Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[draztik]

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

[Tamara]

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

 If that is a cool outlook then I wonder what a warm one is? Temperatures on that chart could be in the mid 20's celcius across much of southern UK and into the low 20's in parts of the north as well

 

As snowking alluded to, its not a heatwave of July proportions, but the ECM coming out now shows the sort of temperatures indicated as above throughout the output so far - at least from early to midweek after a slightly cooler weekend and start to next week. Decently warm for sure and good enough for most for the second half of August

 

ECM ends with the warmth increasing for much of the UK and probably quite humid too with a risk of thundery showers perhaps for parts of the south, and south west more especially

 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

 If that is a cool outlook then I wonder what a warm one is? Temperatures on that chart could be in the mid 20's celcius across much of southern UK and into the low 20's in parts of the north as well

 

As snowking alluded to, its not a heatwave of July proportions, but the ECM coming out now shows the sort of temperatures indicated as above throughout the output so far - at least from early to midweek after a slightly cooler weekend and start to next week. Decently warm for sure and good enough for most for the second half of August

Yes tamara, if that's a cool outbreak, bring it on, looks great to me, mid 20's c is perfect temp.

[J10]

As long as we get a decent warm sunny spell, Id be happy, not to fussed on any heatwave. 

 

Into the weekend and it seems the  over 10c 850hpa expands over Southern Briatain, so certainly warm/very warm. for these areas.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

 

Also very much looking towards the South West as well, will that Low Presure stay away.

Edited August 16, 2013 by J10

[Man With Beard]

Personally I still think next week's mini low is being overdone - I can't ever recall a low deeping like that in summer with pressure high. I think GFS will be closest to the mark

[Frosty.]

Personally I still think next week's mini low is being overdone - I can't ever recall a low deeping like that in summer with pressure high. I think GFS will be closest to the mark

hot or very warm then, it's win win either way, next week looks like becoming sunny and warm or very warm, magic.

[ANYWEATHER]

Nothing clear cut for next weeks weather....Now, it seems! Ecm really does not hold promise of any longevity of high pressure. Reading between the lines though between the gfs and ecm  a lot of good weather for many next week away from the north, but as for detail, forget it...  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

As long as them 20c uppers remain over Ibiza, I couldn't care less, although I'd like to see them lower uppers loop round down by Portugal through the Strait of Gibraltar to give some classic Mediterranean MCS's which will actually mean business while I'm there! 

Summer is coming into a close now, but who knows what may happen! All I know is, we are pretty much past the best time for proper heat now. Not that it won't happen though, as even in October, we saw 30c back in 2011. 

More runs will be needed to justify the outcome of these next 2 weeks, so I'm still holding my breath. 

[Frosty.]

Well in my opinion the Ecm 12z is fantastic tonight, high pressure domination after the weekend until the end of the run and beyond... and as good a bank holiday weekend as we could hope for with temps well into the 20's celsius, mid to high 20's c further south/se and low to mid 20's c for central & northern uk, these charts look superb, if this verified it would be an increasingly wonderful week ahead after the recent unsettled cooler blip and tomorrows wind and rain, lots of sunshine and the warmth increasing, what could be better in late summer..BANK 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[Methuselah]

Aye, there is an ever-increasing number of stonkers coming out just now. I hope I've not put the kibosh on it all! 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

sensational ecm 12z with gorgeous summer weather on the way for the vast majority as we head through next week,]

BANK

[Wilxy]

Looking forward to the GFS 18z, hopefully we see some great consistency

[ANYWEATHER]

sensational ecm 12z with gorgeous summer weather on the way for the vast majority as we head through next week,]

BANK

Yep totally agree. plenty of warmth along with some thundery downpours!!   

[The Northern Ramper]

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

Under attack?

Cool?

You are clearly misleading people with your chart descriptions in my opinion to get a reaction, I hope the forum mods have seen enough now to know this is the case.

[Summer Sun]

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

 

+8 to +10 uppers are hardly cool are they? lets be honest

 

I'm sorry but I can't see anything "cool" on tonight's ECM run temperature would be into the 20's widely maybe even towards the high 20's in some spots

 

[Frosty.]

Following tonights wonderful Ecm 12z comes another superb run, this time it's the GEFS 12z mean, absolute stonker with high pressure becoming dominant for possibly the next few weeks, next week the mean shows warmer continental air coming around the underside of the anticyclone to the east and then up into the uk with temps into the 80's F for the south of the uk and mid 70's F further north, it's a great looking outlook tonight on the gfs 12 high res and early low res, the complete ecm 12z with power to add and now the wonderful gefs 12z mean, becoming dry, sunnier and very warm as next week goes on, first in the south and then all areas by midweek. To be honest, this should not be so surprising because the ens mean charts have been flagging this settled and warm spell for days and days, summery weather is on the way back folks..enjoy.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

I would happily take the GEFS 12z control run too, it becomes very warm or hot, especially in the south & east and even by september 1st it's hot in the south, it's also a generally settled run with lots of sunshine but a rather higher risk of a scattering of thundery showers breaking out as time goes on, however you slice it, it looks like a very summery outlook to me, especially for the south & east.

