Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Frosty.]

Yet more concrete evidence for a much warmer and anticyclonic spell developing next week which looks like persisting well beyond the august bank holiday weekend, we have just had a stunning gefs 00z and ecm 00z ens mean and now a glorious gfs 06z op run.. the met office have had their say,  The latest met office update is about as good as we could hope for at this range, I fully expect the updates to become even more summery as we get into next week, similar to the july spell actually, anyway here is a snippet of what they are currently saying :-

 

The midweek period (wed/thurs) Many parts will enjoy light winds and sunny spells, the best of the sunshine across the south & east and turning warm or locally very warm, this sounds very good already and I expect upgrades with heat warnings etc.etc as time goes on as the anticyclonic spell sets in for a long while. The north & west of the uk will likely have some teething problems at least for the first half of next week but then joining in the fun from around thursday but england and wales look good from tuesday onwards and increasingly good from then on.

 

This chart is a very healthy looking chart for the 26th august and it will probably improve even more as time goes on, it's all looking peachy for the southern half of the uk

Edited August 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[Buzzit]

Hi All avid model / weather watchers.... I believe the pesky shortwave is being overplayed by the models and Met is being overly cautious with positioning and respective influence. Fair play to the Met, I would do the same if I was them for safety sake, but my hunch is high pressure residing over most of the UK +120 through to the end of the month.. I love super hot weather and I love snow, and I refuse to be cautious this time around ! Also Looking forward to an exceptional September for most of the UK.

[lorenzo]

Hello,

Sorry if I'm posting this request in the wrong thread?

Posters often put up the monthly NH composites for MJO phases here.  My link for these now goes to "American Weather"

 

As anyone got a new link for these monthly phase composites please?

 

Thanks

Hello Len, 

The composites are still available for free whilst other model information on American Wx has been pay walled.

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[Frosty.]

I think that is just one view of what may happen post the T+120 Fax frosty. You could be right but I would think the odds, at the moment, are about evens for what you suggest, no higher in spite of what GFS especially keeps showing. The anomaly charts do suggest a spell (how long is a spell?) of ridging may affect much of the UK, but I doubt it will be more than 3-4 days based on what I have seen from any and I mean any model over the past week, GFS, ECMWF, UK Met synoptic outputs and the anomaly outputs, NOAA, ECMWF-GFS and NAEFS.

Interesting for any of us to theorise and it will be interesting to see what the last 7 days or so of August do actually give all parts of the UK.

Hi John, I seem to remember the met office were ultra cautious last month in the build up to that incredible july spell and the updates then became better and better, the same things are happening again, cautious at this range but i'm really enthused by the recent and current ens mean from both gefs & ecm, I just think that it's like a rolling snowball effect, it will just get bigger and bigger.

[Milhouse]

Here are the predicted temperatures for this time next week. After a 3 week absence we would be back into the mid to high 20s. Every chance of 30c being reached again before the end of Summer.

 

 

 

 

 

Both the GEFS and ECM means at day 10 stil showing high pressure in control over the UK.

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I love this from the GFS control, a reminder that Autumn is just around the corner :-)

 

 

Edited August 16, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[snowking]

It might just be worth holding off on temperature projections until we get a clearer idea of the actual surface flow, with that shortwave causing some serious issues akin to something of a winter-time drama on here.

 

The current ensemble mean projections for London:

 

 

Certainly pleasant, but nothing absolutely exceptional showing as of yet away from the operationals.

 

ECM ensemble mean pretty similar:

 

 

The general rule of thumb I use is that the ensemble means tend to underestimate the eventual maximum temperatures by around 2-3c, but there is no guarantee of this always being the case.

 

So for now face value outputs suggest warm, but not exceptionally so (which I must say suits me just fine).

 

Dependant upon the eventual orientation and location of the shallow trough to the SW in the longer timeframe, this could well change.

 

SK

[Captain Shortwave]

I love this from the GFS control, a reminder that Autumn is just around the corner :-)

 

gens-0-1-276.png

 

gens-0-0-264.png

Oh lovely that chart gives me persistent rain for days. 

Grey and cold, I don't quite see how this is more interesting than sunny and warm.

Each to their own I guess 

Also hats off to the GFS in this case for perhaps the most unrealistic evolution I've ever seen

Edit - I love how the 06Z ensembles are now coming out on meteociel, a bit late methinks 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oh lovely that chart gives me persistent rain for days. 

Grey and cold, I don't quite see how this is more interesting than sunny and warm.

