Convective / Storm Discussion - 28th July onwards 2013

[PMPhotography]

Ooof, how close! The storms in a line from Hull just clipping us. Just saw some great rotation which i'll post a video of soon. Great to watch, Hopefully the other storms lined up will hit proper. 

[Summer of 95]

Wasn't great here today. One immense downpour about 2.30ish but with only distant thunder. Not enough to lift me out of the NSC. Think I must be the only person left in there!

 

Something interesting filled the W horizon at around 6ish but it sailed NNE to the W of me. No thunder heard and no rainfall registered but I saw an interesting lowering of the cloud base and a very! distant flash of lightning. Must have been those ones that pushed out of Wales.

Everyone in Shrewsbury is still very much in. Nothing overhead since August 2011

[Darren Bown]

Saw some interesting convection as the last row of showers passed over, with clouds drawing upwards into the leading edge very quickly.

[James86]

Heavy cell about to hit southampton.... And I'm here waiting! ABOUT TIME!

[Cyclonic]

veryyy dark here now, clouds looking ugly

[tollgateiow]

Just had a really good thunderstorm here in Freshwater on the IOW, several forks and overhead thunder plus torrential rain!

[Cyclonic]

nothing here in sandown yet, but can hear the distant rumbles, freshwater stole it lol

[AWD]

nothing here in sandown yet, but can hear the distant rumbles, freshwater stole it lol

Looks to be skimming up the western side of the Island.

[Cyclonic]

indeed it is, but there is another cell passing a bit closer soon to hit

 

Edit..

 

Dayum it looks ugly towards southampton/portsmouth, hope you catch something james

Edited July 28, 2013 by Cyclonic

[Snowshine]

Yes, A Shower is finally on its way to my area, it had better be good and come with thunder and lightning, preferably CG!

 

Edit: The shower bought rain, no lightning, no thunder heard, dissapointing!

Edited July 28, 2013 by Cumulonimbus123

[Gorky]

Ooof, how close! The storms in a line from Hull just clipping us. Just saw some great rotation which i'll post a video of soon. Great to watch, Hopefully the other storms lined up will hit proper. 

 

Had some nice little structure going there for a bit didn't it Shame my camera was at home!

[James86]

Kicking off between in the fareha, area seen a few bolts

[robt]

Ooof, how close! The storms in a line from Hull just clipping us. Just saw some great rotation which i'll post a video of soon. Great to watch, Hopefully the other storms lined up will hit proper. 

The ones near Derby may hit you, they're looking like they'll just miss me to the NW on current track.

[Cyclonic]

Something is going on above me, the skies are black, and the lights have dimmed twice now, but can hear nothing..back door open, dogs wont go out lol..Fingers crossed.

 

EDIT

The heavens have just opened up and lightning now

Edited July 28, 2013 by Cyclonic

[SalopWatcher]

Well got the first rain of the day now finally but stood outside for ages not even a rumble to go with it

been some cool cloudscapes tonight though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking very potent in the Southampton and Solent area at the minute. Glad to see them getting some storms with the Channel not being a storm killer for once! 

I'm actually keeping my eye on that lot going through there at the minute, as they look like they could have my name on them ! Hopefully they'll maintain their intensity.

[TropicThunder]

Just had several forks of IC lightning from the cell passing to the east, quite spectacular with the darkening skies. Barely audible thunder though.

[Thunder Snow]

Wow alot of rain here in Carlisle, and very intense. According to the EA they are concerned for all 3 rivers? Is more rain forecast

[Cyclonic]

its absolutely hammering it down, but only seen 2 flashes of lightning and only one rumble of thunder.

[PMPhotography]

Filmed this about an hour ago. This was part of  the band of storms stretching up from Hull. Unfortunately they stayed off the coast and just missed us but caught a few rumbles and this cloud formation which was rotating before it collapsed and flattened out. 

Any ideas what it was? 

 

 

 

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

Sharp upper longwave trough continues to pivot and migrate northeastwards across the British Isles on Monday, cooling the mid and upper levels. A series of shortwave troughs embedded in the flow will also move around the base of the upper trough, while a strengthening jet moves across southern Britain during the second half of the forecast period, ahead of a new Atlantic frontal wave.

 

Discussion:

Showers will be ongoing through the early hours of Monday as a couple of shortwave troughs pivot northeastwards across the British Isles. Through Monday daytime, diurnal heating accompanied by the progress of the sharp upper trough and cooling aloft will generate 500-800 J/kg CAPE widely, and locally in excesss of 1000 J/kg. Consequently, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, and with converging winds inland (such as SW peninsula through south Midlands towards The Wash/northern East Anglia) will allow showers/thunderstorms to organise into distinct lines/bands at times, with shower training over similar areas likely.
The most active thunderstorms are likely to be mid afternoon onwards through the evening, particularly across eastern England where the best parcel depths are expected (hence the MDT here), although here most thunderstorms will tend to decay by 18z-20z, although continuing to remain active across the North Sea overnight. Several models simulate a few convergence zones inland across the Scottish Highlands in particular, so this area and environs likely to be aided by orographic forcing have been including in a MDT for a heightened chance of lightning activity.

The approach of the jet and exiting of the upper trough is likely to lead to reduced lightning chances across W/SW Ireland through the afternoon, and SW England by late afternoon/early evening - hence it is questionable whether to include these areas in a SLGT given the reduced instability during peak period for daytime heating. However, have kept the SLGT here for the possibility of showers during the morning and early afternoon turning locally thundery. Fewer/weaker showers are expected across SE England due to the short land track.

Given dry and cool air aloft, and sufficient instability, hail between 1.5-2.0cm in diameter is possible in any stronger cores, particularly across eastern areas. PWAT in mid 20s mm and shower training may result in some locally large rainfall totals.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/263

 

[James86]

Appeared to have stopped now from my view north in hedge end looking as far as Winchester

[Thunder Snow]

Hope we see some thunder from these showers

[Harry]

I thought I saw lightning way off to my SW about 10 mins ago...

[The watcher]

After today's closest shave of the summer so far tomorrow looks odds on for my first overhead storm. Although today I must have heard at least 30 rumbles of thunder.

UKASF has me under the North Ireland moderate and looking at charts convergence West to East and -4 LI with 1000j/kg of cape. Surely.