Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[draztik]

That's because the charts last week have changed in detail a little. Which is very normal.

funny, i saw those exact same models, and i never see heatwave conditions from them. The ecm model, over the last week, has been very reluctant to show temps as high as the gfs regularly shows. People see one model, and go crazy! I realise that's normal in here, but ...hp was always likely to come to the uk the week ahead, that was never in dispute. But we had some suggesting temps in the 90s. The support for that kind of heat, was limited.

[draztik]

erm, you were the only one mentioning heatwave, and that was used to dismiss the coming spell of warm/hot weather. in fairness though some runs DID suggest heatwave with the 15c upper over most of southern uk.

so those suggesting temps in the 90s for a protracted time period, isn't suggesting a heatwave? Please.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Indeed bluearmy, recent runs and particularly the 00's have made some recent posts look rather silly, even a little cringworthy. Ignoring the LP running into the west midweek was always fraught with danger, as was assuming if it did materialise a quick and strong build of presssure behind it is/was an absolute given.

 

What we see this morning is a pretty average week for the north, with temps starting a little below average and finishing a little above.

 

The south still looks in line for a mostly dry and increasingly warm working week, but even here I would not expect wall to wall sunshine, especially the farther north and west you travel. By the weekend (perhaps not unsuprisingly as it's a Bank Holiday for most) LP looks set to return, bringing the prospect of some rain or showers and much lower temperatures.

 

Beyond this I'd suggest waiting to see what the models come up with across the next few days before making to many assumptions about prospects for the following week.

 

Been saying this for days now, any signs of a nationwide heatwave or epic hot spell look as far away as ever this morning.

First of all,Lets hope the moderators follow up on their stated position of zero tolerance for snide digs at other members !

Now,onto the models.

The trough in the Atlantic is complicating matter this morning,its more of a feature than yesterday for sure,and confidence in a warm settled spell of weather is less marked.That said,the gefs 0z ensembles look warm and predominantly settled and the ECM 0z run is fine with warm and dry weather in the ascendancy.

[shedhead]

That's because the charts last week have changed in detail a little. Which is very normal.

They haven't 'changed in detail a little' though PM, thay have changed significantly, the 06GFS changes being the most significant to date.  The fact is we are still unsure precisely how the LP is going to manifest itself for the coming weekend, but I think it's more than fair to say an 'increasingly unsettled' trend continues to be advertised by the models....at least for now.

[Tamara]

erm, you were the only one mentioning heatwave, and that was used to dismiss the coming spell of warm/hot weather. in fairness though some runs DID suggest heatwave with the 15c upper over most of southern uk.

Yes. its that differential again between commenting on what a model shows and what the reality may be. Its usually clear where someone posts a summary of what the model shows but isn't necessarily suggesting that is what is going to happen. Karl, aka Frosty (just f.e) does this very well indeed  - and I think it should be remembered that it is simply a commentary snapshot of the model as it stands, not automatically a forecast prediction as such. If this was taken into account much more, then some of these little, um, dispute-ettes  might be avoided and keep the thread cleaner

 

Amen to post 1210

Edited August 18, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Polar Maritime]

They haven't 'changed in detail a little' though PM, thay have changed significantly, the 06GFS changes being the most significant to date.  The fact is we are still unsure precisely how the LP is going to manifest itself for the coming weekend, but I think it's more than fair to say an 'increasingly unsettled' trend continues to be advertised by the models....at least for now.

 

The detail for the UK has not changed much for the UK next week Shed, beyond yes as always.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

Before resorting to a mass deletion, could I just ask you all to bear in mind, that the models do not in any way influence the weather. The weather will simply do what it will; so what's the point in bickering over it?

 

Calm down. It's not a competition!

[A.J]

this morning's runs for my neck of the woods for the coming week can be summed up in four words.....hotter, thundery, bbq, & beers......sorry to all my comrades in NI, Scotland and northern Eng, but if synoptics for your neck of the woods is not as good, then book a holiday darn sarf, that's where the heat will be....must dash, Pimm's o'clock is rapidly approaching....chin, chin.....

