Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[ANYWEATHER]

How do you know that they won't happen? 

How do you know that it will?? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Not exactly the kind of post you expect from a Regional Forum Host. I reckon if they were showing unsettled conditions you would be all over it!

 

The GFS 18Z run is just rolling out now- I wonder if it will back away from the slight changes that the 12Z run showed compared to earlier runs.

To be honest, Im looking forward to a settled spell, but Im not really sure how long it will last, looking at the models , we need to make the most of next weeks weather, looks as the weather conditions become rather unstable after that 

[Biggin]

To be honest, Im looking forward to a settled spell, but Im not really sure how long it will last, looking at the models , we need to make the most of next weeks weather, looks as the weather conditions become rather unstable after that 

Yep but 4-6 weeks ago the models were showing same then "becoming unstable" etc which shed and draztic the doom mongers  kept on alluding to. it never came. But if they keep calling it, eventually they will be right law of averages.  Been quiet and warm weather and no sign of the Atlantic roaring in, in the reliable )))

[Captain Shortwave]

shortwave gate continues

 

 

GFS/UKMO make very little of it

 

 

ECM/GEM really develop the feature.

 

Not many GFS members develop the low as much as the ECM/GEM and many do not have the shortwave by this timeframe.

Confused  

The differences at T120 are very large due to this.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Would agree with much of what you say L although the NOAA chart for 8-14 days ahead has little sign of the actual 500mb ridge which the 6-10 shows. The 6-10 is similar to what the ECMWF-GFS have each shown, although not at the same time, over the past 2-3 days, as has, in anomaly form only the NAEFS.

I suspect that rather than the length of surface high, shown on varying synoptic outputs as being a minimum of 5 days possibly 8-10 days that we will lend up with 3-4 perhaps 5 days of surface high pressure dominated. The UK 6-15 day outlook is perhaps the closest forecast to the actual weather pattern we are going to get. This shows the start being in the south then slowly extending north before the Atlantic returns, how active is far from clear.

 

chilling words john, and perusing the models this morning id already begun to worry!

 

the huge fly in the ointment is that shortwave... is it there or isnt it?

 

the gfs says no, and has another peach of a run...

 

however the fax shows @ t120 the pesky shortwave and its heading straight for our northwest

 

and this is supported by the ecm (12z)

 

which then suggests a much cooler pressure build behind it, and it doesnt last as long, much as john suggests, and this is supported by these anomaly charts

 

 

so.... away from the gfs, theres alot to suggest this much vaunted settled spell isnt going to amount to much, other then a few nice days , as i see it, its all down to whether that shorwave forms/or tracks as expected, thats a massive fly in the oitment, and taking too much notice of the gfs only might yet lead to mass disappointment..... dont celebrate yet guys...

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyweather is absolutely right to be skeptical! The ecm monthly update has just been published, which shows no heatwave conditions other than a brief warm up at the end of next week, and a 4 day period between 30 August and 2 sept! After this date, it is showing progressively cooler temps affecting all areas. In terms of settled/unsettled.. Its a mixed bag! The SE looks like being the best area for warmth and sunshine amounts as we go deeper into sept,(tho it must be said, even here the model shows areas of LP affecting this area at times too) and the NW the most unsettled!interesting to note, the monthly update also shows a hurricane form - which tracks towards the Carolinas before turning NE and heading into the open Atlantic. So obviously, if this hurricane forms as the ecm sees it, it will have to be tracked as it could well affect our weather here in Blighty!

This is the same ECM 32 dayer which predicted August would be a complete write-off a couple of weeks back. heh

^Wow that's the first fax chart I've seen which has been modified from the raw output in weeks, They obviously think the ECM is right on this one. (plus their other models which we can't see)

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

stunning ecm stunning gfs.

looking fine and dandy this morning guys

[Frosty.]

Time for some good news....check out the GEFS 00z mean, it's superb as it was yesterday, indeed, in my opinion it looks like an upgrade on yesterday, this run indicates temperatures of 25 celsius + for many days in a row across the southern half of the uk, a touch lower further north but very nice. Summer will return next week, becoming increasingly fine and warm, initially in southern regions, but then extending north to remaining areas, the latest mean suggests the fine and very warm spell could last for some considerable time which would include the Bank Holiday weekend and probably into september, it looks to me as though high pressure will be bossing things for a good while once the weekend low clears off.....BANK   

Edited August 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[ANYWEATHER]

chilling words john, and perusing the models this morning id already begun to worry!

 

the huge fly in the ointment is that shortwave... is it there or isnt it?

 

the gfs says no, and has another peach of a run...

Rtavn1202.pngRtavn1442.png

 

however the fax shows @ t120 the pesky shortwave and its heading straight for our northwest

brack4.gif

 

and this is supported by the ecm (12z)

Recm1202.gif

 

which then suggests a much cooler pressure build behind it, and it doesnt last as long, much as john suggests, and this is supported by these anomaly charts

 

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

 

so.... away from the gfs, theres alot to suggest this much vaunted settled spell isnt going to amount to much, other then a few nice days , as i see it, its all down to whether that shorwave forms/or tracks as expected, thats a massive fly in the oitment, and taking too much notice of the gfs only might yet lead to mass disappointment..... dont celebrate yet guys...

