South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >

[Frosty1]

Not strictly weather related but just spent 20 minutes in the back garden star gazing under cloudless skies and managed to spot three lovely shooting stars. Worth a peek if you have time but it is chilly!

[AWD]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

I've probably made this more complicated than it needs to be, but there will be differences around the region that I feel need highlighting differently rather than just a broad sweep of the brush.

The area in blue, which includes South Devon and Cornwall will see periods of light rain and showers from the word go tomorrow. The odd heavy burst over the moors etc is possible, but for most it will just be light rain amounting to no more than a few mm's. This rain will clear as we go into the afternoon and although some cloud will linger, the sunshine should also break through from time to time too.

The area in yellow, which is there mainly for Exmoor and environs could see some locally moderate falls of rain tomorrow morning into the afternoon. These falls may be localised but some totals in excess of 10mm in one or two spots are possible.

The area in green will start of mostly cloudy but dry. As the day progresses though the rain from the blue area will migrate into the red and green areas. This will turn more showery as it does so though. The red area could see some well scattered heavy showers developing tomorrow afternoon. This area includes north Dorset, south Somerset and into the Mendips. As ever with showers, they will be hit and miss. The green area around the red area is also at risk of some showers tomorrow afternoon but much more scattered and rather lighter in nature too. This includes the rest of Somerset, inland Dorset, much of Wiltshire and Hampshire. Again these lighter showers will be hit and miss, with some places staying dry and some seeing prolonged light showers or even light rain.

Due to the mass of cloudcover and limited brightness, temperatures will again be rather surpressed tomorrow, despite the introduction of muggy, humid air. Dewpoints across the South West could rise into the mid teens and perhaps the high teens across Devon & Cornwall later in the day. The best of any brightness will be across Gloucestershire, north Wiltshire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire.

Temperatures for many of us not exceeding the high teens but some favoured areas, again mainly on the south coast may get into the low twenties.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don' know what you're basing your forecasts on and how you produce those maps but I can only applaud you for your efforts AWD.

 

Thank you muchly.

 

As for longer term, as AWD stated a day or two back, with confirmation from fergieweather, things look to change around the weekend. From there on in, it could be heatwave part deux. For a sound judgement of the next few days out into FI, you should look no further than the post (which is showing a solid trend) reproduced below, courtesy of Frosty039 from the MOD thread.  Yes, this purely from the GFS but the ECM, GEM et.al are also on board now, broadly speaking.

 

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The GEFS 12z mean brings a glorious end to summer 2013, next week soon becoming dry, sunny and progressively warmer from the south as high pressure builds in after the relatively cool and unsettled weekend, the developing fine spell next week could persist until early september because these ens mean charts look very benign with a calm atlantic and the PFJ up near iceland or even further north. These are great charts and there is also a good chance of tapping into hotter continental uppers as time goes on, this run indicates widespread mid 20's celsius and nearer high 20's c, low 80's F across the south/se.

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My "gut feeling" remains that this cooler blip will become a distant memory in 5 to 7 days' time and the warmer largely settled weather should last into late August and maybe the beginning of September, as Frosty also suggests.

 

My original "gut feeling" post here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77461-south-west-central-southern-regional-discussion-2nd-august-2013/?p=2762079 was off the mark regarding the first half of August but I feel confident that things will hot up in time. Now, if the nights can remain reasonably cool, PLEASE, I might not get a third bout of heatstroke.

Edited August 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

<p>I don' know what you're basing your forecasts on and how you produce those maps but I can only applaud you for your efforts AWD.

Just a blend of high res products and Satelitte imagery in the Atlantic to see what both have in common as to any favourable developments for the future 24 hours or so.Think we down here in the south could be in for a decent week next week.

[William of Walworth]

Majort thanks for that analysis AWD, keep up the good work!

 

<bites nails still, for this coming weekend ... >

[Bristawl Si]

So what's it going to be like weatherwise in Newbury this Saturday?

Off to Newbury on Friday for a couple of days - Horse Racing on Saturday up at the racecourse - is it really looking wet or could it get away with showers?

