South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[A.J]

Bit of a surprise this morning to see the main rainband cleared already.Yesterday evening's forecasts showed the rain band hanging around here til early afternoon!Still every cloud.......means our day out wont be spoiled by the rain, bar showers i guess.

yes, and as the warm front starts to crawl away to our north, the increase in humidity is noticable as we start to engage the much warmer & moist air pumping up from the south

[AWD]

I was suprised at the extent of rainfall shown by yesterday evenings TV forecast as there was little to suggest such a prolonged and wet day IMBY.

There is further rainfall on the radar currently over Ireland and West Wales but most of this looks to be north of our region, with perhaps Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire catching some heavy pulses from it's southern flank at times.

Otherwise, a muggy, cloudy (regional variances apply as to how cloudy) day today with sporadic patches of drizzle or light rain dotted around the region.

Edited July 31, 2013 by AWD

[rich1974]

Another cock up by the BBC weather forecast, expecting to wake up to steady rain this morning into this afternoon, it's bone dry here so what happened to our rain, I can understand it being hard to forecast storms but steady rain, come on guys this is about the 3rd cock up in 2 weeks, get it right!!

[AWD]

Another cock up by the BBC weather forecast, expecting to wake up to steady rain this morning into this afternoon, it's bone dry here so what happened to our rain, I can understand it being hard to forecast storms but steady rain, come on guys this is about the 3rd cock up in 2 weeks, get it right!!

I think you need to e-mail the Met Office for answers mate as I doubt you'll get your answers on here.From my opinion, you were never ever ever going to get steady, moderate rainfall at your location. Just sporadic patches of drizzle in a mostly cloudy day.

[MP-R]

A pleasant surprise not to have persistent rain here, in fact at times the sun is trying to break through the clouds and it's feeling noticeable more humid than the last few days. 

 

Shame the models are now hinting at a more September/Octoberish spell of weather into August as I was looking forward to actually getting some sun and heat.

[Freddie123]

Knowing the Met have much more information than is released into the public domains I was rather dismayed at Ian Fergusson's comment right at the end of last nights broadcast about using your fan on Thursday and then returning it, suggested that any warnm or even hot settled weather in the forseeable is not going to happen. Thinking they probably have quite reliable trend analysis going out some weeks into the future. I hope I got the wrong end of the stick from that comment.

 

Also what interested me was a comment on twitter yesterday from another broadcaster suggesting over the next few days a significant Sahara dust cloud was going to move west across the atlantic towards the Carribean and the impact on the hurricane season. Sort of suggested it would suppress it but then I would have thought dust in the air would give moisture something to 'cling onto'. I wish I had more knoweldge at times! lol, at least the sunsets will be spectacular.

 

F

Edited July 31, 2013 by Freddie123

[egret]

Why is that during the winter the snow is always north of the M4 and yet in the summertime the rain appears to always forecast south of the M4 corridoor?

Grrr etc

it changes when the clocks go back!

[wimblettben]

Its been overcast all day here with occassional bursts of drizzle.

 

This is mega boring compared to what it was like on Monday.

[A.J]

Its been overcast all day here with occassional bursts of drizzle.

 

This is mega boring compared to what it was like on Monday.

things may be starting to look up a bit Ben......here's the latest sat24 visible imagery.....a few holes starting to appear in the cloud bank over the SW and with the convective forecasts issued by the various agencies today, we might be in with an outside sniff of something thundery, you never know!

 

[wimblettben]

Still no clearing of this cloud yet.

Was expecting some sunshine by this afternoon.

[wimblettben]

things may be starting to look up a bit Ben......here's the latest sat24 visible imagery.....a few holes starting to appear in the cloud bank over the SW and with the convective forecasts issued by the various agencies today, we might be in with an outside sniff of something thundery, you never know!

 

image2.png

3 hours after this and still no clearance of this cloud.

 

I must admit even I am suprised that this hasn't happend looking at that satellite image.

[Bristawl Si]

Been to Noahs Ark near Failand, with the grandson today and got caught in a couple of beefy showers. Windy but warm as well.

Certainly no washout, which was a bonus, after viewing the forecast yday eve.

[wimblettben]

Think the clouds going to be with us for most of this evening now.

 

It still hasn't cleard up.

[MP-R]

I hope it has disappeared by tomorrow morning! Still feeling warm via dampness not properly warm.