Well the ecm keep that shortwave ,gfs does not....at t+120! Which one is right?     

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

so.... away from the gfs, theres alot to suggest this much vaunted settled spell isnt going to amount to much, other then a few nice days , as i see it, its all down to whether that shorwave forms/or tracks as expected, thats a massive fly in the oitment, and taking too much notice of the gfs only might yet lead to mass disappointment..... dont celebrate yet guys...

[Polar Maritime]

There are some very awkward personal post's on here this morning.. The models show what they show, the weather on the other hand does what it wants.

 

Why the need to split hairs is beyond me.

[Frosty.]

There are some very awkward personal post's on here this morning.. The models show what they show, the weather on the other hand does what it wants.

 

Why the need to split hairs is beyond me.

Yes PM and what they show is another burst of high summer weather, the mean is solid as an oak again this morning, once the autumnal low clears off, high pressure will fill the void.

[Frosty.]

T+120 hours FAX chart, welcomes back high pressure and the 564 dam line, summer is coming back with a BANG next week, initially for the south and then extending up across the uk as the anticyclone continues to build in, the evidence supporting a return of very summery weather far outweighs anything else.

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes PM and what they show is another burst of high summer weather, the mean is solid as an oak again this morning, once the autumnal low clears off, high pressure will fill the void.

But its not that clear cut! That shortwave needs to be taken into account, fax chart shows it along with the met office update mention unsettled in the north/west as a result of this. So although the south and east of the uk benefit from high pressure it does look a different ball game further northwest!

[Captain Shortwave]

Exactly , nothing is set in stone , and people getting carried away with charts after t144 should no better to be honest .remember the failed easterly ??A surface high is is the most likely , it may be 2 or 3 surface highs in succession , but like John said If its not on the 500mb charts then that has to raise caution .The hype on hear this summer has been the same as winters hype , and I have to say some comments on hear have been absolutely bonkers , although I love the optimism by frosty it does get a bit much , because it gives people false hope I'm afraid . If we can get another 5 days of warm weather then we need to be happy with that after July , but talking up another 2-3wk hot spell is bizarre before it even gets in the reliable and not been shown on the 500mb . I think a touch of realism is needed I'm afraid folks .Not the killjoy , I'm just realistic .

I have to ask, who has said there will be a 3 week hot spell? I haven't even Frosty who is self admitted the biggest ramper on here at the moment hasn't.

There is good support for the Azores high to be displaced over the UK and drift north east, it's a classic summer set up which would give a few days of very warm south easterly winds before a weak trough moves in from the Atlantic. So 3-4 days perhaps. If things go right we could import some very hot air like the last couple of ECM frames this morning suggest (aka trough to the west drawing the heat from Spain towards us)

Edited August 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

T+120 hours FAX chart, welcomes back high pressure and the 564 dam line, summer is coming back with a BANG next week, initially for the south and then extending up across the uk as the anticyclone continues to build in, the evidence supporting a return of very summery weather far outweighs anything else.

 

I think that is just one view of what may happen post the T+120 Fax frosty. You could be right but I would think the odds, at the moment, are about evens for what you suggest, no higher in spite of what GFS especially keeps showing. The anomaly charts do suggest a spell (how long is a spell?) of ridging may affect much of the UK, but I doubt it will be more than 3-4 days based on what I have seen from any and I mean any model over the past week, GFS, ECMWF, UK Met synoptic outputs and the anomaly outputs, NOAA, ECMWF-GFS and NAEFS.

Interesting for any of us to theorise and it will be interesting to see what the last 7 days or so of August do actually give all parts of the UK.

Edited August 16, 2013 by johnholmes

[shedhead]

Once again this morning the big 2 differ quite markedly as early as T+120hrs with regard to the shortwave, but even GFS only shows a brief warm, locally very warm spell before cooler weather returns from the NE. The 10c Hpa line only makes it into much of Scotand and N Ireland for around 24-48hrs late next week, so here temps would be near or a little above average at best, IF it were to verify. England and Wales still look set for 3 or 4, locally 5 days of warmth, but I'm reluctant to use the term heat at this stage, expect of course for the normal favoured spots in the southeast.

 

ECM looks a little odd to me and may well be overdoing the intensity of the LP running into the west midweek, but IF this evolution does verify Scotland and N Ireland will miss out on any warmth altogether and even England and Wales will cloudier and rather thundery.

 

UKMO this morning does not carry the midweek shortwave, but I'm not convinced it's 144hr would lead to the start of a lengthy fine, warm spell either, so it also probably provides more questions than answers at this stage.

