Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[ANYWEATHER]

Just registered here,

Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?

Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

A Big welcome to you from all of us at Netweather! Nothing just at the moment for heatwave conditions just some settled .sunnier conditions spreading North from Sunday! Just follow the forum, but don't get sucked into anything past T+120  

[Methuselah]

Just registered here,

Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?

Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

Welcome aboard, Joe!

[Bradowl]

Just registered here,Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

 

Same here, I work in a factory and last month was extremely hot to work in.

 

I dont think we will see anything as hot next week though, just a little on warm side for a few days before autumn cool down begins towards end of month. 

[legritter]

Just registered here,

Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?

Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

Welcome to NET  Weather ,yes a lively forum and sometimes a real rollercoaster ,filled with many interesting things Meteorological wise .great fun come late autumn and winter ,back on topic and still signs on modells of a real possible warm up next week but still at this range how long this lasts is a hard call at this range ,positioning of high pressure at the v long range will be critical especially how it orientates and either pulls in continental air ,atlantic sourced and many other combinations .but lets hope the dice falls in our favour again as today was for me more like an october day and we still have bbq meat in freezer so bring it on .

[draztik]

Gfs 12z and ecm 12z appear to be warm outliers, as they do not have ensemble support as evidence of an incoming heatwave!

Edited August 14, 2013 by draztik

[bradymk]

Gfs 12z and ecm 12z appear to be warm outliers, as they do not have ensemble support as evidence of an incoming heatwave!

This could be because the mean has been "diluted" due to some cooler ensemble members and some warmer ones averaging the mean. That being said, although it looks like it will become more settled during next week, whether it will turn into another hot spell of weather is yet to be decided. There are a few ways that heat could be tapped into, GEM is an example of one of the hot outcomes. Phew scorcher!  Todays runs have certainly increased the chances of the high building in and even maybe drifting to the east but i still wouldn't rule out just a surface high yet, few more solid runs needed.

[Costa Del Fal]

Gfs 12z and ecm 12z appear to be warm outliers, as they do not have ensemble support as evidence of an incoming heatwave!

At that far out, charts become very 'averaged' out due to cooler members. You will always get that. Hence the mean will never look like the perfect representation of the OP. If that is your approach, every OP will look like an outlier.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My god, look at Frosty's post for some warmth!! Just looking at it makes me sweat haha. What a way to get me started before Ibiza in September

[jonlu69]

My god, look at Frosty's post for some warmth!! Just looking at it makes me sweat haha. What a way to get me started before Ibiza in September

 

Snap matey. Going out to Egypt (hopefully !!) in 2 weeks, need to work on the base tan . Love Frosty's updates.

[Polar Maritime]

Snap matey. Going out to Egypt (hopefully !!) in 2 weeks, need to work on the base tan . Love Frosty's updates.

 

I'd keep away from Cairo.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Snap matey. Going out to Egypt (hopefully !!) in 2 weeks, need to work on the base tan . Love Frosty's updates.

Thats it, get that pre tan started! Or refreshed a little from July! And yeah, they are very detailed and thrilling to observe and read. 

Will you be posting for winter Frosty? I.E getting the party ramped up for roaring Easterlies ?

[forecaster]

At that far out, charts become very 'averaged' out due to cooler members. You will always get that. Hence the mean will never look like the perfect representation of the OP. If that is your approach, every OP will look like an outlier.

 

Not "always" the case. It's quite possible for the deterministic to be in the middle of the pack of ensemble members, in fact that is very typical. If the ensemble mean is similar to the deterministic, it's a good sign of predictability. At the moment that's not the case. The deterministic is not a huge outlier, but it is relying on a very particular upper flow setting up.

A recent case of the EC det being a huge outlier was the event on 2nd August. Event? What event? Exactly. It got to about 25/26C, but there was a run where the deterministic wanted 850hPa temperatures of 24C touching the south coast. The ensemble proved a much better forecast.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I think one thing also needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that the ECM op has churned out near enough the same solution the last 3 runs by placing heights just to our east. It's showing some decent consistency which given the position of the heights I would say there is a good chance of it verifying. The GFS ens are also not far off this solution by day 8.

ECM is probably about to backed by the latest gfs run given it's day 6 chart

High resolution is fantastic yet again 

Edited August 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Thats it, get that pre tan started! Or refreshed a little from July! And yeah, they are very detailed and thrilling to observe and read. Will you be posting for winter Frosty? I.E getting the party ramped up for roaring Easterlies ?

Yep I post all year, thanks for your comments, much appreciated. The weather looks like giving us the perfect ending to the best summer since 2006. Edited August 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the models still going strong for a potential warm up next week

GFS

 

GFS ens

 

 

GEM

 

 

UKMO again is the least good of the 3 out at the moment

 

But even that would be an improving picture.

All is looking good overall.

Edited August 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Parsons]

so it looks like a potential plume coming up from the south at the end of next week?

[mushymanrob]

Now where we these charts at the start of August, instead of all this precious time being wasted!