[Milhouse]

Apart from the unsettled conditions affecting the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday we are looking at another fine week of summery conditions. This week doesnt really compare to July but if it had sat during the summers of 2007 or 2012 we might have been calling it the best week of the summer. I feel a bit of perspective is needed with regards to the breakdown. Its a very summery breakdown (if you can call it that) because temperatures look set to remain on the warm side and there will be lots of humidity around, so essentially its a summery outlook, becoming quite tropical if we get some very warm air pulled up at the end of the week and into the weekend. As for becoming cool and unsettled to end the month. I am not seeing it, and nor is the ECM at day 10.

 

[Frosty.]

this morning's runs for my neck of the woods for the coming week can be summed up in four words.....hotter, thundery, bbq, & beers......sorry to all my comrades in NI, Scotland and northern Eng, but if synoptics for your neck of the woods is not as good, then book a holiday darn sarf, that's where the heat will be....must dash, Pimm's o'clock is rapidly approaching....chin, chin.....

Spot on ajpoolshark, it's a great looking week coming up with summery weather returning, and thanks Tamara, your posts are out of the top drawer, superb.

[Summer Sun]

The eps ecm control model from t240 to 360, shows very cool air over the UK by the end of its run, with 5 uppers over the SE and near 0 over Scotland, NI and Northern England. As for the "hot" spell by midweek, it appears to be rather brief, before cooler and unsettled weather move in.

 

Very cool air? are you been serious here? the uppers shown at days 9 and 10 are higher than we have today so I'm not sure where the very cool air is

 

[Tamara]

. I feel a bit of perspective is needed with regards to the breakdown. Its a very summery breakdown (if you can call it that) because temperatures look set to remain on the warm side and there will be lots of humidity around, so essentially its a summery outlook, becoming quite tropical if we get some very warm air pulled up at the end of the week and into the weekend. As for becoming cool and unsettled to end the month. I am not seeing it, and nor is the ECM at day 10.

 

 

 

I very much agree with that.  So do the METO it seems, largely, who have much more expertise and data to consider than most of us on here. The emphasis on temperatures even after the B/H weekend remaining average to slightly above average is also endorsed too. First of all time to enjoy the remainder of this one I think

[Frosty.]

Very cool air? are you been serious here? the uppers shown at days 9 and 10 are higher than we have today so I'm not sure where the very cool air is

 

I think he means Greenland which is ironic since that's where the green colours are with the PFJ  for company

 

Being serious though, it's going to be 22c 72f in the southeast today and that's before the warmth starts to build through the week ahead, I would think the south/se could reach between 85-90F later in the week or by the end of the week and every day will be turning warmer by the day. At least low 80's F for most of the uk from midweek, very summery indeed, similar to July.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

First of all,Lets hope the moderators follow up on their stated position of zero tolerance for snide digs at other members !

Now,onto the models.

The trough in the Atlantic is complicating matter this morning,its more of a feature than yesterday for sure,and confidence in a warm settled spell of weather is less marked.That said,the gefs 0z ensembles look warm and predominantly settled and the ECM 0z run is fine with warm and dry weather in the ascendancy.

well said, as for the weather, happy days are here again..

[shedhead]

I think he means Greenland which is ironic since that's where the green colours are with the PFJ  for company

 

Being serious though, it's going to be 22c 72f in the southeast today and that's before the warmth starts to build through the week ahead, I would think the south/se could reach between 85-90F later in the week or by the end of the week and every day will be turning warmer by the day. At least low 80's F for most of the uk from midweek, very summery indeed, similar to July.

 

Even given the GFS's perpensity to undercook maxima, to suggest 27-28c for most of the UK from midweek is...well I'll leave others to decide.