 

So classic case of more runs needed, but what I said 24hrs ago still stands imo, i.e a nationwide heatwave is still as far away as it's ever been...indeed it may even be a little farther away this morning.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens show great support for heights building and migrating towards Scandinavia next week

 

 

 

Uppers looks good by the end of next week too and into the Bank holiday weekend.

[shedhead]

ECM ens show great support for heights building and migrating towards Scandinavia next week

 

 

 

Uppers looks good by the end of next week too and into the Bank holiday weekend.

 

Yes indeed CS, the LP moving into the west did look overdone on the op and therefore the rest of the run post T+120hr was likely to be a bit out of kilter as a result...but all eyes now on the 06GFS to see if it rears it's ugly head once again...

[lorenzo]

Well it is a bit of a rammy on the models this morning, a shortwave soap opera of which Nick Sussex would be proud , here is a chart review at 120 - 168hrs.

 

ECM does not look like a very clean solution this am 00z, in this 48 hr period the SW stopped in it's tracks and a thundery scene develops over the continent. Interesting developments over Scandi and this timeframe 144 has a bias for lifting heights in that region.

 

 

GEM is rapid and for us up here a preferred solution as the low is kicked North.

 

Quick glance at JMA as the Met Office like it for resolving model problems akin to the UK.

 

Shows the difference in vector of the warm air approaching from the South compared to the ECM this morning.

 

GFS looking quite steady this morning, with less drama than the others.

 

 

UKMO again with another clean solution.

 

 

Good to get an old fashioned model debate going and will provide interest over the weekend where CPC guidance not written, as usual we will be into Monday 12z until we get a true picture. Good to have John and Mushy placing the caveats on things, with the deterministic models not in good agreement at day 5 then a little ways to go on this one yet.

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2013 by lorenzo

[Frank Trough]

Yes indeed CS, the LP moving into the west did look overdone on the op and therefore the rest of the run post T+120hr was likely to be a bit out of kilter as a result...but all eyes now on the 06GFS to see if it rears it's ugly head once again...

 

wasn't it the GFS 06z a couple a of days ago that first picked up the little shortwave? it's subsequently dropped the idea but to be fair the last few ECM operationals have been consistently showing it (+ last night's fax chart shows it). 

 

I like it when these little "disagreements" happen, it's what makes model watching fun. I always kind of hope there will be a clear winner but it's not normally as clear cut as that. 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Once again this morning the big 2 differ quite markedly as early as T+120hrs with regard to the shortwave, but even GFS only shows a brief warm, locally very warm spell before cooler weather returns from the NE. The 10c Hpa line only makes it into much of Scotand and N Ireland for around 24-48hrs late next week, so here temps would be near or a little above average at best, IF it were to verify. England and Wales still look set for 3 or 4, locally 5 days of warmth, but I'm reluctant to use the term heat at this stage, expect of course for the normal favoured spots in the southeast.

 

ECM looks a little odd to me and may well be overdoing the intensity of the LP running into the west midweek, but IF this evolution does verify Scotland and N Ireland will miss out on any warmth altogether and even England and Wales will cloudier and rather thundery.

 

UKMO this morning does not carry the midweek shortwave, but I'm not convinced it's 144hr would lead to the start of a lengthy fine, warm spell either, so it also probably provides more questions than answers at this stage.

 

So classic case of more runs needed, but what I said 24hrs ago still stands imo, i.e a nationwide heatwave is still as far away as it's ever been...indeed it may even be a little farther away this morning.

I have to respectfully disagree.The GFS and its ensembles are  solid their projection of a very fine and warm settled spell of weather and ecm 0z is a vast improvement on the 12z yesterday.So,with that in mind,your last comment is patently not true.

Take a look at the gefs 0z ensembles AND the ecm0z mean right out to 240h,they are both sublime and bring about as good a synoptic pattern as you could wish to see in August.

Edited August 16, 2013 by happy days

[Methuselah]

I have to ask, who has said there will be a 3 week hot spell? I haven't even Frosty who is self admitted the biggest ramper on here at the moment hasn't.

There is good support for the Azores high to be displaced over the UK and drift north east, it's a classic summer set up which would give a few days of very warm south easterly winds before a weak trough moves in from the Atlantic. So 3-4 days perhaps. If things go right we could import some very hot air like the last couple of ECM frames this morning suggest (aka trough to the west drawing the heat from Spain towards us)

You raise a good point, CS...By all means disagree with what other folks actually do say, but putting words in others' mouths (purely for argument's sake) seems a tad pointless...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

^{With the UKMO and ECM both differing at T120 anything after this is pure speculation, however there certainly looks like a spell of settled weather early next week with temps in low 20's (certainly not headline news). Could possibly turn unsettled again after midweek. I don't see any hot weather on the horizon.}

[simshady]

Enjoyed the model discussion this last couple of weeks, no need for the bickering, no one owns the weather...we should all enjoy it whatever the weather..this is why the British weather is so interesting, it's so changeable, it can turn on a pin.....we'll all get our turn at our favourite temps.