[summer blizzard]

While i'm sure your all focused on the coming warm spell (and rightly so) and interesting trend has emerged on the GFS on the 12z, 0z and now tonights 12z with a potential shift in heights over the pole and especially the Greenland area.

 

Right now we have low heights but by day 10 now we have heights building north which could (and on this run does) evolve into a much cooler setup...

 

 

 

 

Personally I still think next week's mini low is being overdone - I can't ever recall a low deeping like that in summer with pressure high. I think GFS will be closest to the mark

 

We have a low dropping to 978mb tomorrow. It may not be normal but i would not rule it out.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean has to be the icing on the cake, it's EPIC... really stunning and superb with a very warm and anticyclonic outlook on the way, continental heat and humidity drifting up across the uk and lots of strong late august sizzling sunshine to enjoy with the added bonus of a scattering of thunderstorms when pressure drops a tad later and the humidity rises even more, really the models tonight have been great overall, hottest weather for central, southern & eastern areas, with higher emphasis on the southeast where temps look like pushing towards the mid 80's F or higher, generally mid 70's to low 80's F for a large area of the uk, hope the models continue to firm up on this fantastic trend in the coming days, that's all from me now, the frosty show is over

Edited August 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

While i'm sure your all focused on the coming warm spell (and rightly so) and interesting trend has emerged on the GFS on the 12z, 0z and now tonights 12z with a potential shift in heights over the pole and especially the Greenland area.

 

Right now we have low heights but by day 10 now we have heights building north which could (and on this run does) evolve into a much cooler setup...

 

 

 

 

 

We have a low dropping to 978mb tomorrow. It may not be normal but i would not rule it out.

I believe he is referring to something like this

 

I do it surprising that such a small feature develops and over-ride the building pressure from the south.

I have to admit it doesn't look right, but in the end the weather will do what it likes and makes fools of the lot of us sometimes.

As for the Greenland pressure rise - there have been charts like that all summer where the Azores high makes it to the tip of Greenland, but no sustained heights build as the ridge topples. Like the 12Z GFS today so I don't think it's much to look out for at the moment. 

Model output

GFS good even with the shortwave

UKMO looks ok, T144 looks good.

ECM - ??? T120-T144, really? Disappointed with the run and also the ensembles which have shunted the real warmth southwards. Plus winds north of east for the latter half of the run which is never good for the eastern half of the UK

GEM is superb and best run of the lot.

I am concerned with the ECM output as it's not downgrading that low, if anything it's upgrading it. Whilst I personally think it's wrong it has been showing it in a timeframe where the ECM usually rules supreme and with the ensembles now starting to back it, this shortwave may start to cause havoc with our developing high.

Hope the ECM backs off its solution.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[summer blizzard]

I believe he is referring to something like this

 

I do it surprising that such a small feature develops and over-ride the building pressure from the south.

I have to admit it doesn't look right, but in the end the weather will do what it likes and makes fools of the lot of us sometimes.

As for the Greenland pressure rise - there have been charts like that all summer where the Azores high makes it to the tip of Greenland, but no sustained heights build as the ridge topples. Like the 12Z GFS today so I don't think it's much to look out for at the moment. 

Model output

GFS good even with the shortwave

UKMO looks ok, T144 looks good.

ECM - ??? T120-T144, really? Disappointed with the run and also the ensembles which have shunted the real warmth southwards. Plus winds north of east for the latter half of the run which is never good for the eastern half of the UK

GEM is superb and best run of the lot.

I am concerned with the ECM output as it's not downgrading that low, if anything it's upgrading it. Whilst I personally think it's wrong it's showing it in a timeframe where the ECM usually rules supreme and with the ensembles now starting to back it, this shortwave may start to cause havoc with our developing high.

Hope the ECM backs off its solution.

True and true although its just a trend and not far off.

Not a fan of the likely more humid euro tonight and the Jma is comical developing a sub-tropical storm.

[Captain Shortwave]

True and true although its just a trend and not far off.

Not a fan of the likely more humid euro tonight and the Jma is comical developing a sub-tropical storm.

Ha that's completely mental. that would give Portugal a real pasting eventually.

GFS not going for the ECM solution, holding the low further west and not really affecting the UK

Again excellent further on

 

 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

Given what we are seeing, I think this is worth a bump:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/page-29#entry2764974

It could be chance I suppose, but I wish we had access to MOGREPS et al.

[Costa Del Fal]

Outstanding GFS 18z, reminiscent of July with temperatures mid to high 20s touching 30c by the later part of the working week ahead! Tuesday is when the real warmth kicks in but Wednesday when it becomes very warm for some.

[Scorcher]

Yes that GFS 18Z is probably the best run yet, but I am mindful of its reputation as the 'pub run'. Hopefully it has picked up a trend though as it's one of the hottest runs yet- the low 30s would be reached in the south by next weekend if it came off.