Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Petorious]

according to the netweather radar there is a lightning between the isle of Portland and Weymouth, can anyone verify this?

 

I have also seen strikes displayed on SD.info however I believe the positioning is a little incorrect and its actually from the storms on the french coast.

 

...

 

On another note this is the view from my bedroom window which points south with a whole 180 degree of viewing, one of the main reasons I think I love storms, last time I see this whole skyline turn black was probably 2006 so hoping to see some good stuff again day and or night.

 

 

Peter

[gottolovethisweather]

You wish ! NE France/Belgium is where they are heading, if anywhere.

 

Said like a professional.   I personally think there is an outside chance that the MCS like feature could head towards the South Coast over the coming hours and from there, who knows.

 

The BBC are suggesting a chance of isolated overnight outbreaks so I'm happy to go with their guidance, now that we are into <t+12 hour timeframe.

[weatherobsuk]

Cells over northern france do have that easterly component to them, however in the last few run's they look increasingly to be heading a tad more northwards as the plume influences vectoring down to 850hpa. GFS was also keen to have a MCS system exploding out across Wales overnight so we'll have to see if this run was to prediction, so far the GFS has done pretty well in areas that are now seeing storms.

[the storm fisherman]

If anyone is interested take a look across the channel at the Cherbourg  peninsular on radar and how that thunder storm has exploded in the last hour or so

[chapmanslade]

according to the netweather radar there is a lightning between the isle of Portland and Weymouth, can anyone verify this?

There has been one there about the same time for the last few days - spooky goings on in Weymouth !

[viking_smb]

wow that's spooky, - remember the spooks of bottle bay on CITV lol.....,

back to reality I'm not sure about storms for south wales tonight, probably tomorrow, better not have one tomorrow eve as running a RYA Power level 2 course in the channel in the evening and don't want a soaking

[AWD]

Not a bad updated FAX for Tuesday.

Plenty of embedded troughs in the flow, with associated thunderstorms moving east/north east amongst them. I do prefer this mornings FAX IMBY I think, but the above is still interesting enough.

[nanu]

If anyone is interested take a look across the channel at the Cherbourg  peninsular on radar and how that thunder storm has exploded in the last hour or so

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

[Buckster]

I reckon - worst case if we don't get anything in the S-East tonight - I think there will be visible distant lightning

 

lovely on a still hot summers evening

[Cloudwatcher]

already booking my usual place in the NSC...nothing for us here as usual....

[Robbie Garrett]

Latest Met Office Aviation chart says that Showers of rain and TS/CB (Thunderstorm/Cumulonimbus) will develop more widely in AREAS C tonight,  that Wales/Ireland all the way down to Kent. Thunderstorms will be quite high based, so 6000ft to 8000ft but are likely to be very strong. Mostly Embedded so I suspect that it's likely what's forming over Northern France is an MCS from a TROUGH heading 010-015 from it's currently location. Which puts over London and Central Southern England sometime this evening.

 

From looking at the charts, midnight is my best guess...     MetOffice local weather forecasters are not hinting at this stage that the MCS once it's up and running will survive the Channel, but let's not torture ourselves yet but we could be in for our first Nighttime storm.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I like the sound of the latest netweather headline.

 

It's Going To Go Bang - Storms Brewing

 

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Thunderstorms and torrential downpours are set to take the headlines away from the heat during the coming few days as the fine spell finally breaks down, but even so, Monday is likely to be the hottest of the heatwave with highs peaking at 33-34c, maybe even a 35c possible. 

The reason for the change is low pressure approaching from the southwest, destabilising the atmosphere and eventually pushing fronts up across the country, so we can expect some very lively weather with intense storms which will bring the risk of localised flooding, hail and strong gusting winds. As is often the case with showers and storms though, not everywhere will catch the nastiest conditions. 

Starting Monday, a few storms may well have made their way into southern England and Wales overnight, but in the main it's a dry start to the day. The humidity will give the day an oppressive feel and temperatures will quickly climb through the morning, with much of England and Wales pushing into the high twenties. For southern England - particularly central and eastern parts (away from the slightly cooler coasts) 30c will be exceeded in many parts, with southeast England the likely hotspot with 33-35c on the cards. It's a touch cooler as you head further north, Scotland will peak into the mid-twenties, with the east coast being the exception as low cloud will tend to keep a lid on the temperatures here - the far northeast of England may see similar too.

