.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite a big change on this latest run. However, we all know what the GFS is like sometimes, tomorrow morning it could bin the idea of the low being as far north as it is being modelled, potential still certainly there for some lively action.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Is the gfs good for the south east

According to GFS 18Z; east anglia would be a good spot for Tuesday!

[Paul Sherman]

El Lincoln-Shear-io

 

Ole Ole Ole

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

was always going to happen, the east of the country is an absolute storm magnet.

[Supacell]

I wouldn't get too hung up on each GFS run at this range. There will be further shifts from run to run and in any case, with plume events such as this, the actual results are very unpredictable and we normally end up resorting to radar watching and nowcasting.

[NUT]

El Lincoln-Shear-io

 

Ole Ole Ole

 

And possibly El Glasgiow has been bought forward too

[ZONE 51]

Look at the Humidity 700hpa chart (NAE 18z) for midnight Sunday night:

15% dry tongue into SW

Edited July 20, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[cheese]

Don't worry, everyone - it looks much better for my back yard.

 

Looks more like El (East) Anglio to me, though.

Edited July 20, 2013 by cheese

[Ben Sainsbury]

I wouldn't get too hung up on each GFS run at this range. There will be further shifts from run to run and in any case, with plume events such as this, the actual results are very unpredictable and we normally end up resorting to radar watching and nowcasting.

Remember a few years ago in a plume set-up Bristol was a great spot and had no storms yet I was in Barnstaple and we had a great lightning show so I'm going with your thoughts!

[VillagePlank]

GEFS 12z still confident for London area,

 

 

... and just as confident for Cardiff area,

 

 

Almost certainly a watch what happens on the day, methinks! And a complete nightmare re: forecasting. MetO are being quite confident with their language regarding next weeks opportunities, I reckon.

[Alex95]

Looks great for NE England as usual, unfortunately I'll be in Florida.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

El Lincoln-Shear-io

 

Ole Ole Ole

 

Only a stones throw away from me ;D

[AWD]

18z NAE showing activity entering Somerset and Dorset during the early hours of Monday morning;

Then spreading into Bristol/Gloucs/Wiltshire/Hampshire;

Then into Berkshire & Oxfordshire;

And continuing towards London & the Home Counties;

[Tom Jarvis]

According to GFS 18Z; east anglia would be a good spot for Tuesday!

But I'm in East Sussex

[Ben Sainsbury]

But I'm in East Sussex

You still got a decent chance of seeing storms Monday and Tuesday!