Convective / Storm Discussion - 31st July onwards 2013

[Supacell]

Two distinct lines of heavy showers and thunderstorms - one from Cornwall to North London and another from Coventry to the south of Lincoln. I won't be chasing today but if they feel like they want to pay Belper a visit then I won't complain.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Im getting fed up of hearing other people get storms, north, south, east and west of me yet I get nothing time after time and when we do get something its small and piddly loses its energy over us and then regains its strength later. Definatley storm cursed!If I moved it would be the same storm also!

Particular wind directions can indicate whether I myself think there will be a direct hit on us!! I know when the forecast says storms and the wind is directly West, we never ever seem to have one land right on us! Always to the North, or South. However, a SW wind always sees that convergence line across central Cornwall and Devon deliver its goods to us later in the day. A S wind also regularly delivers too, whereas a WSW from the severn estuary seems to curse us badly aswell, but if sourced from Pembrokeshire peninsula that is slightly N, we seem to get the goods. 

Is there any direction that you find favourable down your way at all? 

[chapmanslade]

Plenty of electrical activity and very heavy rain about an hour ago with round 2 rumbling in the distance

[Utahraptor]

I see some very dark clouds in the distance...

 

It looks like it has a decent radar echo too. Hopefully it will do something, even though the chances of that are slim

[Utahraptor]

I heard a rather loud thunderclap, but for some reason it isn't appearing on the ATD lightning detector! What could be going on? 

[IanR]

Just arrived in Lake District for a week. I see there is a storm chance tonight. What a bonus as was treated to a spectacular show on Friday down in Suffolk!

lakes are classed as north west england ,so dont hold your breath for a thunderstorm,

[angela lynne]

Bout time we had storms up ere

[SalopWatcher]

Just had an overhead storm in shrewsbury! First since 2011. Came out the Shrewsbury game to a rumble and then a really good storm came over with lightening and loud thunder... Out of nothing!! Strikes right over the town and near town centre. One strike less that half a mile from house, instant thunder!

Amazing really all those near misses from widespread risk days and we finally get hit by a totally isolated cell which sprung up from nothing 30 south of town! The weather us a funny old thing!

Looks to dieing heading north east!

Edited August 3, 2013 by SalopWatcher

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Absolutely no chance of storms in cumbria

[The PIT]

Sheffield storm have heartily powered up. I wonder if last nights thundery shower would have lasted longer if I hadn't decided to try and watch it.

[ChezWeather]

Gigantic cell to my west, could be in for another hit!

[Polar Maritime]

Storm just starting to pass over here, the sky is black to my S/W overhead.

[RobR]

Gigantic cell to my west, could be in for another hit!

That was the one that passed over Stoke just. It was very ominous and a few flashes and some overhead thunder but not that impressive despite the size. The rain no where near as heavy as the storm yesterday either. 

[Bluebreezer54]

Im getting fed up of hearing other people get storms, north, south, east and west of me yet I get nothing time after time and when we do get something its small and piddly loses its energy over us and then regains its strength later. Definatley storm cursed!

If I moved it would be the same storm also!

Mate, I can only think you must spend an awful lot of time with your eyes and ears closed  or your expectations are way too high .

 

I live about 5 miles down the road from you and I have seen more lightning and heard more thunder in the last month than I have in the previous 2 or 3 years combined. I would say a good percentage of that has been from watching storms just to my north so that puts them almost directly over Watford !!

 

Not spectacular supercells I grant you, but thunderstorms all the same.

[ChezWeather]

Pretty sure iv just seen lightning to my west

[Polar Maritime]

Well that one was a wast of time..It pitted out over me, I'll await the next one hopefully, Some lovely clouds tonight out there.

Edited August 3, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[ChezWeather]

Anything else heading this way? No radar on my phone-_-

[Polar Maritime]

Anything else heading this way? No radar on my phone-_-

 

Not looking brilliant, but there are a few drips and drabs that could develop.

[The PIT]

Just rain here. Shower being shredded as I type.

[Summer Sun]

Synopsis

 

Some convective activity is possible in association with a developing frontal zone over western Britain/Irish Sea/eastern Ireland through Sunday.

Discussion

 

Within the base of an upper trough and under the left exit of the jet aloft, a new frontal wave is expected to migrate northeastwards across the Irish sea and adjacent land areas. Within and just ahead of this developing frontal wave, a tongue of moisture characterised by mixing ratios of 10-11 g/kg and 12-14C WBPT will be advected northeastwards across western parts of Britain. 

 

This airmass may be subjected to both embedded elevated convection throughout, and potential surface-based thunderstorms during a limited time window (12z-19z). If sufficient insolation can develop in-between the two main frontal waves, a few hundred J/kg CAPE may allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to form. Given 30-40kts DLS, and backed surface flow ahead of a surface low associated with the second frontal wave, there is the potential for a low-topped supercell to develop, more especially over C/N Wales into NW Eng through the afternoon and early evening hours. This combined with low LCLs promotes the risk of a funnel or brief tornado, with perhaps hail up to 1.5cm in diameter if any strong cells can develop.

 

There are also indications that a line of heavy showers/embedded thundersatorms may also develop across eastern parts of Ireland through the afternoon along the trailing cold front/zone of enhanced low-level convergence, given strong unidirectional DLS. PWAT values near 30mm and shower training poses a threat of local flash flooding from prolonged downpours here.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/268

 

 

[Chris.R]

Hey, guess what, it's been sunny here all day, again. It's like another world here, again.

Haha, supercells in NW england, in your dreams! I'll beleive it when I see it. I don't ever remeber the words super cell and Nort

hwest England in the same centence before. Probably the last time as well LOL.

There is some good instability in that front though, we'll see.

[Static Prevails]

Nothing thundery here but the intensity of the rainfall of the shower that just passed was impressive.

[Utahraptor]

I saw this cell pass north of me.

 

 

 

I heard a few rumbles, and some of the cloud seemed like it was rotating at one point...  

[Cheshire Freeze]

That was the one that passed over Stoke just. It was very ominous and a few flashes and some overhead thunder but not that impressive despite the size. The rain no where near as heavy as the storm yesterday either. 

 

Saw that pass to the E of here.......again!

[Summer of 95]

Just had an overhead storm in shrewsbury! First since 2011. Came out the Shrewsbury game to a rumble and then a really good storm came over with lightening and loud thunder... Out of nothing!! Strikes right over the town and near town centre. One strike less that half a mile from house, instant thunder!Amazing really all those near misses from widespread risk days and we finally get hit by a totally isolated cell which sprung up from nothing 30 south of town! The weather us a funny old thing!Looks to dieing heading north east!

It was unreal wasn' t it, one isolated cell hits us direct after all those organised storms missed! Was really windy as well when the storm passed overhead, and that rain came out of nowhere- it literally went from sun to thunder, lightning and a downpour in an instant.