From late morning the heat will start to trigger some potentially very hefty storms, with southwest England and Wales likely to see them initially before they slowly drift northeast into the Midlands, northern England and eventually southern Scotland during the remainder of the day. More storms with torrential rain are liable to develop in other parts of England and Wales during the latter part of the day and overnight too, again slowly pushing northeast.

Tuesday sees more heat and humidity, although not quite as hot as Monday, and more potentially vicious storms to watch out for - which may well become quite widepsread by this point too. Into midweek, we keep the risk of storms and downpours, and although it will eventually become a little cooler and fresher, it'll still be very warm with highs up into the low to mid twenties for many. 

Summing up though, some potentially very nasty weather about during this week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecasts during the coming days.

Edited July 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

Latest Met Office Aviation chart says that Showers of rain and TS/CB (Thunderstorm/Cumulonimbus) will develop more widely in AREAS C tonight,  that Wales/Ireland all the way down to Kent. Thunderstorms will be quite high based, so 6000ft to 8000ft but are likely to be very strong. Mostly Embedded so I suspect that it's likely what's forming over Northern France is an MCS from a TROUGH heading 010-015 from it's currently location. Which puts over London and Central Southern England sometime this evening.

 

From looking at the charts, midnight is my best guess...     MetOffice local weather forecasters are not hinting at this stage that the MCS once it's up and running will survive the Channel, but let's not torture ourselves yet but we could be in for our first Nighttime storm.

 

 

What does slow mean for zones A & A1?

[Robbie Garrett]

What does slow mean for zones A & A1?

 

Slow moving FOG and MIST normally, same as this morning (North SEA murk)...

[pad199207]

Anybody know if Ireland is at much risk tonight? That Aviation Chart posted above has me thinking we might be in for some sparks , we as before I wasnt expecting anything?

[Southern Storm]

Looking to my south I have noticed a Change from clear blue skys to small cumulus clouds poping up out to sea

I have also noticed an increase in storms just off the French coast, so feeling cautiously optimistic for tonight

Edited July 21, 2013 by thunderman24

[Southern Storm]

Slow moving FOG and MIST normally, same as this morning (North SEA murk)...

how to crush someone's hopes in one fail swoop, love it!

[Robbie Garrett]

Anybody know if Ireland is at much risk tonight? That Aviation Chart posted above has me thinking we might be in for some sparks , we as before I wasnt expecting anything?

Ocassional in area C1 7KM Showers of rain with isolated Thunderstorms/Shower of heavy rain.      OVERCAST in area C1 but ISOLATED embedded CB mainly TROUGH.  It's all up in the OPEN I'd say, from my childhood I remember having the ODD overnight MCS/Thunderstorms out of nowhere. This could be the case tonight...

 

how to crush someone's hopes in one fail swoop, love it!

 

It spoiled my day today, wanted to go Manston and see the NEW BA A380 departing/landing to from RAF Fairford but the cloud and vis was on the floor most of the day. 

[Darren Bown]

What does slow mean for zones A & A1?

What's the 'B' sector saying please?

[The watcher]

Anybody know if Ireland is at much risk tonight? That Aviation Chart posted above has me thinking we might be in for some sparks , we as before I wasnt expecting anything?

 

 

There's a few showers of the coast of Wexford and Dublin. Few strikes from them too. Heading NNW.

[sparky1972]

i have to admit that i feel it will take a big change to get the heat here to aid any storms, last 2 days been cool damp and cloudy, still fingers crossed, have a new camera ready to catch some lighting pics if you should see some

[paul m]

i have to admit that i feel it will take a big change to get the heat here to aid any storms, last 2 days been cool damp and cloudy, still fingers crossed, have a new camera ready to catch some lighting pics if you should see some

THATS JUST UP HERE. Apparently its been a scorcher further SOUTH

[sparky1972]

they have had it very hot down south, hoping to feel a bit of that heat tomorrow

 

THATS JUST UP HERE. Apparently its been a scorcher further SOUTH

[syncmaster]

As always in these situations patience is Needed !!!!!

[weatherobsuk]

Pretty much most airfield METARS across the country going for heavy thunderstorms/hail during the next 24hr period.