Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm prolongs the thundery conditions at t+144... 

[Summer Sun]

By next Saturday ECM has the heat re-building for parts of England as the low continues to sit out in the Atlantic and unable to move in so thundery showers remain a threat but out of these it feel very warm and maybe even hot in the SE

 

 

And for reference below is the uppers for Friday

 

 

A good run so far with this "breakdown" staying warm to hot for at least another 6 days and no cool down like certain people keep on saying

 

 

t168 the low is shown to start and move across but it still remains warm for many the SE could see temperatures in the high 20's still

 

 

One positive to take from this is pressure over Greenland isn't shown to get overly high so pressure would have every chance at rebuilding over the UK

Edited July 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[NeilN]

Seeing the latest model reports....I think this *may* stay for the long-run. 2006/2003/1995/1990/1976 vibes again.

[Milhouse]

 

A good run so far with this "breakdown" staying warm to hot for at least another 6 days and no cool down like certain people keep on saying

 

 

I just think its important to clarify there will be a partial cool down from the dizzy heights of 30c every day that we saw last week. Tomorrow we will see the chances of 33c being reached somewhere in the London Area. Thereafter going by the GFS and taking into account the latest ECM we will see temperatures dropping back to the mid 20s with 25-27 being still being achieved over a wide area. Early indications show that this warmth will last into the first part of the weekend with hints of a mini plume on the ECM which could see the high 20s back momentarily.

[Man With Beard]

A real battle between the block and the Atlantic - the models have been playing with this for days now and still can't really resolve how it's going to affect the UK. UKMO, which has led the other models in the last few days, now pulls the low back. I can't see the heat leaving the south-east until Sunday at the earliest - the only thing that's going to stop temperatures rising in this area is prolonged and extensive thunderstorms around mid-week.

 

My hunch, though, is that this incredible run of high temperatures is going to continue. I think it's 17 consecutive days so far of somewhere in the UK exceeding 28C - I predict that this is going to get to 23 days, and maybe more (if it happened, would it be the first time since 1976??)

[Weather Boy]

interesting set of 12z's in that each model has, so far, the same trend to dig the trough further sw. thats not something thats been too obvious on the ens spread so on the one hand, i'm cautious about it but on the other, all three ops so far have gone the same way. lets see if the ens reflect this or will it be something that requires the higher res of the ops to pick up.

Absolutely BA but I don't think it's particularly surprising that the models have moved this way when one looks at other historical set ups of this nature where the models are over progressive pushing the trough east when we have a slumbering Atlantic. I keep referring to 1997 as an example of a trough stalling out west with frontal systems ground to a halt over Wales and the West Country whilst the east basks save for the odd downpour. That could be what we're seeing here although at this stage it's anybody's guess where the system will stall, assuming that is what happens - could be the west of Ireland or even further west.Cooling for sure, but maybe still above average in the east for now, maybe well above.

[Swave Snow]

I just think its important to clarify there will be a partial cool down from the dizzy heights of 30c every day that we saw last week. Tomorrow we will see the chances of 33c being reached somewhere in the London Area. Thereafter going by the GFS and taking into account the latest ECM we will see temperatures dropping back to the mid 20s with 25-27 being still being achieved over a wide area. Early indications show that this warmth will last into the first part of the weekend with hints of a mini plume on the ECM which could see the high 20s back momentarily.

 

 

we already had a major cool down to just 20c yesterday in London, so I don't understand, if we have 27 c like today that will still be very warm to hot, especially if it is humid which it was starting to get today

[Milhouse]

At the moment the GFS and ECM agree on a removal of the warmth towards the end of next weekend with a more typical north/south split following on from that. But in the meantime plenty of summery warmth and storms to enjoy with any arrival of cool/wet weather still a long way off.

[Swave Snow]

In FI, they have always been downgrading the warmth, however, nearer the time they seem to always upgrade.  Also i remember that it was said that things are very uncertain, that is the language the met office have used for the last week now

Edited July 21, 2013 by Swave Snow

[Summer Sun]

I just think its important to clarify there will be a partial cool down from the dizzy heights of 30c every day that we saw last week. Tomorrow we will see the chances of 33c being reached somewhere in the London Area. Thereafter going by the GFS and taking into account the latest ECM we will see temperatures dropping back to the mid 20s with 25-27 being still being achieved over a wide area. Early indications show that this warmth will last into the first part of the weekend with hints of a mini plume on the ECM which could see the high 20s back momentarily.