 

Maxima of 27-28c or more look reserved for areas well inland southeast of a line from about Portland to the Humber, elsewhere 21-25c looks a fair average, with as much of the UK seeing 17-20c as 27 or 28c.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2013 by shedhead

[Paul]

Just a reminder (as one or two have now fallen foul of it), posts which have a go at others, are personal snides or attacks are unacceptable and as such we have a zero tolerance policy toward them in this and the model banter thread. Any posts of this sort will be removed and those making them stopped from posting in here with no further notice so please take heed and moderate your own posts before hitting the submit button.

[cheese]

Even given the GFS's perpensity to undercook maxima, to suggest 27-28c for most of the UK from midweek is...well I'll leave others to decide.

 

We'll see, but I cannot stress enough how the GFS should not be used as a gospel for maximum temperatures, or the Met Office temperature forecasts. Both were going for around 28C here on 1 August, and what happened? Oh, we only reached 31C (yes, here in the cold, desolate North). They of course changed their forecast by the time this had happened to show 30C. Just saying that neither should be relied upon and I definitely wouldn't use them to prove a point.

Edited August 18, 2013 by cheese

[shedhead]

We'll see, but I cannot stress enough how the GFS should not be used as a gospel for maximum temperatures, or the Met Office temperature forecasts. Both were going for around 28C here on 1 August, and what happened? Oh, we only reached 31C (yes, here in the cold, desolate North). They of course changed their forecast by the time this had happened to show 30C. Just saying that neither should be relied upon and I definitely wouldn't use them to prove a point.

Most of the UK is showing max in the range 19-24c, it's a very long way to 27-28c from there cheese, but no doubt large swathes of inland England and maybe favoured parts of E Wales will get there. Not however 'most of the UK'

[Summer Sun]

The met office are going for 29c in Jersey on Friday and 27c in London so I wouldn't rule out 30c getting hit later this week its certainly possible

 

So far GFS looks on the money for the mainland UK on Friday with it showing highs of 27c which is what the met office have in today's weak ahead forecast

 

Edited August 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

I have to admit the model output this morning reminds me of the winter months with the models trying to take low pressure under heights to our north east. I notice the 06z GFS at least makes more of an effort to do this compared to the previous run.

The end of FI is a little crazy though

Standard GFS hurricane, bit early for that I think 

Looking at the ensembles, most show something similar to the op and the 00z run. A few take the low further south and hold high pressure further north. 

My money would be on the Euro models being closer to the mark. But for a settled bank holiday weekend we need corrections south and west of that low, this would also favour bringing in warmer air off the continent.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Panayiotis]

Well the GFS 12z is coming out and 150hrs we have some expected differences compared to the 06Z. The 12z is showing the low ~300miles south from where the 06z placed it and I think its due to the stronger Scandi block (1024mb compared to 1020mb). I wonder if the next runs will continue to show a southern shift in the low pressure, then we might be looking at another plume....

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the GFS 12z is coming out and 150hrs we have some expected differences compared to the 06Z. The 12z is showing the low ~300miles south from where the 06z placed it and I think its due to the stronger Scandi block (1024mb compared to 1020mb). I wonder if the next runs will continue to show a southern shift in the low pressure, then we might be looking at another plume....

Standard GFS weakness coming to the fore here, moving to the Euro models. 

I'm liking the UKMO output

South/South easterly flow, potential thundery downpours, especially in the South west, very warm and humid.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

GEM ejects the trough through during saturday. if we cannot avoid it then i guess one poor day at the weekend will be the best result.  the GFS makes a right meal of the trough and is hopefully wrong.

[mushymanrob]

hmmm i see the gfs is sticking to its major spoiler for the weekend. hopefully its overcooking the size of that trough. as things stand there will not be much sun or heat if the current gfs prevails.

[bradymk]

Will ECM follow UKMO or make the most of the trough like the GFS. GEM is ok too, but UKMO best but not exactly what most of us were hoping. The weather is never straightforward, hmph. It could still turn out pretty decent though, gfs is probably one of the worst solutions

Edited August 18, 2013 by bradythemole