Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Bobby]

FAX charts show a trough moving up from the SW tonight, could be what starts to kick things off

 

 

Monday night looks interesting too with 2 mini-lows associated with troughs...

 

[Evening thunder]

Well as I thought would happen based on last nights other models, things have shifted further east.. even tonight's possible happenings were initially shown like they might effect me, but are now further east.

 

Tuesday looks interesting for some, shame it might generally the east of the country now as that is a bit too far for me to go.

 

I wanted to try a chase or get a chance to photograph lightning at last if we got a night storm near here, so it's rather annoying, especially as it may be now or never as far as storms in a hot plume type air mass go this summer..

 

I think that later next week and into the weekend's more 'thundery shower' days under the slack low or slack pressure gradient might be quite good compared to how they normally are, with quite warm air still in place perhaps. GFS shows this to some extent with relatively high CAPE, although most of the action again moves away from the SW with not much shown for me at the moment. I wonder if the warmer ground temps and (in some places) quite warm SST's could help things in places?

 

Also have also been having problems with internet, but have some at times like now at least. Will probably be gone again later, until they send us a new router. You will probably be glad as you won't have to put up with my grumpy posts if we don't get anything near here! 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Stormmad26

[IanR]

Could be a bit of a light show for some tonight. Even isolated storms, because of their high based nature, would be able to be seen from 50 miles + away.

I remember seeing  a CB last August over the Irish sea coast from Wigan with lightning. and some posters from West Yorkshire said they saw it.  OK the lightning was not quite as frequent as in the link I have shown but it looked very similar with the CBs outlined against the dusk sky

 

could happen again in the next few evenings if we are lucky enough,

Here ...

[Aceman]

Well as expected based on last nights other models, things are shifted further east.. even tonight's possible happenings were initially shown like they might effect me, but are now further east. Tuesday looks interesting for some, shame it might generally the east of the country now as that is a bit too far for me to go. I wanted to try a chase or get a chance to photograph lightning at last if we got a night storm near here, so it's rather annoying, especially as it may be now or never as far as storms in a hot plume type air mass go this summer.. I think that later next week and into the weekend's more 'thundery shower' days under the slack low or slack pressure gradient might be quite good compared to how they normally are, with quite warm air still in place perhaps. GFS shows this to some extent with relatively high CAPE, although most of the action again moves away from the SW with not much shown for me at the moment. I wonder if the warmer ground temps and (in some places) quite warm SST's could help things in places?

I expect the sw will be the breeding ground for any thunderstorms (as usual), although that does mean we get to see some young angry clouds forming which tend to make good pics

[paul m]

If it happens it happens. Nice topup for the garden, Lightshow for some and a super group of people on here reporting on them

[butler_son]

Here's hoping for some good overnight storms for all, although in reality i'm still not enthusiastic just as yet especially with all this cloud lurking over us despite this same moisture content being initiated into the next week as the plume hits. Does anyone have any tips for night-lightning photography? I got a D3100 and haven't used it in these kinds of setups, i'm guessing a exposure time of a few seconds is better than just snapping away randomly on burst mode.

 

Hope they come at night! My plans are shoot in manual (on a tripod), ISO 100, aperture quite narrow (that way I should have a large depth of field) so f/11+, exposure time of around 20 sec and adjust from there if it needs more/less light. A lightning strike should definitely show up whatever, just all about how much contrast you want. Don't think you'll get anything meaningful shooting on burst mode. Will be my first time doing this too so hoping for something I can get, got an ND filter at the ready for anything in daytime. Good luck!

 

Btw this I've found on another forum has the data on the settings used on Flickr (under additional info) so something to use as a guide. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrdespair/9323662711/in/photostream/

Edited July 21, 2013 by butler_son

[Bobby]

I can see some towering cumulus to my south, otherwise clear blue skies. Looks fairly sizeable. 41% humidity and 24.5c at the moment.

[Darren Bown]

I remember seeing  a CB last August over the Irish sea coast from Wigan with lightning. and some posters from West Yorkshire said they saw it.  OK the lightning was not quite as frequent as in the link I have shown but it looked very similar with the CBs outlined against the dusk sky

 

could happen again in the next few evenings if we are lucky enough,

Here ...

 

The lightning in the first few seconds that is just caught as the camera pans was from the top of the CB all the way to the ground! Quite a rare strike I think?

 

I've noticed a considerable increase in humidity here, hardly any sun all day, with quite cool temps this morning has given way to an increase in wind and a warmer, muggier feel.

[Staffordshire]

I might stay up until 3-4am to monitor potential developments. I'll just have a tired day at work.The things us weather nutters would do eh?! Run myself ragged back in winter and spring during those cold spells. Used to wait up for the 0z GFS!

yeah i am definitley staying up, playing the old xbox whilst waiting will make it go quicker! but yea so did i, whenever there was a snow potential i was up at 3:30 on the dot

[Biggin]

am really begining to think that with all this cloud cover and low temps that any storms will die a death before they reach here

 

 

Sweltering heat clear blue sky here

[Supacell]

Personally I think I will go to bed about 7pm and set my alarm for about 1am, that way I get 6 hours sleep so can still cope with work tomorrow even if I am out filming early hours thunderstorms. However, considering the potential for tomorrow around this area......    - if you catch ma drift?