 

Yes the heat that we'll have tomorrow and Tuesday will go and what will replace is it temperatures still at or above average with the SE possibly hitting the high 20's still at times

 

ECM ends with pressure slowly rising with temperatures around average

 

 

Where FI is tonight is impossible to tell but I'd say anything beyond Thursday is open to debate as know one simply knows where the low is going to end up at for certain

[Summer Sun]

A real battle between the block and the Atlantic - the models have been playing with this for days now and still can't really resolve how it's going to affect the UK. UKMO, which has led the other models in the last few days, now pulls the low back. I can't see the heat leaving the south-east until Sunday at the earliest - the only thing that's going to stop temperatures rising in this area is prolonged and extensive thunderstorms around mid-week.

 

My hunch, though, is that this incredible run of high temperatures is going to continue. I think it's 17 consecutive days so far of somewhere in the UK exceeding 28C - I predict that this is going to get to 23 days, and maybe more (if it happened, would it be the first time since 1976??)

 

By Tuesday, we should hit 18 days at 28°C or more beating 1995’s record of 17 days and we would also be threatening 1976’s record of 22 days

[Captain Shortwave]

By the looks of it conditions for Monday through to Thursday look pretty much a done deal;

• [*]Monday very hot (possibly 34C), thunderstorms isolated in the East but widely breaking out in the west [*]Tuesday still potentially hot with the 16C isotherm clinging to the South East so this could be another 30+ day in some spots if you get some decent amount of sun, looking pretty wet in many areas, fingers crossed for some lively storms. [*]Wednesday and Thursday look cooler but still quite humid with scattered showers, temps 20-26C, possibly higher.
  

Friday into the weekend is worth keeping an eye on and what the trough does, at the moment the South East looks like potentially getting another pulse of warm air, but this could be removed or a more countrywide push of potentially very hot air could hit the uk next weekend. Plenty to keep us glued to the models anyhow and I'm sure many will be looking at the stats tomorrow to see whether we will get the hottest day since 2006 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

 

That's two runs in a row that the ECM has sent lower heights north of Scotland next week - early days of course but next week may not be too bad - temps just above average and mainly sunny, the odd weak front pushing through perhaps - Scotland a bit more changeable though

[Barry12]

Although a cooldown looks likely midweek, it will as others have said still remain warm. The much cooler weather, as it has done for weeks now, remains in FI. Every new run seems to upgrade the warmth and how long it lasts, pressure is also clearly upgraded a lot from last nights 12z ECM to this nights. 

 

ECM 240 doesn't look too bad either

 

[Bristawl Si]

Maybe this week is a 'blip' after all and not a full blown breakdown.....or is it just delaying the 'inevitable'?

It does make me laugh sometimes how these situs continue to confound some members on here time and time again; whether it be winter or summer stubborn blocks can be just that.

I think a breakdown was first modelled for about 10 days ago.....and here we are heading towards the last week of July and even now no one can say for certain whether this week's storms will herald a pattern change into August....or just be a temporary unsettled period.

I love the British weather!

[shaky]

Would you believe it the ecm raises pressure in fi once again!!just when it looked like we were gona see a full on breakdown the models decide to turn it into a blip!!nothings certain yet though!!

[draztik]

Just to clarify, a cool down, to me, is relative to what you're currently experiencing. Therefore, going from 30C to the seasonal average is a cool down in my opinion. The ensembles are still on board, suggesting a return to normal temperatures. The ecm still shows no sign of the Azores taking control, nor does gfs!

Edited July 21, 2013 by draztik

[Man With Beard]

Would you believe it the ecm raises pressure in fi once again!!just when it looked like we were gona see a full on breakdown the models decide to turn it into a blip!!nothings certain yet though!!

Yes, agreed, but to be fair to those who see a cooler outlook, several other op runs have run the Atlantic right through us in FI - I think the key point is that there is about to be a pattern change, but it really isn't clear yet what that will look like, and a "summery" pattern is one of the possibilities.

