Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[VillagePlank]

Interesting MetO languages. 'Energetic storms' rather than 'frequent thunderstorms' Curious.

[Eskimo]

Interesting MetO languages. 'Energetic storms' rather than 'frequent thunderstorms' Curious.

Self fueling MCS potential, expect nasty thunderstorms. 

[Supacell]

The GFS 06z moves everything west by about 100 miles for next week but the general pattern is the same, although clearly not as good IMBY as the highest CAPE transfers west also. The end of the week plume is delayed until Saturday but is still on there, however by then I think most of us will have had a shot at some decent storms (although some places will inevitably miss all the action).

[Stormeh]

Hey guys, can someone give me the latest forecast for Paris? I am going tomorrow for 5 days. I am no expert at looking at the models but I do know I have a great chance of catching a decent thunderstorm or two as it is going to be very hot and humid.

[poseidon]

Seems like the place to be is in Wales.

[andymusic]

Seems like the place to be is in Wales.

I'd say - looking like monday/tuesday & wednesday could deliver - we shall see!

[nitro_deluxe]

Hey guys, can someone give me the latest forecast for Paris? I am going tomorrow for 5 days. I am no expert at looking at the models but I do know I have a great chance of catching a decent thunderstorm or two as it is going to be very hot and humid.

I think that your chances are indeed pretty high for catching a light show or two over The Channel. Heat usually goes with a bang with that bit more certainty on the mainland. Pretty good (lucky!) timing if that's your kinda thing The ingredients set for some storm action, thankfully extend over our shores as well. Going to get busy folks!

[cheese]

I expect nothing here at all. I'll be posting in the NSC next week.

[paul m]

I expect nothing here at all. I'll be posting in the NSC next week.

See you there lol

[VillagePlank]

Here's the vertical velocity (upward air movement) for Weds, 6am

 

[VillagePlank]

Self fueling MCS potential, expect nasty thunderstorms. 

 

Yes, but the MetO have it on the lowest possible likelyhood for their warnings.

[VillagePlank]

Two MCS' for late Tues/E Weds,

 

[AWD]

Yes, but the MetO have it on the lowest possible likelyhood for their warnings.

Probably because it's still a fair way away in forecasting terms still.With further model output over the weekend and into next week, they will likely increase the probability, if of course, it's still being modelled by next week.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I do reckon we will see something that we could possibly compare to the likes of July 1999 or July 2001. I've seen the charts for those months and this looks very very similar to them. Now those storms, I remember being woken up to sonic booming sounding thunder, and I'm not joking either by saying it seemed like it would never clear off. I mean the activity was constant pretty much all night long until dawn, when even then you could still hear the eerie low sporadic booming in the distance! I was only a little primary schoolboy then, but still I remember it clear as crystal!!

The models seemed to have upgraded the potential this morning keeping that low further West and making it more of a proper cut off low. The longer we can keep it West of us, the better we can maintain the longevity of this very interesting looking activity coming up. 

I honestly wish each and every storm enthusiast the best of luck and for some spectacular lightning shows to be put on display by mother nature

Edited July 20, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[VillagePlank]

GEFS going for the event to occur in London,

 

[VillagePlank]

skew-t for London, Monday evening already looks interesting,

 

 

Moderate convective potential (KI=29) leading to likely thunderstorms, some isolated severe (TT=50) Almost certainly this will lead to very heavy downpours, and localised flooding (PW=3.32) Hail and frequent lightning possible (CAPE=874j/kg) There is a cap (CIN=21) but shear should overcome it (EH=24,SREH=24)

 

Looking good, but still plenty of time for change, corrections, ommissions and complete disappearance.

 

Edited July 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Ben Sainsbury]

skew-t for London, Monday evening already looks interesting,

 

skew-t.gif

 

Moderate convective potential (KI=29) leading to likely thunderstorms, some isolated severe (TT=50) Almost certainly this will lead to very heavy downpours, and localised flooding (PW=3.32) Hail and frequent lightning possible (CAPE=874j/kg) There is a cap (CIN=21) but shear should overcome it (EH=24,SREH=24)

 

Looking good, but still plenty of time for change, corrections, ommissions and complete disappearance.

 

And London isn't even one of the places most at risk!

[VillagePlank]

And London isn't even one of the places most at risk!

 

Here's Cardiff, for the same time as London one above

 

 

!!

 

Edited July 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Eskimo]

Here's Cardiff, for the same time as London one above

 

cardiff.gif

 

!!

 

No CIN, brilliant!

[Bobby]

Here's Cardiff, for the same time as London one above

 

cardiff.gif

 

!!

 

 

Come to daddy!

[Marcus_surfer]

All charts will change but probably the best potential the south and west has seen for quite a few years?

[J10]

Wow these charts for Tuesday evening!ukcapeli.pngukcapeli.png

 

A big difference compared to the previous runs which had the -7 centred over E Midlands/ Inland Northern England.

 

For Monday decent agreement between that T storm risk centred SE Wales,

 

This is also the reason that Meto haven't said too much, the areas most likely to be effected not pinned down as of yet (certainly from Tuesday onwards).

Edited July 20, 2013 by Jackone

[nitro_deluxe]

I do reckon we will see something that we could possibly compare to the likes of July 1999 or July 2001. I've seen the charts for those months and this looks very very similar to them. Now those storms, I remember being woken up to sonic booming sounding thunder, and I'm not joking either by saying it seemed like it would never clear off. I mean the activity was constant pretty much all night long until dawn, when even then you could still hear the eerie low sporadic booming in the distance! I was only a little primary schoolboy then, but still I remember it clear as crystal!!

The models seemed to have upgraded the potential this morning keeping that low further West and making it more of a proper cut off low. The longer we can keep it West of us, the better we can maintain the longevity of this very interesting looking activity coming up. 

I honestly wish each and every storm enthusiast the best of luck and for some spectacular lightning shows to be put on display by mother nature

That's the spirit!

Best memories for me? dates hmmm optional...seeing that approaching psychedelic green coloured sky, massively imposing whales mouth, strobe lightning then oomph a curtain of hail, torrents, gunshot thunder, more strobe lightning.

[Bobby]

NMM showing storms breaking out across Wales, SW England, W Midlands on Sunday evening. Then again on Monday

 

 

Then what looks like a major MCS developing across the S on Monday night into Tuesday

 

Edited July 20, 2013 by Bobby

[forecaster]

Probably because it's still a fair way away in forecasting terms still.With further model output over the weekend and into next week, they will likely increase the probability, if of course, it's still being modelled by next week.

 

Yes, on their risk-likelihood matrix they have it at 1/4 for likelihood but 3/4 for impact. That seems a very reasonable way to start things off; not much else they could do really.