[chrisb1357]

Hi Supacell hows it looking for Alfreton area this afternoon and tonight

 

Chris

 

 

Personally I think I will go to bed about 7pm and set my alarm for about 1am, that way I get 6 hours sleep so can still cope with work tomorrow even if I am out filming early hours thunderstorms. However, considering the potential for tomorrow around this area......    - if you catch ma drift?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Everyone check the radar loads of cells just formed near Rennes!

[Supacell]

Hi Supacell hows it looking for Alfreton area this afternoon and tonight

 

Chris

 

Nothing for today around our area. I'd say any chances for tonight are much later on towards the morning, but if I am honest I cannot see much reaching as far as us from this first batch, I am thinking Birmingham to Leicester to be its northern limit (but i may be wrong if things kick off earlier).

 

From early afternoon tomorrow right through to the early hours of Wednesday look very promising though with tonnes of CAPE (NMM has CAPE over 3000j/g and a LI of -10 tomorrow afternoon), wind convergence and eventually some vertical wind shear to add into the mix too. We look to be in a good place for homegrown storms and possible MCS features moving up also (although MCS storms can sometimes inhibit homegrown potential due to the cloud and clag they tend to leave behind).

 

Nothing certain yet but looking the best I have seen for a good few years 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Supacell

[poseidon]

Liking the look of this (though not counting any chickens yet)....

 

[Panayiotis]

This is the current situation in Cardiff, just some small towering Cu to the west, I am leaving to go Cyprus in 4 hours so if any thing does kick off I will miss it, but hopefully I get to see something in the skies! 

Just my luck that I go and leave right at the start of something quite noteworthy! So good luck to everyone and hopefully you get your fair share of thunderstorms! 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[poseidon]

Everyone check the radar loads of cells just formed near Rennes!

First bit of lightning showing up for these now.

[TEITS]

Cannot tell you how excited I am at the next few days potential. Reminds me of back in the early 1990s when storms developed following a heatwave, and at the time I was on holiday in Wells, Norfolk. The lightning from those storms started at 10pm and continued to 6am. I had a seaview from my bedroom and it was a sight I will never forget.

 

I mentioning this because this could be similar. The distribution of storms is impossible to predict but what does look certain is the potential for storms to break out occurs over a relatively long period. I doubt I will get much sleep tomorrow night due to the potential coming up from the S plus the incredibly high humidity, warm temps.

 

Peak of activity appears to be tomorrow afternoon into Tues evening when finally the storms should clear late evening. Chance Thursday could see more storms after a drier day on Wednesday although im not expecting the storms on Thursday to be as widespread or severe as Mon/Tues.

[Bluebreezer54]

Video is a great option just make sure auto focus settings are off as it struggles with lightning, although that could just be my cheap camera.

 

Well thats something that would never occur to me. Cheers for that info TTP

[AWD]

Latest NAE looks interesting for a large swathe of England and east Wales, with the exception of Devon & Cornwall maybe.

On phone and busy so can't post charts sorry but the potential is there for much of England. As ever though, storms are hit and miss so no doubt regional variations will apply.

[Bluebreezer54]

suddenly feels very warm and humid out in the S-East now

 

noticeably warmer than just a few hours ago

 

Indeed. The temperature here has soared from 20c to 26c in 2 hours.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Tony Gilbert of UKweatherworld has issued his interesting forecast for tomorrow!

 

AM Period; Slight Risk of Elevated Thundery Showers 00Z-12Z Dorset northward through to NW Wales, and SE UK (inc Channel Islands).

PM Period; Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland. Moderate Risk of SB Tstorms NW Ireland, Wales through to SW Scotland 12Z-00Z

A rather mixed bag of potential events hence divided into am and pm periods. Prime risk for severe weather pm period. High pressure moves slowly eastward allowing for marginal though still significant influence of the upper trough to the west. A surface low pressure regime develops slowly through the afternoon across UK with elevated convection turning surface based. Upper shear rather marginal but still influential; Whilst only partial separation of updraft to downdraft will likely occur the fact that the storms look to move in a steady transit north suggest that favourable warm inflow can be sustained from the NE sector of any building cell. So in short whilst storms might look rather messy they are likely to adopt a cyclic life span. Cyclic storms can develop tornadoes if the low level shear is in place but this does not look to be the case here ATM. Whilst a small number of funnel clouds are likely along any sea breeze convergence zones I do not see the potential for fully fledge tornado development Prime risk looks to be cg's on a local scale and quite prevalent nearer the stronger CAPE's. In fact lightning can on occasions be more deadly than others. This could well be the case here!

 

[AWD]

Tony Gilbert of UKweatherworld has issued his interesting forecast for tomorrow!

AM Period; Slight Risk of Elevated Thundery Showers 00Z-12Z Dorset northward through to NW Wales, and SE UK (inc Channel Islands).

PM Period; Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland. Moderate Risk of SB Tstorms NW Ireland, Wales through to SW Scotland 12Z-00Z

amrisk.jpg PMrisk.jpg

.

Interesting in that it's further west than what some models show. I like the fact I'm in the red box. Hope he is right.

[Bobby]

Well I personally like the look of the NASA model for tomorrow night 

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Omg where's Wales gone?