Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 00z mean is another cracker of a run, becoming anticyclonic and progressively warmer, especially for the southern half of the uk where temps could eventually level out in the high 20's celsuis, low to mid 80's F and always the chance of even hotter air being imported from france, central and northern parts of the uk also look very nice with temps around the low to mid 20's c, mid to high 70's F.  

 

There has been no downgrade in the mean, it looks just as good if not better than previous days as far as I can see, the PFJ retreats north of iceland and stays there. Next week will become dry, sunny and warm or very warm, the only problem I can see is maybe a few weak fronts brushing around the top of the building anticyclone but then all of the uk looks set for another very summery spell which could last a couple of weeks or more.

Edited August 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Jax]

More interested in this coming Sunday, and no matter where you look it seems we could be getting some rain, maybe patch and light but it is there all the same.

[fine wine]

Another fantastic set of charts  from both the 0z and 06z charts on the GFS. There has certainly been growing support and confidence for very warm if not hot conditions to move across most of the UK starting from Monday. Great for those further north as that shortwave feature has been progressively toned down in the last few runs. 

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z goes hot end of next week. Ensemble mean pretty warm too. 30C, maybe even 32C a possibility if the op run has nailed it.

 

 

[Frosty.]

More interested in this coming Sunday, and no matter where you look it seems we could be getting some rain, maybe patch and light but it is there all the same.

Sunday looks ok, bright with sunny spells with just a few showers dotted around, the main rainband will have long gone by sunday daytime. Temps nudging into the low 70's F in the south, mid to high 60's F further north, then increasingly warm and sunny through next week as high pressure builds in and dominates.

[Big Innes Madori]

The Gefs 00z mean is another cracker of a run, becoming anticyclonic and progressively warmer, especially for the southern half of the uk where temps could eventually level out in the high 20's celsuis, low to mid 80's F and always the chance of even hotter air being imported from france, central and northern parts of the uk also look very nice with temps around the low to mid 20's c, mid to high 70's F.   There has been no downgrade in the mean, it looks just as good if not better than previous days as far as I can see, the PFJ retreats north of iceland and stays there. Next week will become dry, sunny and warm or very warm, the only problem I can see is maybe a few weak fronts brushing around the top of the building anticyclone but then all of the uk looks set for another very summery spell which could last a couple of weeks or more.

Your reading and presentation of the Models has been excellent this summer Frosty and I have followed your every word!Keep Talkin, Oh Keep Talkin!!!It's going to bring a whole new meaning to the old term " Frosty Weather"Keep up the good work mate!Big in awe Innes

[Scorcher]

Your reading and presentation of the Models has been excellent this summer Frosty and I have followed your every word!Keep Talkin, Oh Keep Talkin!!!It's going to bring a whole new meaning to the old term " Frosty Weather"Keep up the good work mate!Big in awe Innes

 

It has been and he continues his enthusiastic posts even when they naysayers come out in force. Frosty definitely provides much needed positivity in this thread. Even though I'm not a cold weather fan he does the same in winter which I'm sure a lot of the coldies appreciate!

[Frosty.]

A stunning Gfs 06z run, especially next week as it becomes very warm and then hot by the second half of next week with temperatures into the high 20's to low 30's celsius across the southern half of the uk, low to mid 20's celsius for n.ireland & scotland but it looks sunny everywhere after the transitional day on monday as the anticyclone continues to build in as the weekend low clears off. Almost the entire run is anticyclonic, next week it becomes hot because a continental drift develops with winds mainly from the south/se but the following week there are some adjustments as an atlantic high builds in to reinforce the existing anticyclone which was beginning to wane a bit, the change in orientation of the high on this run means the hot continental air supply is cut off and then mixed out by fresher air associated with the atlantic high but the result would be continuing fine and sunny weather with temps in the low to mid 20's c instead of the sultry mid 80's F...the bottom line is it's a FANTASTIC run, great weather for the Bank Holiday weekend and a perfect end to a super summer, even if the settled spell was to break down by the end of august, my instict tells me the azores high would build in again through early september...BANK THIS RUN.

[Frosty.]

Your reading and presentation of the Models has been excellent this summer Frosty and I have followed your every word!