Any thoughts?

Cheers all, BB.

[AWD]

So what's it going to be like weatherwise in Newbury this Saturday?Off to Newbury on Friday for a couple of days - Horse Racing on Saturday up at the racecourse - is it really looking wet or could it get away with showers?Any thoughts?Cheers all, BB.

Showers or some light rain maybe on Saturday. Little sign of any heavy rain or "washout" conditions for Newbury really.Don't like using the GFS model really but until it comes into the range of more high res models there isn't much else for us mortals to use.This is the rainfall accumulation chart from now up until Saturday evening;As you can see there, little meaningful rainfall expected with just a few mm's for the next few days in Hampshire, suggestive of a few showers rather than prolonged, frontal rainfall.ECM broadly similiar, with showers or light drizzly rain the main theme, rather than anything more substantial;Could be a bit blowy at times though. Edited August 13, 2013 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

Cheers AWD.

Weather forecast on bbc news24 this eve seemed to hint there is some uncertainty about track of system on Saturday and how much rain it will produce or indeed where.

[AWD]

Cheers AWD.Weather forecast on bbc news24 this eve seemed to hint there is some uncertainty about track of system on Saturday and how much rain it will produce or indeed where.

There will always be a degree of uncertainty with rainfall 4/5 days away and things obviously could change.With little model output guidance suggestive of anything more meaningful than light rain and with any rainfall event over the last few weeks getting rather watered down to next to nothing, at this stage I'm easily inclined to lean towards drab, cloudy and showery conditions rather than anything worse for us at this stage.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a blend of high res products and Satelitte imagery in the Atlantic to see what both have in common as to any favourable developments for the future 24 hours or so.

Think we down here in the south could be in for a decent week next week.

 

Impressive forecasting skills, I must say.  I take it, you've got access to the full NW extra suite, if not, perhaps you should subscribe to it.

 

Thanks again, looking to your posts each day at the moment, as I'm sure are many others.

[gottolovethisweather]

So what's it going to be like weatherwise in Newbury this Saturday?

Off to Newbury on Friday for a couple of days - Horse Racing on Saturday up at the racecourse - is it really looking wet or could it get away with showers?

Any thoughts?

Cheers all, BB.

 

Surely, that Is not allowed?  Make sure to visit the Hatchet and/or The Diamond Tap. Good food, good atmosphere on most occasions.

Edited August 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

There will always be a degree of uncertainty with rainfall 4/5 days away and things obviously could change.

With little model output guidance suggestive of anything more meaningful than light rain and with any rainfall event over the last few weeks getting rather watered down to next to nothing, at this stage I'm easily inclined to lean towards drab, cloudy and showery conditions rather than anything worse for us at this stage.

 

Drab in Newbury, not when I'm about town, surely.

[Bristawl Si]

 

Surely, that Is not allowed?  Make sure to visit the Hatchet and/or The Diamond Tap. Good food, good atmosphere on most occasions.

What's the pub on the river in the town? Prob go there Friday lunchtime.

Already booked Indigo Indian restaurant for friday eve. Been there before and it's pretty good.

[AWD]

Impressive forecasting skills, I must say. I take it, you've got access to the full NW extra suite, if not, perhaps you should subscribe to it.

Of course I have. Best info on the web available to us mortals. Edited August 14, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

 

What's the pub on the river in the town? Prob go there Friday lunchtime.

Already booked Indigo Indian restaurant for friday eve. Been there before and it's pretty good.

 

I suspect you mean the Lock, Stock and Barrel. However, there are a couple of others.

 

On a weather theme, I best get at least one weather-related posting in today.   The first few heavy spots of convective type rain are beginning to fall in Newbury, oddly falling from a largely clear sunny sky.

Edited August 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[wimblettben]

It was quite good in the sun this mourning.

 

Shame it couldn't have lasted all day.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Raining now...17.1c....Humidity 92%.

[AWD]

Not the best of days today. Thankfully though, days like this have been few and far between this summer.

