Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

I notice tomorrow's early morning storms have disappeared for this side of the country from the BBC forecast. Good start.

But we have been introduced Monday night event!

[jamesslater93]

Hail in Rennes... (I hope the links work!)

 

https://vine.co/v/hKmKMPqitXr

https://twitter.com/Ilugykc/status/358988921029414912

 

This was uploaded about 5 mins ago, could it be a sign of things to come for the next couple of days over here?

[nanu]

Can somebody help me with an argument im having with a friend.. its going waaaaayy back to the first live aid concert (1985) and i swear we had storms (london area) overnight just after that had finished??  can anybody confirm this so i can shut him up!!

[Bobby]

Can somebody help me with an argument im having with a friend.. its going waaaaayy back to the first live aid concert (1985) and i swear we had storms (london area) overnight just after that had finished??  can anybody confirm this so i can shut him up!!

 

The chart for this date (13th July) does look thundery with a low/trough moving up from the SW overnight with fairly high temperatures in the SE.

 

 

 

Don't know exactly if there were storms but it does look a stormy setup so I wouldn't be surprised.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Bobby

[Petorious]

Hi I am new to this site, though I have viewed it plenty of times due to my love for storms I thought I would join in the chatter as it looks like the next 48 hours could be the most explosive the skies have been in a long time. My location is south Northamptonshire and I am hoping I will be in the middle of some of these storms.

I have strike display, rain radar, Google earth all up ready to track these storms and is looking good.

 

 

Anyways hello to you all and lets hope we can enjoy these storms, also hoping this breakdown doesn't do the usual and kill the rest of summer lol.

 

Peter 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Hi I am new to this site, though I have viewed it plenty of times due to my love for storms I thought I would join in the chatter as it looks like the next 48 hours could be the most explosive the skies have been in a long time. My location is south Northamptonshire and I am hoping I will be in the middle of some of these storms.

I have strike display, rain radar, Google earth all up ready to track these storms and is looking good.

 

 

Anyways hello to you all and lets hope we can enjoy these storms, also hoping this breakdown doesn't do the usual and kill the rest of summer lol.

 

Peter 

Hello Peter welcome to this forum; we are all welcome to have you here. So we all know your location you can put it in your profile. By the looks of things you are in a very decent spot for storms on Tuesday.

[Darren Bown]

Just seen Alex Deakin's forecast at http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23397083 and love the description of 'viscious thunderstorms' Mon night into Tues.

[AWD]

Nice to see some of the NWP models correct west a little rather than the expected east correction tonight.

Every little helps.

Edited July 21, 2013 by AWD

[The PIT]

Just seen Alex Deakin's forecast at http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23397083 and love the description of 'viscious thunderstorms' Mon night into Tues.

That's the word of death. Vicious thunderstorms. That means a few spells of drizzle and storms stopping at the channel. Humdingers anyone.

[Petorious]

Hello Peter welcome to this forum; we are all welcome to have you here. So we all know your location you can put it in your profile. By the looks of things you are in a very decent spot for storms on Tuesday.

 

Thanks and sorted

 

Does many people on here use strike display, I have used it for a good two to three years now I find it sort of accurate most of the time but a little fishy every now and then?

 

Pete

[Darren Bown]

Cork is about to get walloped.

[weatherobsuk]

Well the D3100 camera is all set up in anticipation, my preliminary settings is to have the white-balance set to auto, ISO 400 to start off with toggling between 200 and 800 depending on how much 'light' any storm is producing, an exposure time of 20 seconds and a focal range of f5.6. No doubt there'll be a lot of trial and error given it's my first true attempt at such a venture outside of a film camera before, but I look forward to whatever nature brings nonetheless.

[MrNooo]

Yup same here although slightly different settings, F8 ISO 100-200, 30 secs, tripod and remote clicker!! I hope we all get a good chance to get some decent shots!!

[Evening thunder]

My internet is back again for a bitWoah nice looking storms over France - but typically earlier some storms developed west of SW England and moved SE-NW, but these appear to be moving NE! lol

Edited July 21, 2013 by Stormmad26

[SnowJoke]

Storms over on the french coast seem to be producing a lot of +cg lightning, almost three times the ammount of the -cg's. Is it because they are high based storms?

[Bobby]

Well the D3100 camera is all set up in anticipation, my preliminary settings is to have the white-balance set to auto, ISO 400 to start off with toggling between 200 and 800 depending on how much 'light' any storm is producing, an exposure time of 20 seconds and a focal range of f5.6. No doubt there'll be a lot of trial and error given it's my first true attempt at such a venture outside of a film camera before, but I look forward to whatever nature brings nonetheless.