Keep Talkin, Oh Keep Talkin!!!

It's going to bring a whole new meaning to the old term " Frosty Weather"

Keep up the good work mate!

Big in awe Innes

Thanks Big Innes Madori, much appreciated mate

[mushymanrob]

It has been and he continues his enthusiastic posts even when they naysayers come out in force. Frosty definitely provides much needed positivity in this thread. Even though I'm not a cold weather fan he does the same in winter which I'm sure a lot of the coldies appreciate!

 

oh theres plenty of coldies in winter going into great detail about what might happen, and ramping up the possibilities <_<  , some very knowlegable too people are here too. frosty will be here in winter, hes one guy who posts all year round (as a true weather fan should ...? ), but will be not alone in his enthusiasm!

[DAVID SNOW]

oh theres plenty of coldies in winter going into great detail about what might happen, and ramping up the possibilities   , some very knowlegable too people are here too. frosty will be here in winter, hes one guy who posts all year round (as a true weather fan should ...? ), but will be not alone in his enthusiasm!

There are also those members who view the MOD thread all year round but don't post very often

[tempestwatch]

There are also those members who view the MOD thread all year round but don't post very often

I am one of those David and appreciate the vast amount of knowledge put into these posts, ramping or not. I follow the MOD thread and my local scottish thread where I post a little more than on here. Thanks to all

[mushymanrob]

There are also those members who view the MOD thread all year round but don't post very often

 

fair comment!

[shedhead]

There are also those members who view the MOD thread all year round but don't post very often

Agreed and there is room for all, but the most impotant thing is to respect the views others hold, whether you agree with them or not.  At the end of the day model watching (which after all is the hobby that supposedly binds us) is not an exact science and for that reason it can be subective at T+12hrs, let alone at T+120hrs and beyond. For that reason there are effectively no right or wrong opinions..just opinions.

Edited August 15, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean is another stunner, these charts speak for themselves, we really couldn't ask for more than this in late summer, the last few weeks of summer could have been a cool damp squib but thankfully that won't be the case, these are anticyclonic dream charts with warmer uppers spreading up from the south and sending temperatures soaring into the high 20's celsius for central and southern uk, nearer mid 20's c for scotland, it's PERFECT if something similar to this verifies. The high res and early low res looks superb. 

 

PS..Thanks scorcher

Edited August 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Methuselah]

Just what the doctor ordered!

[johnholmes]

sorry to bang on about 500mb charts but this is a good example (re my 70% correct theory) of their usefulness at the 6-10 day range)

 

500mb correct prediction july to august 2013.pdf

 

copied into technical thread also

 

[Milhouse]

The 10c isotherm keeps on creeping northwards with every run. At the warmest point at T+192 it covers most of England and Wales.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Stunning outputs today with August looking primed to go out on a lovely warm settled note.

Many thanks to Tamara Frosty and others for their fantastic input during what has been a great summer for the warm lovers 

I think the vast majority on here and across the UK would happily take a rerun of summer 2013 for the next few years 

 

GFS looks best for  a sustained spell of warmth with ukmo and ecm less bullish but all in all August looks primed to be another 'above average' month on the CET table to follow Julys heatfest,whats there to be unhappy about?

[The Northern Ramper]

The 12z Gfs does not disappoint.

[Paul]

Latest look at the weather for the upcoming week (and beyond) from Michael Fish:

 

[mushymanrob]

i dont like the 12z gfs... we lose the 10c upper for a while in fi :lol:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

i dont like the 12z gfs... we lose the 10c upper for a while in fi

lol mushy after tuesday its essentially a dry warm picture with only minor blips out to the beginning of september.

UKMO looks nice too.

A wonderful end to a wonderful summer is imminent.

[Jax]

Sunday looks ok, bright with sunny spells with just a few showers dotted around, the main rainband will have long gone by sunday daytime. Temps nudging into the low 70's F in the south, mid to high 60's F further north, then increasingly warm and sunny through next week as high pressure builds in and dominates.

Hope you are right Frosty, else I will send you the bill for the tent

[Milhouse]

After ploughing a lone furrow in refusing to accept a pressure rise the UKMO finally gives in. High pressure building much further north on the 12z.