 

 

 

yes i agree, the best of any potential heat has been lost. it would have been nice imho to have julys heatwave continue into early august as opposed to this cooler changable few weeks. the lilies/buddleia will be past there best by mid next week, the sun is noticably lower in the sky, i prefer the best summer weather in the height of summer...

 

however, a decent settled/warm/sunny spell is always welcome and as the bbc are now informing us theres high pressure building next week, it has to be a cert (even though theres not complete anomaly agreement, which is a worry).

 

so it looks like the settled spell of anticyclonic driven weather is pretty certain, but as has been pointed out, the detail isnt. current models suggest it will become gradually warmer, hot even, with temps expected to hit the mid to upper 20's c.... but... that is still 6-7 days away (gfs 6, ecm 7 generally for southern uk) and it all depends upon the exact centre and orientation of the high.

 

the previously predicted shortwave appears to have gone this morning, or downgraded to a cloudy spoiler..

 

so, in all, its looking pretty likely that we (a large section of the uk) are in for the best august spell of summery weather for ten years.. (ok, the southeast hasnt fared to badly sometimes).

so it looks like a potential plume coming up from the south at the end of next week?

 

yes, theres some very hot uppers expected (but this could change), but atm theres little sign of a thundery breakdown. (normally associated with a plume).

[William of Walworth]

Truly delighted by next week's inreasingly HP-dominated prospects and by the fact that such a wide synoptic consensus has built for them. My birthday's Sunday 25th -- shorts and t-shirt time by then, according to most current model output ..!

 

Could really have done with all this starting today though -- the coming weekend risks washout type conditions at times, even as far S as the SW. Time to get the waterproofs/mudproof boots out! That's the UK summer carousel for you ...

 

(back after Monday, at the start of the late summer party!!)

Edited August 15, 2013 by William of Walworth

[bradymk]

Slight downgrade this morning in longetivity of high pressure. However take a look at the GEFS control, this is how I think it may eventual pan out with the initial high pressure building in and then moving off to the east before another area of high pressure ridges northwards into the UK.

[draztik]

ecm not the model for those living in the NW this morning.. Especially as the run continues! Also from t240 to 360 on the eps control model, shows hp all but gone, with areas of low pressure and associated showers/rain, for all areas of the UK.

[shedhead]

Still some disagreement this morning between the big two, but taking a blend of GFS/ECM pressure rises across England and Wales through the middle of next week, whilst Scotland and NI remain quite mixed. Later in the week most parts of England and Wales become warm/very warm, especially in the south, but temps across Scotland and N Ireland remain close to average..then during the weekend and into the following week it turns cooler for all as wind move around to the north or northeast. 

Any widespread heatwave looks as far away as ever this morning, with the odds <5%, but a few warm/very warm days do look likely for much of England and Wales later next week. Elsewhere temps should be near or a little above average 

Edited August 15, 2013 by shedhead

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ecm not the model for those living in the NW this morning.. Especially as the run continues! Also from t240 to 360 on the eps control model, shows hp all but gone, with areas of low pressure and associated showers/rain, for all areas of the UK.

The models are showing a lovely sunny spell/warm blip.. That who knows how long will last.. After the weekend rain hopefully your rain "obsession" will be met then you can enjoy the sunny weather with everybody!

Edited August 15, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue
removed what could be seen as personal...

[shedhead]

ecm not the model for those living in the NW this morning.. Especially as the run continues! Also from t240 to 360 on the eps control model, shows hp all but gone, with areas of low pressure and associated showers/rain, for all areas of the UK.

 

Indeed...that little midweek feature has come and gone on both models across the last 2 or 3 days, but that ECM chart looks very similar to Tues 06GFS. The 00 GFS also carries it, but much farther to the NW, whilst UKMO keep it down by the Azores. 

 

 

Think this ECM run will prove a outlier in the mid and consequently the latter part of the run to be honest, but you wouldn't rule out the 06 GFS reinstating that little feature for the west - just to add to the confusion/frustration...

Edited August 15, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is fantastic again this morning, persistent azores ridging throughout and very warm across the south of the uk, pleasantly warm to rather warm for the north, and lots of strong sunshine to look forward to from early next week onwards, temperatures across the southern half of the uk look like soaring into the mid to high 20's celsius from the middle of next week which is very good for late august, nearer low to mid 20's celsius the further north you go, all in all it's great, there is a suggestion that eventually the warmth and increasing sultry feel will trigger a few thunderstorms but the main emphasis is on sunny and very warm weather next week. 

 

In the meantime, today is warm and muggy with warm rain and some heavy bursts at times but some sunny spells here and there, by tomorrow it will be cooler, fresher and brighter with sunny spells and just a few showers, saturday looks like becoming wet and windy for all areas by the end of the day, worst the further northwest you are, the southeast staying driest for longest and then sunday it's an improving picture as the winds ease and residual showery rain eases with sunny spells becoming more widespread, then next week it will get warmer and warmer each day, especially from midweek onwards, let the good times roll..

[Summer Sun]

The ensembles speak for themselves this morning it turns extremely dry again from Monday onwards and the uppers head above average

 

 

Edited August 15, 2013 by Summer Sun