Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

.Interesting in that it's further west than what some models show. I like the fact I'm in the red box. Hope he is right.

So am I, but only just;)

[weatherobsuk]

Well I personally like the look of the NASA model for tomorrow night 

 

 

If that comes off I think a trip up to the cheshire ridge near Kidsgrove is in order.

[Karl83]

. Interesting in that it's further west than what some models show. I like the fact I'm in the red box. Hope he is right.

I don't know whether to get excited or not lol. I think from previous times gone by I'm ready to be disappointed but part of me feels we could see something decent.Like others on here I'm looking to shoot some lightning shots. My 1st time attempting this so good luck to the other 1st timers, I look forward to seeing your shots!

[IanR]

Well I personally like the look of the NASA model for tomorrow night 

 

I hope that does not get the hopes up too much for crewecold and wrexhamcarl

[chapmanslade]

Dew points of 20C in Central France at the moment !

[AWD]

I don't know whether to get excited or not lol. I think from previous times gone by I'm ready to be disappointed but part of me feels we could see something decent.Like others on here I'm looking to shoot some lightning shots. My 1st time attempting this so good luck to the other 1st timers, I look forward to seeing your shots!

I'm thinking of heading to high ground to the NE of Bristol tomorrow night as even if we don't get anything overhead, I should be able to view lightning within a 40 mile or so radius.

[Supacell]

Tony Gilbert is thinking a little west of where I was thinking, but he is far more experienced in forecasting than me. Either option favors me in the middle though, whether I am on the eastern side, western side or right in the middle of the high risk area.

 

Deadly lightning  . I know lightning in Florida is apparently more deadly - something to do with the massive heights cloud tops attain along convergence zones there. 

[AWD]

Interesting for more western members;

Provides us with hope still.

[Mesoscale]

Nice storm just west of Le Harve, currently producing 4 strikes a minute.

[Southern Storm]

Things kicking off big time the other side of the channel, one to keep an eye on over the next few hours for anyone along the south coast ( that includes me ) 

 

Tm24

Edited July 21, 2013 by thunderman24

[Evening thunder]

FAX charts show a trough moving up from the SW tonight, could be what starts to kick things off

 

 

Monday night looks interesting too with 2 mini-lows associated with troughs...

 

 

oo that 2nd one looks interesting, just 20 miles further west please! mind you if things form around west Dorset that shouldn't be too out of reach as long as I see them coming.

I expect the sw will be the breeding ground for any thunderstorms (as usual), although that does mean we get to see some young angry clouds forming which tend to make good pics

 

you may well be right, and that's true also for example sometimes it can be annoying if sea breezes or something stops storms forming near/over me with them a bit further inland, but you can get a better view of the CB structures from a distance sometimes (although we would still need them in the region not 100 miles away lol).

[gpspete]

  from blitzortung

 

 

 

storms breaking out all over EU http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php

 

[Methuselah]

image_b_eu.png   from blitzortung

 

 

 

storms breaking out all over EU http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php

That'll please Nigel Farage... 

[South coaster]

I'm in portsmouth what's the likely hood of storms Monday night ??

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm in portsmouth what's the likely hood of storms Monday night ??

Even if you don't see storms your quite likely to at least see some lightning; this would be tonight if thats what you mean?

Edited July 21, 2013 by interestingweather

[Fitzwis]

Nice storm just west of Le Harve, currently producing 4 strikes a minute.

Headed this way and expecting it here in the next hour or so

[Ben Sainsbury]

So the bbc just tweeted be warned?

[Cornishdave]

I really can't remember the last real good T storm we had here

me neither, had the odd flash and rumble amongst some hailstorms but that's about the lot, finger crossed for this week

[South coaster]

Any idea of time I'm a bit new to this but love a good weather event ")

[nitro_deluxe]

I'm in portsmouth what's the likely hood of storms Monday night ??

Virtually nil lol...same as anyone else joking aside! Crystal balls don't come cheap

[bristolstormchaser]

So the bbc just tweeted be warned?

BPtXhkvCYAA6zvi.png large.png

Like the look of that cell just to the south of Bristol. I know it's just a model, but if that one to south of Bristol forms and moves north we'll both be very happy men!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Currently must be at least 20 storms in Northern France currently!

Like the look of that cell just to the south of Bristol. I know it's just a model, but if that one to south of Bristol forms and moves north we'll both be very happy men!

It wouldn't make my day, it would make my year!

[BrickFielder]

Too early for a proper forecast for tomorrow yet, but low level convergence moving north could be a focus.

 

Forecast skewT's suggest some veering winds at low level but upper level winds are weak.

 

Moist upper layer could give some high cloud limiting things. Mid to upper level wind veering is limited but might just be enough for a weak super cell (depends on local conditions and I am not convinced). Low level wind convergence would be conducive for weak tornadoes enhance perhaps by decent lift from high instability. Drier slot through the mid level does help convection, but there does not appear to be much of a cap. You could end up with a messy MCS instead of individual storms.

 

There is still time for things to change significantly in the forecast (i.e. no storms at all).

[MP-R]

I notice tomorrow's early morning storms have disappeared for this side of the country from the BBC forecast. Good start.

[tara303]

Is that a Cherbourg Sausage on Blitzortung???