Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[Carl46Wrexham]

Wow these charts for Tuesday evening!ukcapeli.pngukcapeli.png

 

Reminiscent of the July 3rd/4th event in 2001....if this turns out like that event was, then we're in line for something special.

[chapmanslade]

The Met Office are useless - the forecasts are always wrong - what a let down - not like it used to be ....

Ooops sorry I'm three days early !

[J10]

NAE places risk of T Storms and associated rainfall further east in the next 48 hrs. [according to 12Hz run]

 

 

Most of this expected midnight -noon Monday.

 

Mesoscale models are going to vary in this treatment considerably over the next few days, and even then they may get it wrong. 

 

Personally I wouldn't mind a storm but would prefer things to stay to stay nice and sunny for most of tomorrow.

 

An open question do you prefer storms in daylight hours or overnight.

 

 

[Nath]

An open question do you prefer storms in daylight hours or overnight.

For me it has to be overnight.  Sky gets lit up dazzling white and thunder is always louder at night for some reason.  And as with most things, in the dark they are more scary!!

[paul m]

For me it has to be overnight.  Sky gets lit up dazzling white and thunder is always louder at night for some reason.  And as with most things, in the dark they are more scary!!

Even more freaky when you are asleep and a huge crack of thunder wakes you up.....

[Supacell]

Day time thunderstorms allow you to observe cloud structures which you wouldn't see at night but I would still say night storms are the best for the simple fact that the lightning appears far more prolific and it creates a much better "atmosphere"

[ChezWeather]

Currently located in Cadgwith, Cornwall.

 

Pretty sure im the most southern person on Netweather at the moment   so i will make sure to keep you all updated with whats going on down here! 

[nitro_deluxe]

Currently located in Cadgwith, Cornwall.

 

Pretty sure im the most southern person on Netweather at the moment   so i will make sure to keep you all updated with whats going on down here!

Haven't we got someone in France lol...bet you're missing home already?

Good luck, sit tight, send a few our way. Ta

May the shows commence.

[AWD]

Currently located in Cadgwith, Cornwall.

Pretty sure im the most southern person on Netweather at the moment so i will make sure to keep you all updated with whats going on down here!

We have members from the Channel Islands on here!

[Sainsbo]

For once it seems like I may be in a fairly good spot to see some thunderstorms!

 

Let's hope the models continue with this trend of widespread storms into next week. It's been too long since we had some descent thunderstorms!

[A.J]

We have members from the Channel Islands on here!

you don't get much further south than Oz land, we have members there as well!.........interesting days (and nights!) ahead for storm fans.......looks very promising at this juncture, but I'm not getting too carried away

Edited July 20, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[AWD]

you don't get much further south than Oz land, we have members there as well

I don't think they are in with much of a chance of thunderstorm development over the next 96 hours though. Edited July 20, 2013 by AWD

[Cheshire Freeze]

NAE places risk of T Storms and associated rainfall further east in the next 48 hrs. [according to 12Hz run]

 

13072212_2012.gif

 

Most of this expected midnight -noon Monday.

 

Mesoscale models are going to vary in this treatment considerably over the next few days, and even then they may get it wrong. 

 

Personally I wouldn't mind a storm but would prefer things to stay to stay nice and sunny for most of tomorrow.

 

An open question do you prefer storms in daylight hours or overnight.

 

Interestingly, the GFS seems to be spotting potential later on tomorrow and through the evening for more southern areas. No mention I can see at this timeframe though in the Metoffice written forecasts.

[A.J]

I don't think they are in with much of a chance of thunderstorm development over the next 96 hours though.

hmm.....big storm clouds are building as I type for their cricket team....lol

[> mark]

hmm.....big storm clouds are building as I type for their cricket team....lol

 

It's a ROOT of a cloud indeed, cracking!

[VillagePlank]

NAE places risk of T Storms and associated rainfall further east in the next 48 hrs. [according to 12Hz run]

 

13072212_2012.gif

 

Most of this expected midnight -noon Monday.

 

Mesoscale models are going to vary in this treatment considerably over the next few days, and even then they may get it wrong. 

 

Personally I wouldn't mind a storm but would prefer things to stay to stay nice and sunny for most of tomorrow.

 

An open question do you prefer storms in daylight hours or overnight.

 

The standard eastward NWM correction?

[samadamsuk]

hey all

 

It does look interesting for tomorrow night to my eye - looks like the gfs & nmm make more of the trough that's modelled on the fax charts for tomorrow, taking precip up through the Bristol channel and over wales through the evening - doesn't looks like there's any jet support, and 700mb lift isn't spectacular (as it is the next night with the prog'd mcs!), but interesting to hear what others make of this -

 

As for the coming week - tantalising synoptics to look forwards to at present - fingers crossed that we head down the route of things being held back west and the continental plume being pulled across the UK, rather than a quick transition to lp parked over us -

 

Sam

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 12z cranks up the CAPE for Monday!

 

Edited July 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[J10]

Interestingly the CAPE potential for Monday is now further east as well according to GFS. But by no means is the main area for Monday settled at this stage, Wales and SW England still very much in the game.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Jackone

[Wilxy]

Interestingly the CAPE potential for Monday is now further east as well according to GFS. But by no means is the main area for Monday settled at this stage, Wales and SW England still very much in the game.

 

The risk of storms looks great with most places at risk of some convective weather, I love when I see the convection, just the build up of CB's and then seeing the horizon go darker, may even go for a little drive if things seem worth it , good luck to everyone next week, looks very interesting, and still remaining warm.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interestingly the CAPE potential for Monday is now further east as well according to GFS. But by no means is the main area for Monday settled at this stage, Wales and SW England still very much in the game.

 

I would suggest that Wales at this point is very much in the game as winds look generally ESE'ly. Anything that forms will be pushed west due to wind vectors.

 

There looks to be an area of slight convergence on Monday afternoon aswell, running across the West Midlands and into Wales

 

[poseidon]

Some bed time reading for next week.....

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/pdf

[Cornishdave]

Hi guys I decided to join this forum after many interesting reads, hoping for some thunderstorms here in Exeter over the forthcoming days, this website is showing a 77% chance which looks promising so fingers crossed

[paul m]

Just watched look North weather and they only mention showers Tue-Wed

[AWD]

Apologies if this is a little IMBY, but I'm really starting to get turned on with what I'm seeing potentially on Tuesday. This is up there with some of the best potential I've seen modelled in recent years.

My city, unusually, is right in the mix of it all too. I can't contain myself any longer!!!!! :)