Edited August 14, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Different day

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77461-south-west-central-southern-regional-discussion-2nd-august-2013/?p=2767720

 

However, consensus is building for a high pressure building from the SW type scenario, in just a few days time. A lot of the talk is about heatwaves in the MOD thread right now and although, it is impossible to predict Temps at this stage, I remain convinced that part deux is looking most probable.

Edited August 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

Another drab, dreary, dull and wet day with some sort of rainfall around for many of us at some point.

The area in red is the area at risk of the bulk of rainfall and showers. This includes Cornwall, Devon, much of Dorset, Gloucestershire, north Hampshire and South Oxfordshire. There will be a lot of cloudcover here with sporadic patches of rain at times. Some light but some heavy pulses are also possible.

The area in green, which includes much of Somerset, Wiltshire, north Dorset, Bristol and BANES could see some heavier bursts of rain tomorrow afternoon with perhaps a couple of torrential downpours scattered around. A few mm's of rainfall could accumulate here.

Elsewhere, although still rather cloudy, it should be much drier with just well scattered, light and short periods of rain possible. This includes South Hampshire, the IOW, Berkshire and north Oxfordshire.

Temperatures should reach the low twenties for many of us, with the high teens best for Cornwall. High humidity values will give a muggy feel to the day however.

[William of Walworth]

FWIW, BBC update for Exeter doesn't show the real rain starting until after about 10 pm tonight (Thursday). Could well be pretty heavy after that though.

 

I also fear a washout on Saturday!!!! (any ideas on the length/heaviness/intensity of SW rainfall then, folks?).

 

But on the brighter side, Friday (after midday) and Sunday both look pretty dry.

 

We're packing the boots and waterproofs in our festival-bound car, but also some summer stuff.

 

It's a bit of a killer that NEXT week looks so comprehensively lovely on the model output. Could really have done with the HP building from TODAY! </grumpy>

 

(still has faint hopes that Saturday's rain might yet get downgraded for SE Devon ... )

[dec10snow]

FWIW, BBC update for Exeter doesn't show the real rain starting until after about 10 pm tonight (Thursday). Could well be pretty heavy after that though. I also fear a washout on Saturday!!!! (any ideas on the length/heaviness/intensity of SW rainfall then, folks?). But on the brighter side, Friday (after midday) and Sunday both look pretty dry. We're packing the boots and waterproofs in our festival-bound car, but also some summer stuff. It's a bit of a killer that NEXT week looks so comprehensively lovely on the model output. Could really have done with the HP building from TODAY!  (still has faint hopes that Saturday's rain might yet get downgraded for SE Devon ... )

Well Matt Hugo posted this earlier, this is the GFS, GEM and UKMO models predictions of rainfall amounts over the next 72 hours...

[A.J]

A generally manky day so far with occasional light rain and/or drizzle....feeling somewhat muggy, and certainly not cold

[A.J]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

image.jpg

Another drab, dreary, dull and wet day with some sort of rainfall around for many of us at some point.

The area in red is the area at risk of the bulk of rainfall and showers. This includes Cornwall, Devon, much of Dorset, Gloucestershire, north Hampshire and South Oxfordshire. There will be a lot of cloudcover here with sporadic patches of rain at times. Some light but some heavy pulses are also possible.

The area in green, which includes much of Somerset, Wiltshire, north Dorset, Bristol and BANES could see some heavier bursts of rain tomorrow afternoon with perhaps a couple of torrential downpours scattered around. A few mm's of rainfall could accumulate here.

Elsewhere, although still rather cloudy, it should be much drier with just well scattered, light and short periods of rain possible. This includes South Hampshire, the IOW, Berkshire and north Oxfordshire.

Temperatures should reach the low twenties for many of us, with the high teens best for Cornwall. High humidity values will give a muggy feel to the day however.

another spot on forecast Mate......so do you use a crystal ball?....lol.........The highlighted bit of your post is uncannily accurate as some lively showery outbreaks are developing in the areas you highlighted streaming off the Bristol Channel,,,,,It's pouring down here now, and radar suggests an especially wet afternoon here

[wimblettben]

Just started to rain heavily here.