Each to their own I guess 

Also hats off to the GFS in this case for perhaps the most unrealistic evolution I've ever seen

Edit - I love how the 06Z ensembles are now coming out on meteociel, a bit late methinks 

 

 

Well they say there is more out than in lol

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the 06z are coming out and well

i

Pretty darn good

As snowking says, this isn't going to be the level we saw in july and the very beginning of August, but still very good temperatures (mid perhaps high 20s) widespread.

Not bad for late August at all.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Scorcher]

 

 

Pretty darn good 

As snowking says, this isn't going to be the extreme heat we saw in July, but still very good temperatures (mid perhaps high 20s) widespread.

Not bad for late August at all.

 

Thing is for most of us in July it wasn't 'extreme heat' most of the time- in the South East there were a few days of 30C+ but not a huge number. This setup for next week doesn't look too dissimilar to much of July to me. It was more consistently very warm/hot for most in July- for example here we only had 1 day in July over 30C (and one on August 1st), and lots of days in the 25-28C range.

[mushymanrob]

july extreme heat?... thought the hottest day was aug 1st! :lol:

[Frosty.]

july extreme heat?... thought the hottest day was aug 1st!

yeah mushy it only got to 33 celsius 91 F in July

[Milhouse]

Somewhere around Worcester seems best placed to see the highest temperatures late on next week going by the GFS 12z. Uppers of 16c arriving in the far SW next Thursday.

 

A light easterly drifting in but with sea temperatures almost at their highest it wont be chilly in the east.

 

[Milhouse]

The UKMO makes the northern half of the UK wait longer for the arrival of the warmth. Meanwhile for areas south of the Midlands it would begin to turn very warm

 

[cheese]

yeah mushy it only got to 33 celsius 91 F in July

Not here it didn't!

[J10]

Very few comments on the 12Hz so far.

 

Not bad in the high res, goes a bit off the rails into FI / low res.

[shaky]

After looking at the latest gfs 12 and ukmo 12z it most certanly is looking like we are heading for a sunny warm settled spell of weatherand could last for a considerable amount of time!!forget about the shortwave all its doing is delaying the inevitable really!!now all we need is a good ecmwf and that will confirm probably the best summer we have had in a number of years!!

[draztik]

Gfs12z more akin to what the ecm monthly update showed last night. So, a warm up coming by mid week, lasts about 5 or so days, then its cooler temps until the end of August, with another brief warm up by the end of the month.

[forecaster]

How do you know that they won't happen? 

 

No one knows of course

But the idea is that any given ensemble member should be worse than the control run. This is because you're intentionally making your starting point less accurate. Ensemble members are valuable when taken together as a family, not cherry picked. This is why I don't see the point in making individual members available - the ECMWF clustering method is a sounder idea if you want to go along such lines. 

[Frosty.]

Not here it didn't!

ditto but it did in the southeast corner, it might do again by the end of next week.......

[bubsy83]

First time post.

Frosty you are the man, informative posts and you seem to be a half full glass kind of guy, only been on here for about a month but mst of you posts seem to be spot on, keep it up mate.

Cheers

[cheese]

ditto but it did in the southeast corner, it might do again by the end of next week.......

I love how you're so optimistic about such hot temperatures occurring, even if its nowhere near your back yard!

[Frosty.]

First time post.

Frosty you are the man, informative posts and you seem to be a half full glass kind of guy, only been on here for about a month but mst of you posts seem to be spot on, keep it up mate.

Cheers

Thanks bubsy83 and welcome to netweather

I love how you're so optimistic about such hot temperatures occurring, even if its nowhere near your back yard!

yep i'm just happy for those that get the best weather, i'm not into the imby thing, 

[Frosty.]

Let's look at the Gfs 12z operational run in the high res first ( the best part) it is actually excellent because hotter uppers (T850 hPa) pushes into the south of the uk thanks to the positioning and orientation of the anticyclone, so we could expect temperatures across the southern half of the uk to soar into the high 20's celsius across southern/se england, as high as the mid 80's F and feeling even hotter as it becomes more sultry, however, that increased humidity would enable T-Storms to break out and also a few potent storms could drift up from france towards the southeast, but for most of the uk, the emphasis next week is on increasingly sunny and warm weather (mid to high 20's celsius range) initially across the south but spreading north to all areas by midweek or soon after, the end of next week is the peak period of the heat on this run when temps could be pushing close to 90F in the southeast before the anticyclone splits and part of it retreats into scandinavia with the other cell pulling back towards the azores with a complex trough to the east of greenland and across iceland slowly swinging southeastwards and introducing a much cooler and more unsettled blip from the north but it doesn't last long and high pressure builds in again from the southwest across southern uk but the north remains more unsettled and consequently cooler but it warms up again across the south, I would treat most of the low res with a high degree of suspicion considering what the ens mean is showing and the latest met office update.