 

You could set it on an interval timer, taking a shot every minute for example and adjusting the position of camera according to where the most interest is. Then you could let the camera do it's work while you can enjoy the storms too. Probably won't require a high ISO also if using a 20s exposure and you'll probably get cleaner images. Plenty of light with a big flash.

[NUT]

For those with NW Extra radar that's a interesting blob of white in france!

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like my storm magnet is working lol as the storms in France r heading my way

[Cliffyboy1962]

Looks like my storm magnet is working lol as the storms in France r heading my way

You wish ! NE France/Belgium is where they are heading, if anywhere.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Cliffyboy1962

[viking_smb]

according to the netweather radar there is a lightning between the isle of Portland and Weymouth, can anyone verify this?

[weatherobsuk]

You could set it on an interval timer, taking a shot every minute for example and adjusting the position of camera according to where the most interest is. Then you could let the camera do it's work while you can enjoy the storms too. Probably won't require a high ISO also if using a 20s exposure and you'll probably get cleaner images. Plenty of light with a big flash.

 

Just depends on the nature of the storms really, anything based higher-up tends to produce the most amount of lightning per minute so my thinking is to have exposure at 20s to get as much frame-fill as possible with the ISO at 400 to combat any potential murk/cloud obscuring the lightning. But if things turn more CG then i'll lower the ISO to 200 for a more clearer shot but with a longer exposure setting in the hope something will come into frame as pretty much anything with a 4-strikes p/m average is bound to drop a strike down dead-ahead.

[Supacell]

Thanks and sorted

 

Does many people on here use strike display, I have used it for a good two to three years now I find it sort of accurate most of the time but a little fishy every now and then?

 

Pete

 

Hi Pete and welcome to the forum.

 

I have little experience of strike display but I find the most accurate lightning detector to the be one on netweather. One of the best tools for tracking thunderstorms is the netweather V6 radar which updates every 5 minutes and allows you to zoom in, but it does come at a small monthly subscription. This lightning detector is free though: 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

 

Looking through the latest charts it appears that the main storms for my area may very well be later tomorrow and throughout tomorrow night. If things come together as being shown on the current charts then some quite powerful storms are possible with intense and frequent lightning and very large rainfall totals which could cause flash flooding especially with the ground being so dry and hardened. There is also a slight risk of supercell formation as per the chart below:

 

 

With these there could be some gusty winds, the very slight risk of a tornado but maybe more likely the risk of some moderate hail. Estofex hail parameter gives 2-3cm diameter hail, which is about marble sized, and I feel would be very achievable considering the high CAPE values progged and ELT's as low as -55c!

 

 

 

A very exciting 48-72 hours ahead.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Supacell

[TropicThunder]

Just seen Alex Deakin's forecast at http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23397083 and love the description of 'viscious thunderstorms' Mon night into Tues.

It's a long time since I've heard a BBC forecast ramping up the storm potential so much, like the sound of "Big, big storms"!

[Duane S.]

according to the netweather radar there is a lightning between the isle of Portland and Weymouth, can anyone verify this?

I can verify that unless something very freakish is occuring 3 miles south of me, lightning is not occuring in the Weymouth vicinity. Blue skies and wispy cloud cover will hopefully give way though to something more conduicive later on tonight / tomorrow morning

Edited July 21, 2013 by s4lancia

[butler_son]

Well the D3100 camera is all set up in anticipation, my preliminary settings is to have the white-balance set to auto, ISO 400 to start off with toggling between 200 and 800 depending on how much 'light' any storm is producing, an exposure time of 20 seconds and a focal range of f5.6. No doubt there'll be a lot of trial and error given it's my first true attempt at such a venture outside of a film camera before, but I look forward to whatever nature brings nonetheless.

 

Auto WB is fine, ISO sounds a bit high for the time of year, a lower ISO is less sensitive to light and you don't want to have pictures that are blindingly white, and a lightning strike will be hard to miss. You may be better off at 200. Make sure that it doesn't auto ISO anyway though, my D3000 used to love doing that before I figured out how to stop it. Also f5.6 sounds too wide for 2 reasons - firstly the wider the aperture (lower number = wider), the more light you'll let in and won't be able to see the strike and secondly you'll have a shallower depth of field. Assuming you've got a kit lens have it at 18mm I'd say so you've got more chance of catching something. 20s exposure sounds great. Of course, this is all assuming you'll be shooting at night!

 

Anyhow, still warm and sunny in Eastern Dorset but looks like from what everyone is posting we stand a good chance of something over the next 2 days.