 

I'm not discounting a return to a UK high either in 10-14 days time - patterns can have a habit of repeating themselves after a short blip - the cold weather of Jan/Feb/Mar/April earlier this year was a bit like that

[J10]

By the looks of it conditions for Monday through to Thursday look pretty much a done deal;

[*]Monday very hot (possibly 34C), thunderstorms isolated in the East but widely breaking out in the west

[*]Tuesday still potentially hot with the 16C isotherm clinging to the South East so this could be another 30+ day in some spots if you get some decent amount of sun, looking pretty wet in many areas, fingers crossed for some lively storms.

[*]Wednesday and Thursday look cooler but still quite humid with scattered showers, temps 20-26C, possibly higher.

Friday into the weekend is worth keeping an eye on and what the trough does, at the moment the South East looks like potentially getting another pulse of warm air, but this could be removed or a more countrywide push of potentially very hot air could hit the uk next weekend. Plenty to keep us glued to the models anyhow and I'm sure many will be looking at the stats tomorrow to see whether we will get the hottest day since 2006 

Looking at the precipitation forecasts, it is looking like the heaviest of the rain over Central and Eastern areas over the next 48 hours,

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/07/21/basis12/ukuk/rsum/13072312_2112.gif

 

Although things can change very quickly in scenarios like this

[Frosty.]

Tomorrow and tuesday will be scorchers with temperatures widely around 30-31 celsius, mid 80's F and across the southeast nearer 34 celsius 93 F, it's the humidity that we will all feel the most, especially at night and this will make it feel a lot hotter than during the heatwave up to now, the increase in humidity is the sign of an explosive atmosphere developing and a few storms will be triggered tomorrow but on the whole it still looks mainly sunny tomorrow with just isolated storms, tuesday and wednesday look a lot more stormy with some big storms and also some longer thundery outbreaks with torrential downpours and flooding is a big threat in the worst affected areas, the problem is we don't know where the worst affected areas will be. The jet stream will be sinking further south and with low pressure replacing our anticyclone through the week ahead it looks like we will all see some useful rain, some will see way too much and others hardly any but the weather pattern will be changing from anticyclonic to cyclonic which indicates a sunshine and showers set up with heavy and thundery showers and temperatures remaining above average and on the warm side, humid too but the big heat is tomorrow, tuesday and to a lesser extent, wednesday, a bit fresher on thursday but a chance of some heat returning to the southeast at the end of the week and generally warm and humid elsewhere. It looks like storm enthusiasts will have tons of fun in the next 7 days and nights, some great youtube videos on the way then..

[phil nw.]

Yes the trend for a stalling upper trough out west continue with little push from the Atlantic.

Of course we will see the frontal systems from that coming through during the next few days bringing those thundery downpours here and there.

The temps look like easing down through the week but it still looks Ok with low 20c's showing later in the week with sunny periods and just a few showers around after the initial area of thundery rain passes through around Tuesday/Weds.

The trend in the means for the following week still show the pattern flattening out as we ease into a more typical westerly pattern.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m9.gif

 

It's too far away to ascertain the detail but as usual in such a pattern the better weather will always be further south -more or less as Milhouse alluded to in his post above.

[draztik]

This from MattHugo81's twitter feed, just for a little perspective..

"For those asking the unsettled conditions will persist. Quite high confidence an unsettled/cyclonic pattern will be sustained into Aug."

I believe this guy is a Meteorologist

[Summer Sun]

Here is the latest Analysis summary from Gibby

 

In Summary, though changes to cooler and more showery weather is still likely to follow the thundery spell of the coming days it will be far from a write off weather wise later in the week as many will maintain a lot of fine and reasonably warm weather with scattered and sometimes heavy showers. Longer term too unsettled weather is likely to figure in the forecasts with these synoptics but there will also be a fair amount of fine and dry weather still with sunny spells which will likely hold emphasis over anything wet.

 

Full Analysis as ever can be found here - http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited July 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

This from MattHugo81's twitter feed, just for a little perspective..

"For those asking the unsettled conditions will persist. Quite high confidence an unsettled/cyclonic pattern will be sustained into Aug."

I believe this guy is a Meteorologist

 

What does that have to do with the models?

 

ECM at 240 has pressure rising again

 

[Bristawl Si]

This from MattHugo81's twitter feed, just for a little perspective.."For those asking the unsettled conditions will persist. Quite high confidence an unsettled/cyclonic pattern will be sustained into Aug."I believe this guy is a Meteorologist

Well through the winter his tweets changed more often than the weather itself!