[katemart]

Haven't seen any storms yet this summer. However absolutely delighted by the forecast as we are all heading off to Wickham Festival tomorrow - not too hot after Thurs and NO RAIN  

[wimblettben]

There is drizzle here again now.

 

This was not forecast at all.

[AWD]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

Universally dry, warm and sunny after any early remaining cloud readily burns away.

Aside from some early cloud around the Dorset coast, along with some sea mist around the Cornish coast, it will be dry, clear blue skies for many with just the odd fair weather cloud developing locally and it will feel very warm, perhaps hot in inland areas.

Temperature predictions are one of the more challenging aspects of weather forecasting for me personally, as they can vary with local nuances, urban heating, angle of the sun and other local variances.

Typically speaking however, I see things broadly as;

- the hottest temperatures being in inland Hampshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire where they will peak widely at 29c - 32c.

- Wiltshire, inland Dorset and Gloucestershire as well as Bath and Bristol seeing temperatures peak roughly at 27c - 30c

- Somerset and inland Devon will see temperatures peak at 24c - 28c

- Cornwall will see slightly lower values inland of around 21c - 23c

- Coastal areas will, as ever be cooler than inland areas but even on many of our regions coastal resorts I expect temperatures to get into the low 20c's with the exception of the Cornish coast where high teens might be as high as it gets.

Enjoy guys and girls, it's going to be a belter tomorrow.

Edited July 31, 2013 by AWD

[Sainsbo]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

image.jpg

Universally dry, warm and sunny after any early remaining cloud readily burns away.

Aside from some early cloud around the Dorset coast, along with some sea mist around the Cornish coast, it will be dry, clear blue skies for many with just the odd fair weather cloud developing locally and it will feel very warm, perhaps hot in inland areas.

Temperature predictions are one of the more challenging aspects of weather forecasting for me personally, as they can vary with local nuances, urban heating, angle of the sun and other local variances.

Typically speaking however, I see things broadly as;

- the hottest temperatures being in inland Hampshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire where they will peak widely at 29c - 32c.

- Wiltshire, inland Dorset and Gloucestershire as well as Bath and Bristol seeing temperatures peak roughly at 27c - 30c

- Somerset and inland Devon will see temperatures peak at 24c - 28c

- Cornwall will see slightly lower values inland of around 21c - 23c

- Coastal areas will, as ever be cooler than inland areas but even on many of our regions coastal resorts I expect temperatures to get into the low 20c's with the exception of the Cornish coast where high teens might be as high as it gets.

Enjoy guys and girls, it's going to be a belter tomorrow.

 

Great post AWD, I always look forward to your input.

 

 

Been relatively cloudy all day here, but when the cloud broke, temperatures got up to around 22C. It will be nice to see some sun again tomorrow.

[wimblettben]

Have woken up to a completely different scene to yesterday.

 

The suns out with only a few isolated bits of cloud with light winds and temperatures already at 18C.

[Sainsbo]

Hot and sunny here, and feeling very very hot. Currently 27.4C out, with a DP of 20.5C

[wimblettben]

I don't know if anyone else has spotted this yet, but here I can see some unstable looking mid level clouds to my south. I think they are known as Altocumulus Castellenous or something.

 

I wasn't expecting to see these types of clouds around today so I wonder if this maybe a good sign for something thundery later somewhere.

[AWD]

I don't know if anyone else has spotted this yet, but here I can see some unstable looking mid level clouds to my south. I think they are known as Altocumulus Castellenous or something.I wasn't expecting to see these types of clouds around today so I wonder if this maybe a good sign for something thundery later somewhere.

There won't be any convective or thundery activity today mate, there is a Cap in the mid levels;Inhibiting anything more than a few of the fairweather type clouds you describe from developing. Hot and sunny is the theme for the whole of today, with just patches of fairweather cloud as you describe developing.

[A.J]

lovely and warm, already 77F in the shade....time to crack open the BBQ & beers!

[ARTDEMOLE]

Another hot day.. Blue sky  some cloud floating by. Only a light breeze. .Humidity  56%. Pressure  1009.3c.  27c.  Hotter on the patio at 19.2c...Too hot to sit on patio bench...23.8c  Indoors....

[gottolovethisweather]

More floccus type clouds here. Possibly a precursor for some overnight activity, well at least the Beeb forecasts suggested the chance of something happening. If anybody has some CAPE or LI charts out to tomorrow morning, maybe that is where the likelihood of Thundery showers exists.